After Sunday’s general elections, Boyko Borissov’s GERB came back on top but is left to the oldest Bulgarian dilemma – whether to lean towards the West or the East. Borissov has been rebranding himself as more critical towards Russia, but past corruption allegation make it hard for him to find partners. Pro-Russian parties also increased their clout, but they have no chance of forming a majority.
A Squid Game in Sofia
A recent meme put a still from the South Korean survival hit series Squid Game next to the words “your next task is to create a stable government in Bulgaria”. It indeed looks like an impossible mission: while the country has been in a continuous deadlock, the dynamics between the parties change fast and yesterdays’ friends quickly become tomorrows’ foes.
Last Sunday, Bulgarians headed to polls to vote for the fourth general election in less than two years, with the latest crisis unfolding after Kiril Petkov’s coalition was ousted under suspicious circumstances. Bulgarians did that with even less enthusiasm than usual: only 39%, the lowest turnout ever recorded in the country.
GERB, the main presence in local politics from 2009-2021 and led by controversial ex-PM Boyko Borissov, won the elections in a stand-off with Kiril Petkov’s We Continue the Change.
Petkov’s party seems to be falling victim to unfulfilled reforms during their seven-month governance, widespread anxiety over the inflation and impossibility to control the narrative in their favor. This only served Borissov, whose campaign created a halo over the party as a symbol of easier and peaceful times with no war, illnesses or financial troubles. The populist approach worked like a charm.
Borissov softens the tone to Petkov
While most observers expected either split elections in early 2023 or a coalition between GERB, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms and pro-Russia far-righters Revival, Borissov made a surprising move by calling for a “Euro-Atlantic coalition”, suggesting his willingness to enter coalition-building talks with his main opponents (We Continue the Change, Democratic Bulgaria).
"The most important thing is to see who's with Putin, and who isn't", said Borissov a day after the elections, adding that this time he’s not chasing the Prime Minister job nor any ministerial position. Borissov also distanced himself from previous stances such as being against imposing sanctions on Russia and his reluctance to solve Bulgaria's previous gas dependency on Moscow, which ended during Petkov's cabinet. Regarding future coalition talks, Borissov also said that “I’m not crossing out anyone”.
Borissov already worked to clean his international image, tarnished by various allegations of corruption and criminal ties. During the elections campaign, GERB were endorsed by Russian opposition figure Gary Kasparov who called them the “only party that has a strong position against the war in Ukraine and the Russian aggression.”
Petkov and the party’s co-leader Assen Vassilev reconfirmed several times that they won’t enter coalition talks with Borissov because of “basic values we won’t betray”.
Who’s who in the next Bulgarian Parliament?
On Wednesday, the Central Election Commission announced the final results of the elections last Sunday.
While most of the parties are those that formed the National Assembly in the last two years, the dynamics are very different - GERB are on a comeback trail, We Continue the Change are losing some of their voter base and July 2021 winners There’s Such a People, founded by popular entertainer Slavi Trifonov, could not muster enough support to even enter the parliament.
GERB wins the popular yet highly fragmented vote with 25.3 per cent and will have the biggest presence in the parliament - 67 seats.
Borissov’s party is followed by rivals and reformists We Continue the Change, whose cabinet including Democratic Bulgaria and the Bulgarian Socialist Party was ousted in June. Despite winning in Sofia, at national level Kiril Petkov’s We Continue the Change came in second with 20.2.
The Movement for Rights and Freedoms, DPS, a party focused on the Turkish diaspora and associated with numerous controversies, is running third with 13.8 per cent.
Pro-Moscow far-right party Revival (Vazrazhdane), which boldly marketed itself as a potential new first power, is after all making its best showing yet with 10.2 per cent.
The Bulgarian Socialist Party, also aligned to Moscow, took 9.3 per cent of the vote, a rather disappointing result for the party which is experiencing a voter drought and increasing internal conflicts.
Democratic Bulgaria, a pro-EU alliance which is the closest ally of We Continue the Chance, came in fifth with 7.4 per cent - a better performance in comparison to the elections in November.
There will be a newcomer in the parliament: Bulgarian Rise, a pro-Moscow party founded by former interim prime minister and presidential adviser Stefan Yanev, who turned against Kiril Petkov after being ousted for calling the war “military operation” in February. Bulgarian Rise will debut in parliament after passing the four per cent threshold despite minimal campaigning and Yanev’s rather modest popularity among the general audience. He expressed desire to be part of “any” project reconfiguration of the coalition.
The final results confirmed the drastic drop of support in There’s Such a Nation, which were part of Petkov’s coalition after the elections in November, left it after a series of chaotic decisions and claims, and joined Borissov’s opposition which initiated a successful no-confidence vote.
Borissov’s moves are not just limited but close to impossible
“Although formally there was a winner in the election, all running parties lost in one way or another. GERB is actually losing the ground because there is no way it could form a government without further discrediting its already questionable moral integrity”, writes Svetla Encheva in Toest.bg.
The elections leave Bulgaria again in a stalemate.
There are 240 seats in Bulgaria’s parliament, which means that any coalition would need 121 MPs. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms, often regarded as a natural partner to GERB, could add 36 MP’s to GERB’s 67. The two parties, although usually manifesting a liberal outlook, could link with the Revival as a potential partner, despite the anti-EU profile of Kostadin Kostadinov’s nationalist party. For Borissov, siding with the far right wouldn’t be a precedent – his last cabinet (from 2017-21) featured the now-defunct United Patriots alliance.
However, Borissov ruled that option earlier this week. “The most promising scenario is for a new failed Parliament in the next few weeks”, concludes K Insights.
For Petkov’s We Continue the Change, the formula would require even four parties to muster a majority in the National Assembly. An option would be to half-restore the previous coalition - Democratic Bulgaria, Bulgarian Socialist Party (which although sympathetic to Russia sides with Petkov in anti-GERB rhetoric) and a fourth ally party which is so far not in sight.
“The thing is that if Democratic Bulgaria and We Continue the Change make any amends with GERB, they would stop existing. This is out of the question and both sides know it. The political identity of DB and WCC relies on them being “against Borissov”, writes philosopher and writer Tony Nikolov on Portal Kultura.
A bigger pro-Moscow wing but to little effect
With the Bulgarian Socialist Party, Bulgarian Rise and Revival in parliament, there are now three parties with alignment to Moscow in the legislature.
The three are promoting the Kremlin's narrative in different ways.
BSP, the main leftist force, is the successor of the former Communist party and although officially it supports the EU and condemns the Russian invasion, the party is against any military involvement and aid to Ukraine, or support for refugees, is skeptic to North Macedonia’s EU integration and has repeatedly expressed conservative and nationalist views.
Bulgarian Rise relies on instilling paranoia around the inflation and also sees involvement on Ukraine’s side as a betrayal of Bulgaria’s “national interests”.
Revival is by far the most radical and outspoken, with Russian flags a usual presence in the party’s events. The party gained prominence with their anti-vax and COVID-denialist rhetoric in 2020-2021. On October 5, leader Kostadin Kostadinov, often nicknamed “Kopeykin” (in reference to the Russian currency unit and his alleged Russian sympathies), left a press conference after his demands for critical journalists from independent media outlets to be removed from the event were not met. The politician called the journalists “foreign agents”, serving “the US embassy”.
Despite a shared agenda, the three parties have never made moves to each other’s orbit.
Bulgaria remains in a unique position where it’s still unclear whether the election cycle will lead to the country getting rid of the toxic elements in its system in the long run or will be sent in a further turmoil. What is sure is that while stakes are getting increasingly high, society grows more and more apathetic towards the election process and the political future of the country. Lesser voter turnout means less support to newer and reformist parties and this will only fuel Boyko Borissov’s survival strategy.
