Six months in, the reformist cabinet of PM Kiril Petkov was taken down by the growing opposition which initiated the first ever successful no-confidence motion in Bulgaria’s history.
Uncertain times ahead
In the first half of 2022, Bulgarians had a feeling that the country was moving forward against all odds. In the second half, a different feeling will dominate: that the clocks are winding back and whatever was left in the past can pop up again. After a tedious logjam in 2021, which resulted in three general elections and two presidential elections, Bulgarians might head to the ballots again in September.
The reformist coalition made of We Continue the Change, co-lead by PM Kiril Petkov and Deputy PM Assen Vassilev, their closest allies Democratic Bulgaria, the Bulgarian Socialist Party, and There’s Such Nation, broke when the latter left on June 8. Following that move, the opposition outnumbered the government and the cabinet was ousted on Wednesday.
The parliamentary “coup d’ètat” risks putting Bulgaria in a new phase of crisis and citizen unrest which comes as the country is trying to overcome inflation, resolve the long-lasting historical disputes with North Macedonia, distance itself from Kremlin’s sphere of influence, and push through laws needed to receive financial aid from the EU Recovery plan.
Although the electorate of We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria is mobilized better than ever, the current developments are slowing down important processes. They are also giving greater power to President Rumen Radev who might select a soft-on-Kremlin interim cabinet until new elections in September when there’s a possibility of three pro-Kremlin parties taking seats (the Bulgarian Socialist Party, Revival and the newly formed Bulgarian Rise, lead interim PM and former President advisor Stefan Yanev).
Essentially, new elections come with the risk of a geopolitical reconfiguration of Bulgaria which in the last six months was clearly pro-Western (despite the coalition featuring the Bulgarian Socialist Party which traditionally plays along Russia’s rhetoric).
This was the first successful no confidence vote in Bulgaria’s history.
How Bulgaria slipped in a political deadlock (again)
There’s Such People departure from the ruling coalition was announced, via video, by its leader Slavi Trifonov, who became known in Bulgaria as an entertainer and a singer and used his fame to get into politics.
“We don’t have any place in this coalition for two reasons: North Macedonia and the fact there’s no money left in this country”, Trifonov claimed. According to him PM Petkov has made a deal with the EU leaders on lifting the EU ascension talk veto on North Macedonia, which Trifonov calls “national treachery”. “The prime minister is leading a political line of his own, different from the one in the coalition agreement,” he added, despite that in his comments has not backed down from the demands that Skopje is not happy about: for the Macedonian language to be defined as having roots in Bulgarian and for a Bulgarian community, allegedly repressed through the decades, to be included in the constitution.
The veto was imposed in 2020 by the previous cabinet of Boyko Borissov’s GERB and the now defunct United Patriots group, and it has been a difficult legacy to handle no matter who is in the cabinet ever since.
According to Trifonov, Petkov is bypassing Foreign Minister Theodora Genchovska, who is part of There’s Such a People and despite her position, has been oddly absent from media appearances or commenting on the situation with Skopje in a direct way.
The hard talks between Skopje and Sofia are also holding Albania hostage to the situation, with Albania leader Edi Rama recently commenting to Politico that if no development on the blockade takes place in June, “we’ll ask to be separated from this couple that is lost in translation.”
The stakes around the “Kapitan Andreevo” gate to the EU
As There’s Such People crossed the floor and became part of the opposition, several members of the government, including the Minister of Sport and Youth, resigned, claiming the party had been “overtaken by the mafia” and leaders Slavi Trifonov and Toshko Yordanov are being tied to criminal circles and are using the issue with North Macedonia as a smokescreen. “This party is a business, not a political project,” Minister of Sport Radostin Vassilev said on June 14, annoucing his exit.
Petkov and Vassilev as well alleged that There’s Such People has been a Trojan horse in the coalition, used to protect financial schemes of state funds going to private companies working around the border check point of “Kapitan Andreevo”. These companies are allegedly involved in a number of illegal activities, including pesticide-treated food being greenlighted for consummation. There are also long-standing rumours and investigations describing this border checkpoint as a key location for drug trafficking.
“We refused to give a budget of 3.9 billion levs (around two billion euro), part of which, 2.5 billion (around 1.7 billion euro), had to go on covering construction costs; 80 per cent of these companies turned out to be illegal. And when we refused to give these funds, There’s Such a People decided that it would be better not to have this government at all. They hoped to greenlight these grand thefts but we did not let this happen,” Petkov told Capital Weekly on June 17.
“Even before 1989, there were irregularities on this border point. To stop this, we need international support as that’s after all a EU border”, said Deputy PM in resignation Assen Vassilev in a video interview with Dnevnik.bg on Thursday.
The opposition is yesterday’s status quo
The ousting of the government was good news to several other parties: GERB, which eyeing a comeback, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, that plans to keep their compromised members in the parliament (including Magnitsky-sanctioned and Pandora Paper-mentioned oligarch Delyan Peevski) and Revival, that will chase for more votes in the next elections and ambitiously claimed Bulgaria will leave the EU and NATO if it comes power.
The opposition comprises ex-PM Boyko Borissov’s GERB, the main political force in the country between 2009-early 2021 with a legacy of various controversies, the mainly ethnic Turkish “Movement for Rights and Freedoms”, also with ties to the oligarchy, former coalition party “There’s Such Nation”, United Democratic Forces, now allied to GERB, and the pro-Kremlin far-right party Revival.
The vote against the coalition was a rare moment when the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, in theory liberal and relying mainly on the Turkish diaspora, voted in sync with a party like nationalist Revival, usually looking critically upon the country’s minorities. The situation also showed GERB, in theory pro-EU but tied to allegations of EU fund mismanagement, getting friendly with the pro-Kremlin Revival.
Bulgaria is headed for a summer of protests
Since the no-confidence motion was initiated, new protests have erupted in Bulgaria.
In contrast to the previous large scale demonstrations - like the anti-establishment protests of 2013-2014, the eco protests of 2018 and the anti-government ones in 2020-2021 - these are pro-government and in support of Kiril Petkov’s cabinet. Members of We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria attended the rallies in Sofia as part of the crowd.
There are also counter protests, initiated by Revival but significantly smaller in size.
On Monday Kiril Petkov will officially step down as a Prime Minister. President Rumen Radev, initially friendly to the coalition but increasingly hostile to Petkov after the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, is expected to first hand a new mandate to Petkov’s We Continue the Change. If new coalition talks are unfruitful and Petkov doesn’t find enough MP’s for a majority, the mandate will go to GERB. If GERB doesn’t motivate the parties which ousted the government for a long-term partnership, new elections in Bulgaria will take place in September.
Despite the situation, Petkov and his fellow We Continue the Change members have appeared assured that they will have enough voter support to again rise to a first power and see the no confidence vote as a strange guarantee for his cabinet’s honesty through their six months in office: “It was an honour for me to lead a government that was taken down by [oligarch and Movement for Rights and Freedoms MP] Peevski, [“There’s Such a People” leader] Trifonov, [former PM Boyko] Borissov and [Russian ambassador] Mitrofanova. This vote is only a small step on own long way ahead. We’ll continue this battle.”
