How do you build a fresh campaign when you’re bracing for a fifth general election in just two years? This is the challenge parties in Bulgaria face ahead of the April 2 polls in which We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria (natural pro-EU allies but running together for the first time) will come up against their arch enemies from Boyko Borissov’s GERB, the dominant presence in local politics since the late 2000’s and running along with United Democratic Forces.
We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria have shied away from bombastic statements but are keeping their vision that if they win, they’ll try to make the impossible – offer a minority cabinet of their own experts supported out of necessity by the whole parliament, something which didn’t happen when WCT’s coalition was ousted and a new round of coalition talks was kickstarted.
Others have adopted different strategies.
Bulgaria’s queer brand of conservative left: the Socialists are increasingly opposing human rights
“Only the Socialist party can save the children through a cohesive political line and protect them from gender ideology”, Kornelia Ninova, leader of the pro-Kremlin Bulgarian Socialist Party said on Wednesday during a visit in the smalltown of Shumen. The Socialists, who hail from of the Communist party, dissolved after 1989, are often swinging in the severity of their tone but right now they are in conservative mode.
Ninova, often at odds with her own party members, has made a comeback to the 2017-2018 rhetoric around the ratification of the Istanbul Convention, a European treaty intended to curb domestic violence and enhance women's rights, which in some parts of Eastern Europe, including Bulgaria, was interpreted as giving extra rights to LGBTQ+ groups.
The most recent target of BSP has been a series of drag shows hosted in one of the leading LGBTQ+ venues in Sofia – The Steps. The shows have won a grant of 47,500 euros from the Culture state fund which after the 2020 lockdown became the main source of funding for art projects. This put drag culture in Bulgaria under a rare media spotlight.
The BSP was not alone in its anti LGBTQ+ stand: GERB members have well criticised the fact that public funds have been supporting events that they see as morally compromised and a decadent legacy of the “too liberal” governance of Kiril Petkov and We Continue the Change. On Tuesday former Sports Minister Krasen Kralev described the drag culture as “trans striptease in some bar – enough with the Change!”.
It should also be noted that the BSP welcomed the February 21 controversial ruling of the Supreme Court of Cassation in Sofia that transgender people will no longer be eligible to change documents in accordance with their identity.
Referenda Russia would like: anti-LGBTQ+, anti-EURO, pro-Presidential
Meanwhile, as Veridica predicted last year, Bulgaria’s upcoming adoption of the Euro currency became a point of disinformation and this was openly embraced by Revival, the country’s major far-right and pro-Russia party which managed to find a solid voter base in 2021 over their antivax rhetoric.
In the last months, both the Bulgarian Socialist Party and Revival have called for referendums: the BSP wants to initiate a plebiscite against “gender ideology” (despite that no recent change has been made in the way the educational system addresses sex and gender), while Revival, according to their own estimations, have gathered over 350,000 signatures for a referendum against the adoption of the Euro.
While BSP’s ideas have been largely seen as a desperate attempt, the anti-West politics of Revival has worked better for their electorate: the latest polls indicate they have a chance to become a third power in the parliament.
The fading There’s Such a People party, who won the July 2021 elections but failed to get elected to the Parliament at the October 2022 elections, also started promoting the idea for a referendum - to turn Bulgaria into a Presidential republic. This makes the now marginal There’s Such a People the only party which is openly an ally to President Rumen Radev, highlighting the growing divide between the parliament and the Presidency.
The themes of the referenda are all too familiar for those following Russia’s discourse or way of making politics: the so-called “LGBTQ+ agenda” is an obsession of the Russian propaganda (and various Western far-right and ultra-conservative groups), opposing the Euro comes in line with Euro-skepticism, and a strong president is typical to Russia and its most important allies– not to mention that this particular Bulgarian president is largely regarded as being sympathetic towards Russia.
The war in Ukraine and Bulgarian politics
The role of the Russian invasion in Ukraine has created a clear dividing line in local politics – it inspired Revival to go radical, it lead to a severance of the relations between the President and Kiril Petkov, as well as between Petkov and Ninova, in early 2022, and later it influenced the political line of the interim cabinet, which started to revise Petkov’s reforms, treated the parliament’s decision to send military aid to Ukraine as a mistake, and hardened Sofia’s tone to North Macedonia.
However, during the electoral campaign leading to the April 2 elections, the war in Ukraine has been most talked about by the newly established parties – the “The Leftists!”, set up by former Socialist Party members, and “Together” – both parties arguing that support to Ukraine should cease as its continuation would only involve Bulgaria deeper into the conflict.
Meanwhile, since the beginning of the week, a wave of anonymous bomb threats targeting over 20 schools through email messages has stopped educational activities in Sofia, Burgas, Varna, Pleven and Yambol.
On Tuesday and Wednesday the Sofia Prosecution, Interior Minister Ivan Demerdzhiev, and interim PM Galab Donev have confirmed that the threats are in relation to the forthcoming elections and are made to instil fear. “No matter what anyone tells you, it’s not dangerous to vote,” Donev told the media on Wednesday.
A suspected Russian link in the coordination of the threats is currently being investigated. The Russian embassy has denied involvement.
Latest standings: Kiril Petkov’s alliance seems poised to come first, but far from getting a majority in the Parliament
Much like the elections last October, Bulgarians will head to the polling stations this Sunday with tiny hopes that this latest round will untangle the country’s stalemate, which started when GERB leader Boyko Borissov failed to secure a majority in 2021.
What was supposed to be the beginning of a process of political lustration, turned into a lengthy transitional period with several new players on stage. However, most polls predict a slightly higher turnout in comparison to the last time (only 39.41 per cent voted last October) as those who have experienced voter fatigue in previous rounds might cast their choices again.
The cycle that began in 2021 saw the decline of GERB’s Boyko Borissov as state strongman, the rise and fall of “There’s Such a People”, led by popular entertainer Slavi Trifonov, then the breakthrough of Kiril Petkov’s “We Continue the Change“, which assembled an uneasy and internally fractured reformist coalition which survived seven months, and the growing power of President Radev.
Now Bulgaria will likely swing back to the voter tendency at the end of 2021 because it might be Petkov's time again.
Market Links’ survey from March 29 put his “We Continue the Change” / Democratic Bulgaria in the lead with 23.7 per cent, with GERB in second place on 22.3 per cent support. Movement for Rights and Freedoms would cast third with 13.6, Revival - 11.4. Bulgarian Socialist Party, for years traditionally in the second position, is expected to continue its downfall taking only 7.3.
It would be the kind of result from which, given the incompatibility between the parties in the electoral competition, no one will really gain. The April 2 election could prove to be just a rehearsal for a sixth poll.
