In mid-January, the Russian Defense Ministry for the first time gave credit to the Wagner Group for its exploits in Ukraine. Tensions between the conventional army and the Wagner Group, whose founder criticized the war tactics of Russian generals, are common knowledge. Besides, in recent years, the Kremlin preferred to keep its dealings with the Wagner Group and its activity far from prying eyes. Recognizing the merits of this military contractor, whose very existence is illegal even in the eyes of Russian legislation, confirms the Wagner Group’s growing contribution to the war effort.
The “no man’s army” that invaded Donbas in 2014
Ukraine was the first country where the Wagner Group was field-tested, as early as 2014, when Wagner mercenaries fought side-by-side with pro-Russian rebel forces in Donbas. At the time, Wagner was called a “no man’s army”, even though it was obviously taking orders from Moscow.
The war in Syria followed, when Wagner mercenaries were used as infantry forces. Later, the Group took part in a series of conflicts in Africa (Sudan, Mali, the Central African Republic), where the main stake of operations was to exploit the region’s mineral resources. At the same time, Wagner also helps expand Russia’s perceived military strength to all these regions of the world, also allowing the Kremlin to somehow distance itself from certain actions and operations (but not casualties) that it doesn’t want to be associated with in public. All these benefits come at no cost, without the Russian state ever having to pay for Wagner’s external campaigns.
The Wagner Group is funded and controlled by the Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, also known as Vladimir Putin’s “chef”, who is also in charge of the “troll farm” in Saint Petersburg – perhaps the best known hub for spreading online disinformation before the war. Prigozhin is a symbol of Putin’s favor system: he funds the troll farm, controls the Wagner Group and takes care of other initiatives, but in return gets to use his businesses to attract public funding and provide warm meals to every school and kindergarten in the Russian capital, as well as to the army.
The war in Ukraine forced Russia to recognize the Wagner Group
After Russia invaded Ukraine, for a long time the Kremlin denied any involved of the Wagner Group in the war. On May 1, 2022, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said the Wagner Group did not operate on the territory of Ukraine, and that this was a disinformation narrative promoted by Kyiv.
“There is a great number of Western mercenaries over there. Talks about the presence of the Wagner Group in Ukraine are meant to draw attention away from what our Western colleagues are doing”, Lavrov said at the time. The Russian top diplomat also responded to France’s accusations that Wagner is also fighting in Mali, explaining that Russian mercenaries were invited to this country to keep the peace. He added that Moscow does not answer for the actions of the Wagner Group as this is a “private military company”.
In July, Russian correspondents in eastern Ukraine already spoke about the achievements of the Wagner Group, which had managed to destroy “an observation center of Ukrainian neo-Nazis” at the thermal power plant in Uglegorsk. Also around this time, the British Ministry of Defense made public a report according to which the Wagner Group was responsible for certain areas of the frontline due to the shortage of military personnel. “The new level of integration of the Group in the army’s structures undermines the policy of Russian authorities to deny the link between the state and this private military contractor”, the British Ministry stated.
The Group’s public legitimization by Russian authorities occurred on January 13, when the Russian Defense Ministry for the first time acknowledged the merits of Wagner mercenaries in a number of successful skirmishes in Ukrainian territory. The Ministry particularly praised the bravery of Wagner combatants in the “liberation” of Soledar in Donbas. This “legitimization” of the Wagner Group by the army somewhat came as a surprise, given the notorious tensions between Prigozhin and army generals. In fact, a few days before, Prigozhin had for the first time claimed his troops were now in control of Soledar, an information publicly denied by the army, which announced that fighting is ongoing in the region, suggesting that it is regular troops, not the Wagner Group, that are bearing the brunt of the battle for Soledar.
An army of inmates attacking in waves, with no regard for casualties
In September 2022, the Russian independent publication Meduza published a video recorded in a prison, where Prigozhin addressed a group of inmates. “You must have probably heard of the Wagner Group. The war is very difficult. It’s nothing compared to the wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya. The rate of spent ammo is twice as much as in Stalingrad”, Prigozhin said. He promised inmates freedom in exchange for joining his outfit.
During other visits made to Russian penitentiaries during the summer, Prigozhin was allegedly accompanied by other representatives of the Wagner Group. According to witnesses, Putin’s “chef” told inmates he was under special orders from the president to win the war in Ukraine.
In mid-January, the Ukrainian media wrote that Russian officials have now started visiting women’s penal colonies with a view to drafting more inmates. Furthermore, there are reports of a group of women from Krasnodar who were sent to the frontline in December, with little knowledge of what happened to them next.
No one knows exactly how many inmates have so far decided to join the Wagner Group, although various estimates put their numbers between a few thousand and as much as twenty thousand. Similarly, it is unclear how many of these inmates were killed in Ukraine. The United States estimated that in the Bakhmut – Soledar area alone, over 4,000 Wagner fighters were reportedly killed. Naturally, given their large share in the ranks of the organization, inmates account for an important part of losses. The Ukrainian army has repeatedly talked about the tactics used by the Group – sending waves of attacks on their positions in Bakhmut – Soledar – accusing the Russians of disregarding casualties and literally advancing by stepping over the bodies of those in the front line. The information is hard to verify from independent sources, given the brutal side of fighting, which makes it near impossible for the press to be on the ground. However, the magnitude of casualties, admitted by Prigozhin himself, suggests that Ukrainians are telling the truth. Nevertheless, drafting efforts continue, all the more so as earlier this year a group of inmates was pardoned after completing their six-month service in Ukraine.
Inmates recruited by Wagner were purportedly involved or helped carry out public executions, tortures and other war crimes.
Prigozhin’s goals: more money and more power
Yevgeny Prigozhin did not set up (and is not using) his mercenary outfit out of patriotism. His goals have economic and political underpinnings: he wants more money and more power. Wagner’s involvement in African conflicts with a view to securing access to mineral resources has been documented for years. The United States claim Prigozhin is now trying to do the same in Ukraine, and his obsession for Bakhmut – Soledar also has to do with the fact that the area is rich in plaster and salt deposits. Obviously, Bakhmut is also a point of strategic importance, as it can be used to springboard offensive maneuvers against Sloviansk, although any tactical benefits entailed by its possible capture (or by capturing Soledar) are not as significant as to warrant the heavy casualties sustained by the Russians. International and Ukrainian observers have repeatedly pointed out that Russia desperately needs a win, considering that its latest notable victories were reported this summer in Donbas at great human costs. Since then, Russia has been constantly pushed back by Ukrainian counter-offensives. And this is exactly Prigozhin’s political goal – to provide his boss, Vladimir Putin, with a win. This goal should be understood as part of Prigozhin’s broader efforts to prove that the Wagner Group is far more effective than Russia’s regular troops.
It is also in connection with of this struggle to gain Putin’s favor (and even perhaps securing a position that would one day make him Putin’s successor) that we should understand Prigozhin’s criticism of Sergey Shoigu, himself a part of the inner circle and a possible successor to the Russian president.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, after capturing Soledar, the Kremlin allegedly recognized Prigozhin’s symbolic victory against Shoigu, highlighting the merits of the Wagner Group. Still, Vladimir Putin will not allow the Wagner financier to enjoy widespread popularity for fear it might overshadow his own political reputation.
At the same time, the Secretary of Ukraine’s Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, believes Moscow will continue to rely on the Wagner Group for its war effort, although it will try to keep Yevgeny Prigozhin away from the eyes of the media. Putin fears any and all political competition, which is why he might endorse the Wagner Group as his personal project, belittling the merits of the coordinator of this campaign. Oleksiy Danilov also said that professional Russian servicemen are unhappy for having to communicate and work together with inmates from the Wagner Group.
The Wagner Group and Russia as a pariah state
After nearly eleven months of war, the Wagner Group turned from a secret and hybrid army without any official allegiance into a genuine “success story” in Russia. In fact, Yevgeny Prigozhin was publicly boasting that his mercenaries “make up the most experienced army in the world”.
Public recognition of Wagner’s merits suggests that Moscow will increasingly rely on Prigozhin’s methods. A military force with an (at best) uncertain legal status, made up largely of criminals and led by a former inmate who cares little about the livelihood of his own men, is hardly expected to observe international warfare regulations. After all, the Wagner Group proved its brutality and disrespect for human rights long before the outburst of the large-scale war in Ukraine: why should it act any differently now, when even Russia’s conventional army is committing war crimes?
The massive recruitment of inmates and Prigozhin’s own criminal history have turned the Wagner Group into a hybrid between a mercenary outfit and a criminal organization. Its war crimes add a new dimension reminding of terrorist cells.
By associating itself with such entities, the Kremlin slips further off-track and consolidates its image as an international pariah and a promoter of state terrorism.
Also read The Wagner Group: the “no man’s army” fighting Russia’s hybrid war
