Bulgaria is looking like a place that no one really wants to govern. The country is heading for its fourth elections in eighteen months and chances for a coalition are getting increasingly small. As major players are trying to win the popular vote, smaller parties are hoping for momentum, as polls predict that the next parliament might feature up to seven parties.
Bulgaria is heading, once again, for elections with no clear winner
On October 2 Bulgaria will once again go to general elections which will see recently ousted PM and We Continue the Change leader Kiril Petkov face off the controversial GERB strongman Boyko Borissov.
As Borissov’s decade-long governance came to an end following tense elections and citizen unrest, Petkov and his four-way coalition stepped in power in late 2021 with the promise of quick reforms only to be shown the door seven months later by the growing opposition in the parliament, now led by Borissov.
Both will be eyeing a comeback for their respective voters and both are now at odds with President Rumen Radev, whose most recent interim cabinet is chased by allegations of instilling pro-Moscow politics and reversing Petkov’s reforms. Both have very limited options for a coalition as traditionally nearly 50 per cent of the eligible voters are skipping from casting their ballot and the remaining electorate is heavily fragmented.
Despite the tense moment – in which Bulgaria is dealing with inflation, securing gas resources, giving mixed signals about its geopolitical positions while also battling ecological problems such as floods and wildfires – it’s expected that these elections will be a footnote in history rather than a watershed moment.
According to the one of the most recent surveys, by the Exacta agency published on September 21, seven parties are expected to form Bulgaria’s next parliament: GERB are expected to come first with 26.2 per cent, followed by their rivals We Continue the Change (18.1). Petkov’s former coalition partners from the Bulgarian Socialist Party are expected to come third with 12.5% of the vote, while the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, which is focused on the Turkish diaspora in the country and has been a loyal partner to GERB are expected to get 10.3% of the vote. 9.5% of the respondents said that they will vote for the pro-Moscow far-righters Revival, and 7.5% expressed support for the pro-EU party and allies to Petkov Democratic Bulgaria. Finally, former coalition partners There’s Such a People are credited with a 5.4% vote intention. The new pro-Moscow nationalist party Bulgarian Rise, headed by former President advisor Stefan Yanev will get, according to the poll, 4% of the votes, which is also the threshold for making it to the Parliament, so no one can predict, for the time being, if they would gather enough votes. (For further information on the geopolitical orientation of Bulgaria’s major parties you can revisit our longform analysis from July).
Most surveys indicate a solid win for GERB with a few percent ahead of We Continue the Change - however, GERB has only Movement for Rights and Freedoms as a potential coalition ally, We Continue the Change can rely on Democratic Bulgaria. The Socialists are pro-Russian, while There’s Such a People (that surprisingly left the coalition in June and joined the opposition, a move that led to Petkov’s ousting) showed an erratic behavior, so no one can count on this party. Revival and Bulgarian Rise are in no man’s land.
In interviews, Kiril Petkov has said he’s not concerned about polling results as in November the victory of We Continue the Change came despite most agencies placing the party in second position.
With the ousting of Kiril Petkov’s coalition, the next general elections were often described as a “break it or make it” moment where the country will decide whether it will ally with Moscow or the West, whether it will break from old political dependencies or choose a fresher approach to the future.
By late September, that rhetoric is dying out as it’s becoming increasingly likely that snap elections would have to be called again in 2023.
Borissov strategy is to instill nostalgia for pre-war, pre-inflation times
GERB’s strongman will no doubt go down in history as an odd kind of political survivor. In theory, he can be described as a “disgraced” party leader, in practice little of the allegations against him have hurt his image both locally and internationally.
While the pro-EU/pro-West parties such as We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria are consolidating their electorate in Sofia, Borissov does what he always did in campaigns: playing it close to the common man by visiting smaller towns and villages.
He has targeted We Continue the Change co-leaders Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev as guilty for insufficient response to the inflation and even compared the state of Bulgaria to that of war-ravaged Ukraine.
“We Continue the Change has led us to a real catastrophe [while in government], Bulgaria looks like it has been through a war,” he told potential voters in Blagoevgrad on September 4. “In Ukraine, they have one agressor - Putin, here, we have two - Kiril and Assen”, he said on September 12 while visiting coastal town Pomorie.
Despite troubling the Bulgarian - North Macedonian relations for years to come, mismanaging both Bulgaria’s response to the pandemic and the vaccination rollout, leaving a legacy of associations with oligarchs, criminal structures, and shrinking media freedom, Borissov continues to strive and hold a seemingly centerish, liberal and pro-West profile.
Although Borissov has also been criticized for keeping Bulgaria economically dependent on Russia through not seeking other options for gas delivery during his governance, he’s carving out an anti-Moscow image.
On September 20 he was surprisingly endorsed by the popular Russian opposition figure, critic of war in Ukraine and chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov. During a joint press conference, Kasparov described GERB as being on the “right side of history” and said: “I was made aware that GERB is the only party that has a strong position against the war in Ukraine and the Russian aggression”. His statements quickly drew a wave of criticism on social media. “My advocacy focus in most European politics now is "pro-Ukraine" today, not the past, nor to pretend to be knowledgeable of domestic affairs. And they are openly pro-Ukraine”, tweeted Kasparov on September 20, causing even more critical reactions.
How a song and a documentary film became key factors in Petkov’s campaign
We Continue the Change has essentially repeated many of the points made in 2021 by highlighting the legacy of corruption left by GERB. However, the party’s campaign is also focusing on recent corruption scandals involving other parties.
This week the party produced a documentary film on the lack of actual control on the border point between Bulgaria and Turkey (Kapitan Andreevo): the film reconfirms Petkov’s stance that There’s Such a People was in the coalition to perpetuate corrupt longtime schemes for billions and protecting criminal practices in testing agricultural products near the checkpoint.
Apart from Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev, one of the most recognizable faces of We Continue the Change is local rap star Itzo Hazarta (real name Hristo Petrov), a figure on the music scene since the early 00’s. His new song “MP Hristo” quickly attracted nearly a million views and takes a satiric look to his time as a member of the parliament, while targeting all political rivals and mocking the criticisms to his party by making himself a villain character.
President Radev is short on allies
President Rumen Radev, who has been associated with several pro-Moscow statements through the years and has expressed dissatisfaction to events such as Bulgaria cutting ties with Russia’s Gazprom, is currently short on allies. It is a diminution in the influence of a politician who in recent years has been – despite the fact that the presidency is a rather decorative function – a major force in Bulgarian politics, playing a role in Borissov's removal from power and the making and breaking of subsequent cabinets.
On August 29, There’s Such a People’s leader Slavi Trifonov, who paradoxically has rarely been seen in public over the last two years, made a video statement where he called for a national referendum on transforming Bulgaria into a presidential republic. According to him the “hypocrisy, lies, corruption, behind-the-scenes intrigue and sick thirst for power” has made the current parliamentary system disposable.
Ideologically, Radev is now closer to his main rival Borissov than to Petkov, despite the fact that he introduced the latter to politics in 2021 by drafting him and Vassilev into the interim cabinet. For years Borissov blocked efforts towards energy diversification away from Russia and initiated a dispute over North Macedonia’s EU accession bid – and Radev is skeptical about both the sanctions on Russia and North Macedonia’s EU integration.
Parliament of lone wolfs
The campaign around the fourth parliamentary elections in two years shows that the major Bulgarian parties continue to exist as lone wolves and rarely engage in healthy dialogue with more than one other party. If Petkov’s short-lived coalition was a test whether pro-Moscow left and pro-EU center and right can work together, this test failed and might make parties even less flexible. Along with the expected voter fatigue, this might contribute to the increasing polarization of local politics.
