More than 4 months after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the so-called “battle fatigue” is starting to show signs both in Ukraine and in the western world. It’s become rather obvious in politicians’ speeches, in the wear and tear of the military and civilians, in the way war is reflected in the international press and in the public's interest in war-related topics.
The Western fatigue: the conflict is turning “trivial”, the emotional impact and interest are declining, the fear of escalation is dimming
As of March-April, Kyiv seems increasingly aware that there is a risk that a “battle fatigue” will soon start setting in, leading to lesser western support for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky, his spokespeople, representatives of the Foreign Ministry and independent experts have tried, in their speeches, to prevent or at least postpone this phenomenon and reduce its impact.
Recently, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba has somehow justified the fatigue in the West, mentioning in an article for the American magazine “Foreign Affairs” that it is natural for people and governments to lose interest in conflicts, as they get prolonged. He recalls the wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen, stressing that Ukraine deserves the support of the West in defeating Russia. It’s the first time that this fatigue phenomenon is recognized by a Ukrainian official.
It is not hard to see that the war in Ukraine is gradually disappearing from the front pages of international publications, being replaced by domestic policy related topics. This process can also be observed in the countries with which Ukraine shares borders and which have been supporting it a lot: Poland, Romania, Slovakia.
The press chooses its subjects according to the public interest, and people have reached a stage where they want something else (too), either because they’ve started to lose interest in the war, or because they can no longer cope with the psychological discomfort generated by so much tragic news. To some extent, what’s been happening in the Ukrainian press since 2014,when Russia annexed Crimea and invaded the Luhansk and Donetsk regions through its mercenaries, is currently being replicated in the European press. The war narratives are becoming trivial.
From March 2014 to February 2022, Ukrainian society had become so accustomed to the daily news of the Donbas conflict that it seemed like a major Russian-Ukrainian war would never happen.
The same has happened in the European media, and the audience is getting used to the news about the war in Ukraine. The Western public is slowly coming to terms with the idea that war is a constant in the vicinity of the EU, but not a direct threat though. But so did people living in cities in the Lviv region in western Ukraine, far from the Donbas, before being hit by Putin's missiles.
Unless effective strategies are found to support Kiev, the West risks condemning Ukraine to „slow strangulation”, according to an analysis by The Guardian. Referring to the tired and electorally divided West, the publication writes that it is necessary to rethink the support strategy for Ukraine in order to avoid a conflict that will last for years. As for Kyiv, it is trying to maintain the West’s interest by stressing that if Ukraine fails, the Russian Federation will choose other victims in Eastern Europe.
The Ukrainians’ fatigue, caused by the wear and tear of the fighting and the prospect of a long-term conflict
Battle fatigue is another enemy alongside the Russian occupier, said in an interview with the Ukrainian press the adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Viktor Andrusiv. According to his observations, the fatigue has become evident not only in the EU, Great Britain and the USA, but also inside the Ukrainian society.
According to Andrusiv, fatigue could be a huge problem for Ukraine: “If the soldiers get tired, it will be increasingly harder for them to defend the country. If the volunteers get tired, they will no longer support the army. If our Western partners get tired, they will start thinking about negotiations. The risk of fatigue is very high”.
The Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine has stated that Ukrainian society is going through a phase of adaptation and it is about to realize that this conflict could keep going on and on.
After the initial shock of the Russian attack passed, and Kyiv's forces showed that they were able to resist and even push the Russians back, most Ukrainians were waiting for a quick peace. Many believed that the Western sanctions on Russia would have an immediate effect, that as more and more young Russians were sent home in coffins, the mothers of the Russian soldiers would take to the streets in protest, and that in the face of internal and external pressure, the Kremlin would end the war.
Most Russians, though, have continued to support the Putin regime and the war, and the impact of sanctions is diminished by Russia's high revenues from oil sales, amid rising prices on international markets.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has urged Ukrainians to prepare for a long war, and Kyiv National Security and Defense Council President Oleksii Danilov has said Ukraine will study the Israeli defense model in the context of the ongoing state of war in that country.
Ukrainians are having a hard time getting used to this paradigm shift. The authorities' confident statements about the inevitability of victory and the recovery of the territories occupied by Russia contradict, in the collective mind, the statements about a long war.
This fatigue is not only caused by political statements. The growing number of civilian casualties, the accelerated enlistment of men in the army against the background of many being lost in battle, the impoverishment of the population, the shortage of fuel and food, unemployment, etc., have all contributed to it. All these difficulties substantially reduce citizens’ motivation.
Moreover, Ukraine covers only 60% of the expenditure provided by the state budget, without taking into account defense spending , and inflation has exceeded 18%, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhii Marcenko has announced. A month costs Kiev about 5 billion dollars, and the prolongation of the military conflict means an inevitable economic suffocation.
Lessons from the past: dictators exploit democracies’ fatigue
Military analysts are talking about the need for a turning point in the war, after which the Ukrainian army would take the initiative. For this to be possible, however, significant deliveries of Western armaments are needed. Until then, the Ukrainian forces - especially those in Donbas, where Russia is clearly superior in terms of artillery, which it uses to virtually level down the localities it takes by storm - are increasingly exhausted and risk losing their motivation.
Ukraine has to go through another important stage - adapting the economy, society, education, culture, politics, the press to the state of war, accustoming society to the idea that war could last for many years and that a quick peace is unlikely.
The Ukrainians’ fatigue can have effects on the West and the other way round. A significant part of the support that Kyiv has received since the outbreak of the war has been due to the fact that Ukrainians have shown that they are able to resist and are highly motivated. On the other hand, the mobilization of the West - which has sent weapons that proved extremely useful, assisted refugees, sanctioned and isolated Russia - encouraged the Ukrainians, showing them that they are not alone in the face of Moscow's aggression.
A chronic fatigue on Ukraine’s part, accentuated by that of a West increasingly preoccupied with domestic political games, can lead to a chain reaction that will eventually lead to a significant decrease in Kyiv's fighting capacity and will.
Perhaps we should not forget that a West tired of the First World War and the Great Depression allowed the outbreak of the Second World War through territorial surrenders and compromises in front of dictators whose appetite would increase every time they got something. The fatigue 80 years ago cost the world millions of lives.
