As Bulgaria is stuck in a political limbo, the pro-Russians are on the rise

As Bulgaria is stuck in a political limbo, the pro-Russians are on the rise
© EPA-EFE/VASSIL DONEV   |   A woman walks past an election poster for Revival party leader Kostadin Kostadinov in Sofia, Bulgaria, 28 September 2022a

Russia’s ambassador to Bulgaria recently expressed support – a diplomatic faux pas – for the Bulgarian far-right, anti-Western and anti-Ukraine Revival party. Revival came third in the April 2 elections, fifth of its kind in the last two years, and if the current political stalemate continues, it stands a good chance to become a major political force at the next snap election.

In Bulgaria, the devil lies in the details

On Monday, President Rumen Radev – on the job since 2016, associated through the years with several pro-Kremlin remarks, and often opposing the parliament through his series of interim cabinets – said he's not in a hurry to invite Boyko Borissov’s GERB/United Democratic Forces alliance to form a new government. The alliance had narrowly won the latest elections against Kiril Petkov’s We Continue the Change (lately in a reformist alliance with 2021-2022 coalition partners Democratic Bulgaria), but neither got even close to getting 50% of the seats in Parliament.

Both Borissov and Petkov have limited options to find a majority. A coalition between the two is highly unlikely, as there’s a mutual animosity and, more importantly, We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria’s relevance lies in reforming Bulgaria from GERB’s legacy (in two different sanction packages, from 2021 and February 10 2023, members of GERB, their allies Movement for Rights and Freedoms as well as the pro-Kremlin parties Bulgarian Socialist Party were sanctioned for corruption under the Magnitsky Act).

The twist is that if no one will be able to find support for a government, a new interim cabinet will be handpicked by the President and new elections might give an extra boost to Bulgaria’s main pro-Kremlin party: Revival (Vazrazhdane).

Revival took 14,16 per cent of the vote on April 2, their best result yet, after building its latest campaign on the promise of a referendum on Bulgaria's forthcoming Euro adoption (coming not earlier than 2024). This has casted Revival as a third power, right after GERB and We Continue the Change.

In comparison, in April 2021, in the first elections of what was about to become a lengthy turmoil, the party gathered 2,45 per cent of the votes, bellow the electoral threshold. At the time, Bulgaria’s far right seemed to be disappearing, especially after the decline of United Patriots, an alliance which was ruling in coalition with GERB in 2017-2021 (Bulgaria’s controversial veto on North Macedonia’s EU ascension over historical disputes is a legacy of that cabinet).

For Revival, Kremlin’s the limit

The country’s longstanding source of Russophile sentiments is the Bulgarian Socialist Party – the direct successor of the Communist party, dissolved in 1990 – but the party has been experiencing internal conflicts and voter draught despite efforts to motivate the electorate (and even get  some votes from Revival’s core base) with a campaign against “gender ideology” and sex education. Bulgarian Rise, founded last year by Stefan Yanev – 2021 interim PM, former President military advisor and 2021-2022 Defence Minister ousted for pro-Kremlin statements – did not reach the 4% threshold this time while the new alliance “The Left-Wing!”, founded by former socialist members, was also far from making a splash in the elections.

This means that all eyes are on Revival, founded in 2014 by 44-year old historian and nationalist Kostadin Kostadinov. The party was a marginal force before successfully riding on the wave of frustration over COVID-19 related measures and the conspiracy theories around the vaccination in 2020-2021. The party has expressed clear anti-West and anti-EU views, painting opposition media as “agents of the USA” and has been firmly against any kind of aid to Ukraine. Russian flags are often present at the party’s rallies.

What’s also remarkable about the party’s performance is that there doesn’t seem to be a visible limit of their growth, despite Kostadinov’s often erratic behaviour and Revival’s internal conflicts.

In April, Revival collected more than 100,000 extra votes (a 40 per cent growth in comparison to the elections in October 2022), and according to the exit polls the party has managed to draft votes from all around the political spectrum, including from the pro-EU We Continue the Change and GERB, which despite its tarnished reputation and the fact that it kept Bulgaria close to Russia during its 2009-2021 tenure in power, has officially displayed also a pro-EU attitude.

Revival’s potential also lies in activating the voters who have given up on local politics – around 31,000 of the party’s votes have come from citizens who have previously skipped on going to the ballots.

The Russian ambassador to Bulgaria openly backs the far-right party

Amid the increased voter support, Revival also got a fresh endorsement.

Russian ambassador Eleonora Mitrofanova, who is rarely making media appearances in Bulgaria and has criticised the pro-West orientation of Petkov’s 2021-2022 cabinet in Russian media, gave her first wide-ranging interview for the YouTube channel of Martin Karbowski, a journalist well-known locally for his provocative and confrontational style of coverage.

By the end of the interview, published on April 20, he asked her who would she support if she was eligible to vote.

“If I’d be a Bulgarian voter who was well aware of local politics, how governing is done and knows what is happening, I’d probably vote for the “I don’t support anybody” option or for Kostadinov. Why would I do that? Of all, let’s call them opposition [to GERB] parties, he at least expresses a pro-Bulgarian position and I like that – he doesn’t speak about Russia, he doesn’t support Russia, he’s only pro-Bulgaria and I relate to that [....] he’s in for a balanced approach to international politics”, Mitrofanova said in the 47-minute long interview, conducted in Russian and subtitled in Bulgarian.

Karbowski noted that by mentioning Kostadinov, Mitrofanova probably didn’t do him a favour as far as neutrality is concerned, to which the ambassador jokingly retorted that the journalist is free to edit out the bit.

In the interview, Mitrofanova kept to to the Kremlin rhetoric regarding the war, referring to it as a “military operation”, while Karbowski called the parties demanding military aid to Ukraine “war lovers”, an expression also used by President Rumen Radev. Karbowski’s questions also included one of the recent narratives in the pro-Russian propaganda: that Bulgarian citizens might be sent to Ukraine to battle against Russia, a disinformation piece that can also be seen in Poland.

There was no major reaction to the interview until April 24, when the Interior Ministry condemned Mitrofanova’s statements and described them as meddling into local politics. This remains a rare, if not a unique, case of an ambassador openly expressing a preference for a local party or undermining the process of voting.

Bulgarian politics seem to be a knot that is almost impossible to untangle: the future of Kiril Petkov’s We Continue the Change and Hristo Ivanov’s Democratic Bulgaria will lie not only on their resilience against Boyko Borissov’s GERB but on whether the opposing parties can stop votes going to Kostadinov’s Revival, which is looking more and more as a force that will trouble the democratic processes in near future rather than a one-hit wonder.

Other news
The Biden – Xi meeting did not settle the bilateral issues, but it did reduce tension

The Biden – Xi meeting did not settle the bilateral issues, but it did reduce tension

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping agreed, among other things, to establish a direct line of contact. It is a step forward in the bilateral relationship, after years of tensions.

The local election in the Republic of Moldova: a victory of the (pro)Russians?

The local election in the Republic of Moldova: a victory of the (pro)Russians?

The results of the local election in the Republic of Moldova point to a decline of pro-European factions, after a campaign marked by Moscow’s interference and disinformation, as well as scandals generated by pro-Russians.

Ukraine: war fatigue grows after counteroffensive fails

Ukraine: war fatigue grows after counteroffensive fails

Ukraine has entered a new phase of war fatigue caused by the prolongation of hostilities. There are growing signals of a crisis among the military personnel, mistrust in the authorities, and society's difficult adjustment to a war that is lasting more than envisaged.

EBOOK> Razboi si propaganda: O cronologie a conflictului ruso-ucrainean

EBOOK>Razboiul lui Putin cu lumea libera: Propaganda, dezinformare, fake news

More
The Bulgarian government is taxing Russian gas amid domestic political tensions
The Bulgarian government is taxing Russian gas amid domestic political tensions

Bulgaria’s government decision to add tax to Russian gas brought tensions with Hungary and Serbia, and yet another clash with pro-Moscow President Rumen Radev.

Poland: PiS plans to hold on to power even under a Donald Tusk-led government
Poland: PiS plans to hold on to power even under a Donald Tusk-led government

After years of conservative rule, most Poles voted for the opposition parties. The conservatives are nonetheless poised to remain influent through the public institutions they control.

The Slovak Elections, the Czech Republic, and Russia
The Slovak Elections, the Czech Republic, and Russia

Elections in Slovakia were closely followed in Prague, as the results may serve as an indicator of the direction in which social moods might evolve in the Czech Republic.

Michael Švec
17 Oct 2023
Russia’s levers in the Republic of Moldova
Russia’s levers in the Republic of Moldova

The war in Ukraine has accelerated the process by means of which the Republic of Moldova has been distancing itself from Russia. After the elimination of economic and energy dependence, Moscow's remaining levers are pro-Russian propaganda and parties.

Is Poland ready for change?
Is Poland ready for change?

Poland’s liberal opposition hopes to break the ruling PiS’ long spell in power at the October 15 elections. The conservatives are betting on harshening their tone towards Ukraine, and the EU.

Viktor Orbán is showing signs of despair
Viktor Orbán is showing signs of despair

Viktor Orbán’s aggressive speech delivered in the Hungarian Parliament is evidence of Hungary’s lack of solutions to an economic crisis amplified by Orbán’s own policy-making, as well as of its growing isolation at EU and NATO levels.