The political crisis in Chișinău ended virtually just before starting. After months of hearing rumors about Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilița being set for replacement, the Moldovan official tendered her resignation Friday at noon. Less than three hours later, president Maia Sandu announced she was entrusting her national security adviser, Dorin Recean, with the task of setting up a new government. Recean’s validation in Parliament is expected to be a mere formality, as the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) holds the majority.
The power shift has so far unfolded without any major incident or scandal, and the key protagonists – the outgoing Prime Minister, Natalia Gavrilița, the Prime Minister designate, Dorin Recean, and president Maia Sandu – said that the change of administration occurs against the backdrop of growing security tensions. There are however signs that the true reasons behind the Cabinet swap have to do with the slow pace of reforms and ruling-party infighting.
Resignation or veiled dismissal? The sluggish reform of the judiciary, one of the causes behind the Prime Minister swap
Media speculation about a possible resignation of the Cabinet led by Natalia Gavrilița was circulated as early as November, after a late-night meeting at the Moldovan Presidency, attended by members of the government and leading PAS officials. The outcome, however, did not go farther than a minor government reshuffle, Economy Minister Sergiu Gaibu being replaced with Dumitru Alaiba.
This time, for once, speculation turned to fact. Just like last year, on February 10, the president called an early-morning meeting with cabinet ministers and top-ranking PAS members. At 1 PM, Natalia Gavrilița went public about stepping down.
Gavrilița praised the activity of her Cabinet and touted its achievements. The outgoing Prime Minister also spoke highly of her Cabinet’s successful cooperation with European organizations.
“As always, I have been shown that the Republic of Moldova is no short of friends in Brussels, and that the EU is waiting for us to join with arms wide open. If the government had enjoyed the same support and confidence at home that our European partners have shown, we would have made progress significantly faster”, Natalia Gavrilița said, without explaining what exactly she was referring to – the constant criticism of the pro-Russian opposition or internal tension at the level of the pro-European party, which have been the object of rumors for many months in Chișinău.
After Natalia Gavrilița’s resignation, both Maia Sandu and Parliament Speaker Igor Grosu praised the Cabinet she led. It is clear, however, that no government is removed without some serious motives, and Natalia Gavrilița had long been rumored to be the target of pressure to step down.
The Gavrilița Cabinet was sworn in on August 6, 2021, when Moldovan society was barely recovering after the pandemic. Her government had to deal with multiple overlapping crises, first and foremost generated by Russia’s war against Ukraine, which Moscow had been preparing in 2021. These included the security crisis, the energy crisis, rampant inflation, losing access to eastern markets, the crisis of Ukrainian refugees and others.
In spite of these many challenges, analysts say, the Gavrilița Cabinet endured, by and large overcoming the delicate situation that the Republic of Moldova found itself in due to the war.
The biggest achievement of the Gavrilița Cabinet was securing EU candidate status, which was admittedly for its most part the result of the geopolitical reconfiguration of the European continent. Another achievement was unlocking international assistance mechanisms, owing to which the Republic of Moldova managed to cope with the energy crisis and partially subsidize energy bills for household users this winter.
On the other hand, the same analysts warn that the reform of the judiciary, one of the top priorities in the governing program of the Gavrilița Cabinet, has been slow in producing any results. Several high-profile court trials have been dragging on for years for this reason, some targeting controversial politicians such as Vlad Plahotniuc and Ilan Shor, former president Igor Dodon or businessman Veaceslav Platon.
Some of the decisions taken by deputy Prime Minister Andrei Spîinu were equally the object of controversy, such as the contract signed with Gazprom in 2021, or another contract signed last year with Transnistria, whereby Moldova pledged to deliver gas in exchange for electricity. The latter prompted Maia Sandu to publicly criticize the government.
Dorin Recean, the iron-fisted politician Moldova needs to solve its security issues and to restructure reform-resistant institutions
Not three hours away from Natalia Gavrilița’s resignation, president Maia Sandu designated Dorin Recean as the country’s new Prime Minister. At the time, Recean was a presidential adviser on national security and defense matters and also served as secretary of the Supreme Security Council. Over 2012-2015, when the Republic of Moldova had to undertake a number of major reforms in order to secure visa-free travel across the European Union. Recean at the time served as Interior Minister. Many of these reforms, seen as a success in the eyes of most experts, directly involved the ministry led by Dorin Recean.
Maia Sandu said that threats to Moldova’s security as well as the energy crisis facing the Republic of Moldova were the reasons behind the change of regime. The new Cabinet will have to focus its efforts on revitalizing the economy and to accelerate the reform of the justice system, the president said.
In turn, Dorin Recean said that his priorities include ensuring order and discipline in public institutions and helping the economy recover, ensuring peace and stability. “We need to consolidate the security sector, so that everyone should feel safe”, the Prime Minister designate said.
Even Natalia Gavrilița invoked security concerns when she announced her resignation, saying that “the Republic of Moldova enters a new phase when security is the country’s top priority – energy security, economic security, cybersecurity and social security”.
Recean’s designation indeed occurred against the backdrop of growing tensions in the Republic of Moldova, primarily caused by the war in neighboring Ukraine.
At least seven incidents involving Russian missiles have been reported in recent months, in four of which cases missiles transited Moldova’s air space. Clusters from another three missiles were discovered in the immediate vicinity of the Ukrainian border.
Furthermore, since the start of the war, Moldova has received regular threats from Russia, which was allegedly considering the destabilization of Moldova by means of its agents and even a possible invasion. More recently, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the European Council, claiming Kyiv’s intelligence had actually intercepted one of Moscow’s secret plans to destabilize the Republic of Moldova. The Moldovan Intelligence and Security Service confirmed that their Ukrainian counterparts had shared this information.
Another recent signal also came from Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, who said that the West was grooming the Republic of Moldova to be “the next Ukraine”. The same West, Sergey Lavrov argues, had “installed” at the helm of the Republic of Moldova a president (Maia Sandu, e.n.) who is “willing to join NATO” and is ready “for virtually anything”, including a unification with Romania.
Under these circumstances, replacing Natalia Gavrilița with Dorin Recean appears to be the logical move.
Dorin Recean has no intention on focusing on security alone: he himself pointed out that European integration remains “the central pillar of his governing program”. “We need to accelerate the process of bringing national legislation in line with European law. We need to implement all the prerequisites [demanded by the European Union so that the Republic of Moldova can officially start negotiation talks] but, mind you, not just to scratch them off our list, but because this is truly the only way to bring prosperity to Moldova”, Dorin Recean said.
In other words, Recean seems determined to implement reforms in any sector where this process often stalled. The fact that he is seen as an iron-fisted politician should not be underestimated: apart from security, economic and energy issues, the Prime Minister designate has also expressed willingness to deal with what he has termed “order and discipline in public institutions”. Which in Chișinău usually translates into doing away with system resistance or opposition. To put it another way, Recean wants to determine public employees, first and foremost judges and prosecutors with serious integrity issues, to leave state institutions before turning them into truly efficient state-controlled entities.
