The Visegrad Group (V4) acted, for years, in concert to give the populist leaders of Central European countries some levarage against the other EU countries. The war in Ukraine caused a rift within the V4, as Hungary prefered to preserve as much as possible its relationship with Russia, much to the dismay of its partners.
V4 - a populist counterweight to the major EU powers
The Visegrad Group, which includes four Central European countries – the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary – has been in existence for more than thirty years. Its original aim was to facilitate the path to European integration for these post-communist countries.
After their accession to the European Union and NATO, cooperation has continued, and in recent years the V4 has often functioned as well as an alliance that has been seen as problematic within the EU – especially concerning migration issues.
As recently as last year, cooperation within the group was strong. The Czech Republic was ruled until the end of last year by Andrej Babiš, who had very close relations with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (who even supported Babiš personally in the election campaign) and always stressed the importance of the Visegrad Group in Czech foreign policy.
The two populist leaders managed to find common ground when it came to negotiations within the European Union, for example, on migration quotas, which have long been rejected by the entire V4 – Babiš still repeats the myth that he and Orbán "abolished quotas" at four in the morning in Brussels.
"We placed special emphasis on the cooperation of the V4 countries, which acted as a counterweight to the big countries in the EU, especially Germany and France. At the Brussels talks, we finally helped bury refugee quotas, fought against illegal migration and against efforts to abolish unanimity in decision-making," Babiš said in retrospect after he lost the elections.
Cooperation within the Visegrad Group was not even affected by the Czech-Polish disputes over the operation of the Turów mine during the Babiš era. After the change in power in Prague, the new prime minister, Petr Fiala (ODS, civic democrats), quickly settled the disputes with Poland, and soon after his accession concluded an agreement with Warsaw regarding the Turów mine. And more, Fiala's ODS has long been close to the Law and Justice party, which governs Poland.
Its stance on the war in Ukraine made Hungary the odd one out within the V4
The functioning of the V4 essentially froze this spring. The main contention point is how to approach Russian aggression in Ukraine and Russia itself. The Czech Republic and Poland are among the most active states in the entire European Union in the support of Ukraine – not only with arms supplies, but also in the symbolical way. In mid-March, Prime Ministers Petr Fiala and Mateusz Morawiecki (along with the Slovenian prime minister Janez Janša) were the first ever statesmen to travel to Kiev. In a symbolic gesture, they wanted, among other things, to support the Ukrainians in their fight against the aggressor.
Hungary, on the other hand, has been very cautious in its relations with Russia, putting the brakes on anti-Russian sanctions and refusing to send weapons to Ukraine and also refusing to let weapons shipments transit its territory.
This discrepancy has led to several sharp messages from other members of the Visegrad Group towards Hungary. "I believe that after the elections Hungary will take a more active role in dealing with Russian aggression in Ukraine. Europe must be united and stand up for Ukraine, on whose territory Russia is committing war crimes," Fiala said, assessing the outcome of the April elections in Hungary.
"Hungary must decide on whose side it will stand and whether it belongs to the EU and NATO," wrote even more openly Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský, who was nominated by the Pirate Party, on the same occasion. Recently, Lipavsky described as "unacceptable" the position of the Hungarian government, which has long refused to support any sanctions against Russian energy sector.
At the beginning of April, Defence Minister Jana Černochová even refused to come to Hungary for a V4 meeting. She explained this by the upcoming elections. "I have always supported the V4 and I am very sorry that cheap Russian oil is now more important to Hungarian politicians than Ukrainian blood," the minister said.
Markéta Pekarová Adamová (TOP 09), Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, was very harsh towards Hungary. She wrote before the April elections that she hoped the Hungarians would "expel" Viktor Orbán. "He does not hesitate to forge dubious alliances with countries such as Russia and China, to the detriment of his allies, including us. It is important for the Czech Republic that Hungary votes for change in the April elections," she wrote. This has not happened. As for the V4, the Speaker of the House hopes for continued cooperation despite Hungary's current position. "Visegrád will therefore survive Orbán," she said in a recent interview with Euractiv, but she does not want to stick to the Visegrád group alone.
“It is good to look, and we are doing so, for other alliances and partnerships. In the current situation, with the war in Ukraine, we have many links with the Baltic States and the Poles in particular. In some aspects, we are very much in agreement with Slovakia, for example. I think there are many more alliances and we should not stick to the V4 format. Moreover, I have personal experience, and many of my colleagues also have, that the Hungarians have often hidden behind the V4 in recent years," she said.
President Miloš Zeman strongly opposed these remarks by the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies at a meeting with Hungarian President Katalin Novák on 7 June. According to Zeman, the Orbán government "respects the national interests of its country and is not subject to foreign influence". Both presidents supported the continued functioning of the Visegrad Group. "Central Europe is a natural environment for us, which calls for cooperation between the Visegrad countries. I think it's a hidden force within the whole of Europe," Novak said on the matter.
But Hungary's pro-Russian policies are also causing resentment in other members countries of Visegrad Group. "When someone protests against sanctions against Russia, whether it is Germany or Hungary, we are equally outraged. We must not stick our heads in the sand. If all countries defended security the way Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom, the war would be over today," said, for example, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger said he was "disappointed" by some of Hungary's statements on the issue. Minister of foreign affairs Ivan Korčok told it more diplomatically. "The fact is that now Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have a common position on the most important security-political issue and Hungary is trying to keep its distance. (...) As for the future of the V4, I feel that we need to focus more on practical cooperation inside rather than creating the unrealistic impression that the V4 has its own foreign policy or even that the V4 is some kind of bloc within NATO and the EU."
The V4 is less significant than touted
Even before the war, there were indications that the real significance of Visegrad cooperation might be less than the politicians' statements might make it seem. "But if you ask foreign policy professionals about their countries' closest allies in the EU, you will find that they often perceive relations with partners outside the V4 as stronger. Thus, according to Czechs, Germany and Austria are closer allies than Hungary," wrote Pavlina Janebová, research director of the Association for International Affairs (AMO) for Euractiv. She interpreted the results of the survey by the AMO who asked analysts, officials, politicians, journalists and businessmen.
"The results of the survey (...) in no way show that the respondents do not think Visegrad cooperation is important or useful. However, it should be viewed critically and only as one of the (more or less dominant) foreign policy partnerships of the participating countries, not as a basis for their engagement in the European Unon," she summarised.
Moreover, before the war, the dividing line was rather between the Czech Republic and Slovakia on the one hand, and Poland and Hungary on the other. The latter two countries faced proceedings by the European Commission for violating the rule of law and EU values, while Hungary was criticised for its discriminatory attitudes towards sexual minorities.
The war has thus rather exposed a new rift, while the previous ones have receded into the background for a while. This may not last long, however, as the Czech Republic will take over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union on 1 July and will have to take a clearer stance on rule of law issues, which the previous government of Andrej Babiš was rather reluctant to address due to the then prime-minister’s special relations with Hungary.
So what does the future hold for the Visegrad Group? It is difficult to predict; it always depends on the specific governments in each country and external circumstances. However, we can assume that cooperation in this format will not cease completely, as the group has experienced different governments and periods of decline in its thirty years of existence.
