Ukraine has entered a new phase of war fatigue caused by the prolongation of hostilities. There are growing signals of a crisis among the military personnel, mistrust in the authorities, and society's difficult adjustment to a war that is lasting more than envisaged.
The concept of “deukrainization” has been increasingly used to replaced “denazification”, one of the original objectives at the start of the war, and is virtually tantamount to the eradication of Ukrainian identity
The slow pace of the counteroffensive accentuates the war weariness of the Ukrainians and their supporters, who expected quick victories. Kyiv, forced to adapt its speech to the realities on the ground.
The Ukrainian media criticizes both the West for its hesitation, as well as Zelenskyy for his failure to carry out the reforms demanded by NATO.
The Nova Kakhovka dam was destroyed using tactics the West has taught ISIS, the pro-Kremlin media writes, invoking other false narratives promoted in the past, for instance referring to Ukraine’s plans to trigger a genocide of Russian speakers or about the “terrorist” character of the Ukrainian state.
Many Ukrainians hope the war will be won thanks to the counteroffensive that is being prepared by their army. Some officials, though, seem to be trying to temper the population's expectations. In the other camp, Russia has launched a series of false counter-offensive narratives, but at the same time appears to be preparing to explain to its people a potential Ukrainian success.
After Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014, the Russian oligarchs or others close to them continued to make money in Ukraine, where they invested in telephone networks, banks, industry, the energy sector and tourism. Many of these businesses have kept bringing money to the Russians even after the February 2022 full-scale invasion.
Putin expected Ukraine to give in quickly, and the West, frightened by the prospect of a gas crisis, divided and unable to make firm decisions, would react rather rhetorically, as it happened with the war in Georgia in 2008, or the initial attack on Ukraine, in 2014. Ukraine resisted, dispelling, at the same time, the myth of the mighty Russian army, and now it only envisions victory. Both camps seem determined to fight until they achieve their goals. The war continues.
The timespan of the conflict, which exceeded original estimates, the losses sustained so far and daily hardships continue to leave their mark, and many Ukrainians now struggle with war fatigue – even though they are still determined to resist. Russian propaganda has been trying, using its specific mechanisms, to capitalize on this fatigue and on any other problems that are inherent to such a destructive war that seems to be never-ending.
The letter Z, written in paint on Russian tanks, a mural of “Holy Javelin” on a block in Kyiv, “babushka Z” coming out to meet the Russian army or the insult “Idi nahui” addressed to the invading forces – these are some of the symbols associated with the war in Ukraine. Moscow uses symbols to justify its invasion and convince Russian men to enlist; Ukraine, to raise the morale and determination to resist, but also to strengthen the population’s feeling of national identity.
In mid-January, the Russian Defense Ministry for the first time gave credit to the Wagner Group for its exploits in Ukraine. Tensions between the conventional army and the Wagner Group, whose founder criticized the war tactics of Russian generals, are common knowledge. Besides, in recent years, the Kremlin preferred to keep its dealings with the Wagner Group and its activity far from prying eyes. Recognizing the merits of this military contractor, whose very existence is illegal even in the eyes of Russian legislation, confirms the Wagner Group’s growing contribution to the war effort.
Classical disinformation themes and fake news were increasingly replaced with war propaganda as an instrument of publicizing Moscow’s false narratives. The purpose of these narratives, irrespective of how they were presented to audiences, was to manipulate public opinion, to legitimize Russia’s actions, to conceal war crimes and atrocities committed in Ukrainian settlements, to shatter the Ukrainians’ morale and fighting spirit, as well as to spread a controlled form of chaos in the proximity of ex-Soviet space.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, more than 5 million Ukrainians have crossed the Romanian border, fleeing the war. Most chose to go further west, but some decided to stay here. Officially there are 90 348 of them, but the real number could be much higher. Before arriving in Romania, many only knew what Soviet and Russian propaganda had told them, so they were amazed at what they found and how they were received. With all the help they get, however, there are problems, as the refugees find it difficult to integrate due to language barriers and many still feel the psychological impact of the drama they have been through.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has displaced a huge number of Ukrainian refugees. Millions of people fled Ukraine, heading to other European countries, although many chose to relocate to some of the country’s safer areas. Russia has been trying to turn this crisis to its advantage. In EU countries, it has been promoting false narratives designed to generate public hostility towards Ukrainian refugees. In the case of Ukrainians relocated at national level, Russian propaganda sought to focus on fueling public unrest and internal tensions.
The last round of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine as part of the war launched by Moscow took place in March and did not produce any results. For over eight months, the negotiation process is in a deadlock, neither party being willing to accept peace at any cost: both Kyiv and Moscow want victory.
Starting February 24, Russia has been using nuclear blackmail increasingly often, either via propaganda or in the discourse of various officials, from president Putin to the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. At first, Russia threatened only the West, but lately we have witnessed an increasing number of threats regarding the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Will Ukraine be capable of withstanding a possible nuclear attack and stay in the fight? Are Ukrainian authorities, the army and the people ready for this scenario?
The successful counteroffensive of the Ukrainian armed forces in the Kharkiv region was not just the result of good tactical planning, but also a consequence of pro-Ukrainian sentiment at society level, determined by the country’s history, its invaluable cultural legacy and the positive experience of the first two phases of fighting off the Russian aggression.
Putin's objective to bring the neighboring country back into Moscow's orbit and into the so-called “Russian world” seems, more than ever, doomed to failure: Ukrainians no longer believe in the possibility of a reconciliation with Russia even after the fall of the Putin regime. The majority of Ukraine's population now wants European integration, but does not seem willing to accept all the EU's conditions.
In recent months, the press in Ukraine has gone through a series of important changes, as it had to adapt to the new realities dictated by the war – funding cuts, personnel problems, involvement in the effort to mobilize the population. On the other hand, the media landscape is also feeling the impact of the “deoligarchization” law, promulgated by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in November 2021, before the start of the war.
Russia’s campaign in Russia is doubled by an information war, which among other things seeks to discourage Ukrainian resistance. Kyiv is trying to respond to this campaign, on the one hand to demoralize the enemy as well, while on the other hand to enliven Ukrainians’ fighting spirit. The protracted war, however, has prompted Ukrainian leaders to adapt their discourse.
More than 4 months after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the so-called “battle fatigue” is starting to show signs both in Ukraine and in the western world. It’s become rather obvious in politicians’ speeches, in the wear and tear of the military and civilians, in the way war is reflected in the international press and in the public's interest in war-related topics.
The war in Ukraine was launched by Russia under the pretext of de-nazifying the neighboring country. From Moscow's point of view, it should have been a quick operation ending with a regime change in Kyiv. For the Ukrainians, on the other hand, the priority in the early days was survival. Developments on the ground - and the success of the Ukrainian defense - have led to the adjustment of these objectives, which can be seen in the narratives of the two camps.
