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Almost six months since Russia invaded Ukraine, sociological studies show that Putin's goal of bringing the neighboring country back into Moscow's orbit and into the so-called “Russian world”: seems, more than ever, doomed to failure: Ukrainians no longer believe in the possibility of a reconciliation with Russia even after the fall of the Putin regime. If in the first months of the invasion Ukrainians wanted to see a quickly defeated Russian army and a Russian society awakened from the illusions created by the state propaganda, now most want Ukraine’s full, long-term and irreversible breakaway from Russia and the Russian people. Moreover, the Ukrainians seem to have gotten used to the idea that the war will be a long one.
Despite the total rupture in the relation between Ukrainian society and the Russian cultural and mental past, a process triggered by the war, the immediate rapprochement with the EU is still seen by Ukrainians as one that can be postponed, in order to defend national interests in the negotiations with Brussels. Some membership criteria are being questioned.
Finally, the barometers also reveal that, at least for the time being, Ukrainians are willing to accept the economic difficulties the country is going through, as they consider the struggle for independence to be a priority.
Disappointed by the Russians’ passivity, the Ukrainians will no longer want reconciliation even if the Putin regime falls
79% of Ukrainians believe that the Russian-Ukrainian border should be closed , and the Russians who would want to enter the territory of Ukraine in the future should be forced to apply for a special visa, according to a survey conducted by the International Institute of Sociology in Kyiv. Immediately after the start of the war against Ukraine, only 44% of respondents said the borders should be closed. In other words, during these months of military confrontation, the number of Ukrainians who want to isolate themselves and defend themselves not only from the Russian army, but also from all Russian citizens has increased significantly.
At the same time, despite the war, 1% of Ukrainians still believe in the project of uniting Ukraine with Russia into one state, compared to 5% in February. Only 11% of Ukrainians still believe that Russia and Ukraine could one day have friendly relations.
The six months of war have triggered a wave of hatred not only towards the Russian leadership, but also towards the Russian citizens. If in February-March various Ukrainian artists, opinion leaders, journalists and sportsmen were calling on the Russian citizens “to stop Putin’s war” , in July-August a wave of disappointment with the Russians’ ability to think independently and influence political decisions has been rising. Step by step, all Russian citizens have started to be seen as guilty of the atrocities perpetrated on the territory of Ukraine.
For these reasons, various articles by Ukrainian intellectuals explaining why Russians and Ukrainians have never been brotherly peoples have gone viral on social media. The thesis about historical brotherhood is described as a Soviet myth, fueled by Russian propaganda.
The sociological landscape presented by the analysts is already influencing the political life in Ukraine. An electronic petition has been registered on the website of the President of Ukraine demanding a ban on the entry of citizens of the Russian Federation into the territory of Ukraine for the next 50 years. So far, the petition has been signed by more than 27,000 people, and Zelensky will review it.
The deputy director of the International Institute of Sociology in Kyiv, Anton Grushetki, believes that the latest opinion polls have a historical significance for Ukraine. The specialist believes that “Ukrainians are saying good-bye to the Russian Empire”, which still partially existed in the collective mind.
For the first time in the history of Ukraine, those who still believe in friendly relations with Russia are the absolute minority. The war launched by Moscow on the territory of Ukraine has alienated all Ukrainians, regardless of language and ethnicity, from the “Russian world” project promoted by the Kremlin in recent decades.
EU accession, but not at any cost
81% of Ukrainians would vote in a referendum for joining the EU and 71% for NATO accession. Ukrainian citizens are aware of the fact that they are dying on the battlefield for a European future of their state - in fact, Russia's assault on Ukraine began after the triumph of Euromaidan, a movement that arose precisely from the Ukrainians’ desire to see their country join the EU one day. However, this desire for integration in the European space does not mean adhering to all European values. Asked by sociologists whether Ukraine urgently needs to meet all the EU requirements for membership, 62% of the citizens surprisingly replied that Ukraine should defend its own interests and not agree to some criteria, even if the accession process is thus delayed. Only 31% said that Ukraine must adopt all the laws required by the EU and become a member state as soon as possible.
The national pride generated by resistance on the battlefield directly influences society's attitude towards the West. The figures above show that 2/3 of Ukrainians do not want membership at any cost. According to analysts with Kyiv’s International Institute of Sociology, Ukrainians agree with the EU's demands on fighting corruption, deoligarchization, and justice reform, but reject any discussion on patriotic values or national and linguistic identity. The criteria ensuring access to education in the mother tongues of all national minorities might also be rejected. Ukrainians believe that these issues can be negotiated with the EU.
Military successes contribute to the Ukrainians' intransigence towards the Russians, but Moscow has another ace up its sleeve: the energy weapon
Ukrainians' confidence in victory is still quite high. According to a poll conducted by Info Sapiens, 90% of Ukrainians believe in Kyiv’s victory (71% are absolutely certain).
The Ukrainian society wants to get back the territories occupied by Russia after February 24. The recovery of Crimea, occupied and annexed by Russia in 2014, does not yet enjoy the same support, but the percentage of Ukrainians who believe that the war must end with the recovery of all lost territories has been increasing by the day. In March, 75% of Ukrainians said they did not accept the surrender of Crimea in the name of peace; in July, the percentage had risen to 89%. It seems obvious that the more the Ukrainians succeed in liberating localities in southern or eastern Ukraine, the more the idea of territorial cessions will be rejected.
However, the population's perceptions are not only influenced by what happens on the front, but also by what happens behind it, by everyday life. In the context of the war, according to a study conducted by the Rating company, 86% of Ukrainians are pessimistic and perceive a worsening of the economic situation . Only a quarter of them think the situation will improve starting next year.At the same time, Ukrainians are aware that the economic crisis is generated by the war started by Russia, and economic pessimism coexists with society's conviction that all socio-political developments in Ukraine are correct. The Rating sociological group shows that 73% of Ukrainians believe that things are going in the right direction.However, public opinion may begin to change with the coming of winter, if the war continues until then. Russia still has an ace up its sleeve: the energy weapon. Russia has shown that it aims to disconnect some regions from electricity through cyber-attacks, disconnect power plants from the Ukrainian energy grid, destroy heating plants in Ukrainian towns in the center and east of the country, reduce Ukraine's electricity export capacities.
A winter spent in the cold, amid a protracted war and a severe economic crisis, could undermine the population's morale and change its perceptions once again.
