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If you’re tired of hearing “Bulgaria” next to “elections”, that’s understandable: but brace for more of the same, with some new players on the stage.
In the latest development of Bulgaria’s continuous political crisis, which unfolded after the 2020 anti-government protests and a series of inconclusive elections in 2021, President Rumen Radev plays a much larger role. As Veridica noted a year ago, he is here to stay but in 2022 his figure looms even bigger on the political scene, his influence is now stronger and risks bringing Bulgaria further into Moscow’s sphere of influence, mainly through gas dependency. Radev also has the support of the interim government, which is helmed by one of his advisors, Galab Donev.
How Bulgaria is backtracking on its own progress
In May and June, Bulgaria was in turmoil: the cabinet of reformist PM Kiril Petkov, featuring his party We Continue the Change, closest partners Democratic Bulgaria, in-house opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party and There’s Such a People, was ousted following a no-confidence vote, after There’s Such a People left the coalition over unclear and controversial motives.
In the seventh-month life of the coalition, Petkov and his ministers made many hesitant moves and statements, and showed political naivety, considering that the plans for their removal have long been in the making. However, they also made several steps in the right direction: cutting ties with Russia’s gas giant Gazprom and searching for deals with Azerbaijan and the US, which includes the long-time in the making gas interconnector with Greece; increasing pensions; cutting state fund support to companies allegedly tied to criminal schemes; initiating a healthier dialogue with Skopje over lifting Bulgaria’s veto on North Macedonia’s EU ascension talks over historical disputes.
For a memorable farewell, Petkov announced the expulsion of 70 Russian diplomats, along with their families, for espionage and meddling into local politics – a tipping point for President Rumen Radev who is also opposing Skopje’s EU integration and any increase of military help to Ukraine. In the first half of 2022, Bulgaria seemed to reach a point of no return to Moscow.
From the first days of its governance, the interim cabinet made its goal clear: to wipe out everything that was done from late 2021 to mid-2022 by the previous coalition.
Bulgaria’s U-turn: troubling its own gas diversification
On August 1, a new interim government stepped in power.
This is the fourth time Bulgaria is governed by a caretaker team since 1989 and the third since 2021. In charge of the previous two interim cabinets was Stefan Yanev, Radev’s military advisor who in early 2022 distanced from his calm and balanced attitude and started expressing pro-Kremlin positions, resulting in forming his own party (Bulgarian Rise) – a factor in analysing Radev’s choices and the people loyal to him.
This time the President named his social policy advisor as interim PM. Galab Donev is rather unknown to the general public but he has been in the waiting for quite a while. Donev held various roles in the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy through the years, was deputy minister between 2014-2016 and interim minister in 2021. In their first public appearances, Donev and Radev warned that because of the previous coalition’s questionable decisions, a gas crisis is coming and the nation will likely experience a winter of various economical and energy insufficiencies.
Concerns only grew in the first days of August: local media reported that the interim government took steps to block the gas interconnector between Greece and Bulgaria, which was expected to deliver soon the much needed gas supplies from Azerbaijan. Donev has denied that he wanted to block the interconnector, but this development was largerly interpreted as Bulgaria losing its pro-West perspective and essentially returning, in one way or another, to dependency from Gazprom.
“Bulgaria is at a watershed moment. The pattern of feudal dependency, backstage scheming and destructive strategies that cost the country terribly is ready to attack from every angle,” Kiril Petkov commented on August 5.
Former energy Minister Alexander Nikolov warned that “if the connector is not ready on time, Bulgaria will be in a very tough position with its partners in Azerbaijan and Greece, as well in terms of prices of deliveries during the winter. That’s when the ‘great saviour from the northeast’ will come on stage,” Nikolov said to Capital Weekly newspaper on August 11, referencing Russia’s supposed future role.
Protests in Sofia against the interim cabinet soon followed and they are now held weekly, every Wednesday. The new protest movement, initiated by the same pro-West crowd that was endorsed by Radev in 2020 when the target of the discontent were former ruling party GERB and then prime-minister Boyko Borissov, is called #GaZWithMe/#ГАZWithMe (a complex wordplay, which derives from the Russian army’s “Z” symbol, referring to Radev’s alleged dependence on the Kremlin and the 2013-2014 protest wave, often called #DanceWithMe, in turn a reference to the controversial at the time appointments at State Security national agency, abbreviated DANS).
Within days, the interim government also initiated various replacements in municipalities, ministerial and expert positions. On August 16, a new head of the state gas company, Bulgargaz, was appointed - Denitza Zlateva, along with a new board of directors. Zlateva is a former MP and part of the pro-Kremlin Bulgarian Socialist Party.
President’s strategy: to raise them up, only to bring them down
Radev doesn’t only create his partners, as in 2021 he essentially created his own soon-to-be opponents.
“Let’s say the thing that up until a year ago seemed like an unpopular thesis - Mr. Radev has actually always protected the Russian interests in Bulgaria”, wrote in a series of tweets on August 9 Eleonora Belobradova, member of Democratic Bulgaria and former MP, in a rarely direct public comment regarding Radev’s geo-political affiliations.
“In the last two years Radev had a clear goal - to rule through a series of interim governments, with the ambition to deeply destabilize the political landscape. That wouldn’t be such a problem if Radev was a regular player on the scene. His most valuable instrument for influence is that he appears unassuming and under the radar, he doesn’t push himself down people’s throats with his political biases, he doesn’t lead the conversation. He just makes new political projects and then denounces them, with a new tone, only to lend a hand to others. He turned the Presidential position in political power, essentially denouncing the relevancy of the Constitution”, Belobradova claims, referencing the way Radev turned against Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev. They came to the spotlight as members of Radev’s 2021 interim cabinet and they eventually won the November elections with their newfound We Continue the Change party. They also supported Radev’s successful bid for a second term in office.
Belobradova’s prediction that a series of interim government might define the political future of Bulgaria is not an over exaggeration: according to the latest research by polling agency Market Links, from August 11, the vote will be deeply fragmented: Borissov’s GERB might take 22.4 % of the popular vote and Petkov’s We Continue the Change is coming second with 19.1 %. In terms of personal ratings: 66% express support in Boyko Borissov, 61 % approve of Kiril Petkov’s politics, 48 % look upon Rumen Radev.
The interim government will lead Bulgaria until the next general elections, scheduled for October 2.
