Natalia Gavriliță’s Cabinet, supported by the majority made up of Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) MPs, has in the last year constantly navigated a number of unprecedented crises, a record-high inflation of some 32%, but it also grabbed the biggest victory since 1991 - obtaining EU candidate status.
Ayman al-Zawahiri was the ideologue of the Al-Qaida network, whose leadership he took over after the killing of Osama bin Laden. Al-Zawahiri was one of the most prominent terrorist leaders killed in the past two decades, but his death is unlikely to have a significant impact the jihadist movement.
The war in Ukraine brought back into focus an issue that had been known for a long time: Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. First, the possibility of European sanctions was raised, then Moscow reduced supplies, which caused panic in some Western capitals. What can Europeans do to escape Russian blackmail and how much should they fear the coming winter?
Over the past two decades, Moldovan wines have become one of the key elements in the geopolitical war between Chisinau and Moscow, but also a symbol of Moldova's attempt to escape the Russian influence.
The security context and the political will in Chisinau were the main valid arguments used by Romanian diplomacy in supporting the Republic of Moldova on its European path. The Republic of Moldova managed, in less than four months, from March 3rd till June 23rd, to shift from the status of country that officially applied for EU membership to that of candidate country. By comparison, the Western Balkan states received a clear European perspective from Brussels 19 years after the EU Thessaloniki Summit in 2003.
A country of strategic importance but not indispensable, involved in the war effort despite keeping its distance, Romania cannot congratulate itself enough in official discourse for having long foreseen the aggressive plans of Putin’s Russia. As usual, Romanian officials contend themselves with the dangerous illusion that nothing should be changed in their approach to the territory that separates Bucharest from Moscow.
EU and NATO member Bulgaria, once Moscow’s closest satellite, has been moving away for years, albeit at a slow pace, from Russia’s pull. This process has been accelerated following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, the Kremlin can still count on an array of friendly politicians, spies, and a disinformation and propaganda network to further its interests in Sofia.
Every day, Russian citizens learn from news segments about the victories reported by the Russian army on the Ukrainian front. Even when troops are retreating or conquering a few small villages despite sustaining heavy losses, the Ministry of Defense spokesman, Igor Konashenkov, invokes resounding achievements. A PROEKT.MEDIA investigation reveals that many such achievements are in fact mathematical and geographical falsehoods.
The regional context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has inevitably led to a change in NATO's Strategic Concept. Accents have changed, and Russia has turned from a strategic partner of NATO into a “direct threat” to the security of the member states of the Alliance, as well as to some of their neighbors, including the Republic of Moldova.
Georgia was once considered the most reformist and pro-Western country in the former Soviet Union, with the exception of the Baltic republics. However, the last decade was marked by a slowdown in reforms and a rapprochement with Moscow, and the result was that Georgia did not receive the EU candidate status along with the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine.
In theory, Romania is not overly reliant on Russia in economic terms. Trade relations are limited, the number of Russian companies operating on the Romanian market is relatively small, and Romanian imports of oil and gas from Russia are incomparably lower compared to those of other EU countries. Over the years, however, Russian oligarchs, most of whom are connected to the Kremlin, have taken possession of huge chunks of certain sectors of the Romanian economy. Adding to these economic levers are political ones too – there are Romanians who, consciously or not, are playing into Moscow’s hands. It’s a strategy Russia has been applying ever since the 1990s in most ex-communist states.
Last week’s announcement that the Republic of Moldova had received the status of EU candidate country is going to be a game changer for Chisinau, but it will also bring new challenges.
Respected and hated. Saw a lot of flowers, but was also cursed and even blown up. That’s the fate of the Monument of Victory in Riga which is, probably, going to be demolished as a consequence of Russia’s large scale invasion of Ukraine. Hundreds of other Soviet era monuments may soon follow
Turkey is threatening with a new offensive in Syria, invoking the danger of Kurdish terrorism. This danger appears to be low in Mardin, near the Kurdish-Syrian border, which confirms expert analyses according to which the Erdoğan regime is in fact trying to divert attention from the economic crisis it is facing.
Russia owns the most important strategic gas and electricity supply facilities in the Republic of Moldova and uses them skillfully to put not only economic but also political pressure on Chisinau’s key decisions. The scheme devised by Moscow supports the separatist regime in Tiraspol and offers the Kremlin an instrument to pressure Chisinau for the debts accumulated by Transnistria.
The chess rivalry between Russia and Ukraine existed before the invasion of February 2022. It also existed before the first invasion of Russia in February 2014. It existed, one might say, before the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991. But it has never been harsher than this year. The world of chess has once again become, as it was during the Cold War, a battleground for image, influence and power.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought the world closer to a nuclear disaster, as Russian troops occupied Ukrainian nuclear power plants – sometimes by fighting their way in and shooting at the plants – and Russian missiles flew dangerously low above them. Yet, the International Atomic Energy Agency had a rather moderate response to these risks and it continued to work closely with the Russians, much to the dismay of the Ukrainians.
The war in Ukraine has brought to the fore the poor state of the Moldovan army, which remains underequipped after being neglected by the authorities in the last three decades. Yet the commonplace view in Chișinău right now is that the army should at least fend off an aggression coming from Transnistria. Russia and its mouthpieces, on the other hand, continue to absurdly claim that Moldova modernizing its army would be tantamount to breaching its neutrality.
The appointment of the new head of the Intelligence and Security Service of the Republic of Moldova (SIS), Alexandru Musteață, on June 2, is a genuine test for the government in Chișinău, an opportunity to prove its commitment to implement reforms in the field of defense and national security.
In the months that have passed since the start of Russia’s massive attack against Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky has turned out to be a remarkable leader. He didn’t flee, didn’t betray the people who put him in office, said no to illicit dealings and didn’t trade off the sovereignty of his country. The Russians tried to reach him during the first hours of the invasion. Is Moscow afraid of president Zelensky and the ideas he stood up for even before the war broke out?
Igor Dodon is undoubtedly the product of the profiteering political class of the Republic of Moldova. Tutored by the former Communist President Vladimir Voronin and the fugitive oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, Dodon has been described as a prototype of the duality of the Moldovan politician, interested only in making lots of money and capable of any kind of internal or external political betrayal. Detained for corruption and treason, Dodon is now complaining that he is the victim of political persecution.
The war in Ukraine is but the latest conflict at the start of a century that turned out to be rather impetuous, from the Middle East and Africa to the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Far East. It broke out just as mankind breathed a sigh of relief, acting as if the (coronavirus) pandemic was over, while others fear the new pandemic is already here. Will wars and pandemics become the “new normal” for the human race?
Poland is one of the NATO countries with the coldest relations with Russia. Concerned about Moscow's aggressive stance in the region, Warsaw called for a stronger NATO presence on the eastern flank and launched an ambitious program to equip its armed forces. But is Poland able to withstand enough attacks in the event of an attack?
The ruling coalition in Bulgaria has promised to improve the country’s relationship with North Macedonia ever since stepping in power. This has proved to be more difficult than expected as the topic is used to rally nationalist voters.
The Republic of Moldova’s neutrality is one of the favorite topics of Russian and pro-Russian propaganda. It is discussed when it comes to adopting measures that do not suit Moscow, but the reality of the presence of Russian forces in Moldova, which means a violation of its neutrality, is constantly ignored. Other narratives are switched depending on the needs; neutrality, however, has been a constant one.
For more than a month, Serbia has been the target of mass bomb threats. Pro-government tabloids and some high-ranking officials claim that the campaign has behind it the West and is connected to Belgrade’s reluctance to impose sanctions on Russia, while offering no proof for the allegations. However, Russia, or Serbia’s own intelligence services may as well be interested to launch such a campaign.
The war in Ukraine has sparked a great of deal of concern in the Republic of Moldova, where the people have seen just how vulnerable the country is in case of a Russian attack. Neglected for years due to underfunding, incompetence or for the sake of “neutrality”, the army seems underprepared to efficiently defend the country. The West is trying to lend a helping hand and has promised to deliver military equipment.
Putin's invasion of Ukraine is first and foremost a warning to all those who are convinced that the shortcomings of democracy, especially there were it’s still in a process of consolidation, can be combated by a kind of transfer of expertise from authoritarian regimes. With the example of China in mind, but paying close attention to Putin's propaganda, many Romanians, including politicians, were convinced that, despite its “shortcomings”, authoritarianism was effective.
Turkey’s threats to veto Sweden and Finland’s NATO accession were interpreted as an attempt to secure certain concessions from the West in the context of economic difficulties at home. The previous policies of the Erdoğan administration – and of post-Ottoman Turkey in general – suggest that Ankara is actually pushing for more: it wants to impose its own agenda and perception over its allies.
The Baltic states are probably among the NATO countries most exposed to a possible Russian attack and were among the first to express concern about the aggression of the Putin regime. Their NATO membership offers them protection, but experts feel that the Alliance needs to consolidate its position in the region.
Despite measures taken by Moscow to secure a monopoly on information regarding the war in Ukraine, Russian independent journalists continue to cover this topic. Veridica has selected a number of press articles describing what is happening in Ukrainian oblasts under Russian control: how the Russian armed forces are abusing the locals, how men have started disappearing, how the new “military-civilian” administration is installed and who the key figures appointed as leaders of the newly conquered territories are.
The war in Ukraine is affecting the economy of the Republic of Moldova, which is already the poorest country in Europe. Tens of thousands of refugees are currently on Moldovan soil, the markets in Russia and Ukraine are much harder to access, imports from those countries are suffering, and all this is compounded by rising global prices and energy dependence on Russia. However, Chisinau could also benefit from the crisis, by accelerating its accession to the European Union.
