DISINFORMATION: Sanctions do not affect Russia, but will cause a severe economic crisis in the West

NARRATIVE: The European Union will face its worst economic crisis since World War II due to the sanctions imposed on Russia. 2. The Russian Federation is stronger than ever, with Western sanctions succeeding in strengthening the Russian economy.

CONTEXT: Just one day after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine , the European Union ratified a set of sanctions against the Kremlin, adding to those in force since 2014, adopted as a result of the annexation of Crimea and the start of the armed conflict in Donbass. The purpose of the sanctions is to weaken Russia's ability to finance its war against Ukraine and to effectively counter the capabilities it needs to carry on with the aggression. In total, the EU has imposed eight sanction packages on Russia  with a negative impact on the Russian economy, while limiting the consequences for EU businesses and citizens. The measures are designed to weaken Russia's economic base, depriving it of critical technologies and markets, without irreparably affecting the population. Thus, export and import restrictions exclude food and pharmaceutical products.

Among the most important bans are those related to Russian energy exports: banning imports of coal and crude oil from Russia, as well as capping the price of oil at $60 per barrel. Extremely sensitive to major socio-political events, the energy market has suffered several disturbances, which initially led to a galloping increase in the prices of electricity, natural gas and fuels. In the meantime, however, it has stabilized, and measures to counteract the negative effects of these increases, taken both at  the community level  and at country level , have reduced their impact to a minimum.

PURPOSE: Lowering the population's trust in the European Union, amplifying anti-European feelings, as well as exonerating Russia for the economic and humanitarian issues facing Europe.

WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: Already faced with a crisis triggered by the covid19 pandemic, Europe was forced, at the beginning of this year, to face yet another crisis, this time much more severe and with greater implications. Despite this fact, statistical data show that  the European economy continues its upward trend , even if not as strongly as predicted before the conflict. Thus, by the end of the year 2022, the EU economy will have grown by 2.7%, and is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2023. The two largest economies of the European Union, Germany and France, have registered growth in 2022, and if we talk about Romania, it recorded the second-best economic growth in the EU, after that of the Netherlands.

In 2023, Romania's GDP is expected to grow by 2.9%.

At the same time, analyzes based on objective economic indicators, and not assumptions, show that Russia is going through a period of deep crisis , which is felt at all economic levels. At macro level, the Russian GDP is expected to decline by at least 3.4% by the end of the year, and by another 2.3% in 2023, and that in an optimistic scenario.  The sanctions imposed by the Western world are producing effects  even at microeconomic level, from the modification of some sweets recipes due to the lack of key ingredients, to the decrease in Internet speed or the bankruptcy of several medium and small businesses. The Russian currency is not “more stable than ever”, it is artificially maintained at the pre-war level by increasing lending rates, but this line of monetary defense cannot be sustained in the long term. As the sanctions depreciate the Russian economy, experts say they will eventually weigh on the ruble as well. The Central Bank of Russia will not be able to keep raising interest rates indefinitely, as this will eventually put an end to lending.

In the event of a global economic recession, Russia might see its exports drop even further, as demand for its products will disappear first. This could trigger an even steeper collapse of the ruble and a rise in inflation. As far as oil exports are concerned, we are also dealing with disinformation, and this is because, although Russia's exports of crude oil and petroleum products have increased, the revenues obtained are lower.  The main reason is the drop in crude oil prices, which is bigger than the increase in exports.

In conclusion, the narratives are just another part of the Kremlin's arsenal of manipulating information and promoting disinformation about the invasion of Ukraine, with the aim of destabilizing the European Union and its member states. Although in the short term, their impact may be perceived as negative, in time, they will prove their effectiveness. Moreover, all sanctions fully respect the obligations under international law, including human rights and fundamental freedoms.