Armenia’s pro-European Civil Contract party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, won the June 7 elections by a large margin. The pro-Russian opposition is challenging the results, aiming to at least stop the Civil Contract from getting a super-majority in Parliament.
The super-majority that would allow Civil Contract to pass constitutional laws and appoint high ranking officials at will
A total of 18 parties and alliances competed for seats in parliament. Only three of them secured enough votes to enter parliament, while it remains unclear whether a fourth party has received the necessary number of votes to pass the electoral threshold. Voter turnout was an impressive 58.97%, compared to 49.4% in 2021, and 48.63% in 2018.
According to preliminary results, and as expected, Civil Contract, led by current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Strong Armenia, led by Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, and the Armenia Alliance, led by the second President of Armenia Robert Kocharyan, each received more than the required threshold (8% for alliances) to secure representation in the newly forming parliament.
Civil Contract received the most votes with 727,160 (49.81%), Strong Armenia received 340,062 (23.29%), and the Armenia Alliance received 145,097 (9.94%) votes.
While it is already clear that these parties and alliances will have seats in parliament, the opposition Prosperous Armenia party is just 0.004% short of the threshold. It received 58,368 votes (3.996%). This may seem like a very small difference, but it could significantly affect the balance of power in the new parliament.
According to the counting methodology outlined in Armenia’s current electoral code, if only the three aforementioned political parties enter parliament, Civil Contract would receive 64 mandates, Strong Armenia would receive 28, and the Armenia Alliance would receive 12.
In this scenario, Civil Contract, the ruling party, would hold three-fifths of the seats in parliament, allowing it to pass constitutional laws, appoint high-level officials, and make other major decisions without support from opposition MPs.
However, if Prosperous Armenia were to gain the additional 0.004% of votes needed to cross the threshold, the composition of parliament would change. In that case, Civil Contract would receive 61 mandates, which would no longer be enough to unilaterally pass constitutional laws or appoint and dismiss high-ranking officials without support from other parties.
Following the preliminary results, several parties stated that they do not accept the outcome, citing alleged errors in the counting process, and submitted requests to the Central Election Commission for a recount. At present, 550 polling stations are undergoing a recount, which could affect the final position of Prosperous Armenia and, consequently, the overall balance of the opposition.
The final results are expected to be announced on Sunday.
It is also notable that a criminal case was initiated on Tuesday against Gagik Tsarukyan, the leader of Prosperous Armenia. The opposition does not consider this a coincidence, but rather a move intended to influence them politically.
Everything for the votes: which methods did political parties use to gain voter support?
On the night of June 8, when only 10% of the votes had been counted, the Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that he had once again won the election. This caused public anger, with many criticizing him for declaring victory too early.
However, after all votes were counted, the party received 49.81% of the vote, which is significantly lower compared to previous elections: 70.42% in 2018 and 53.91% in 2021.
NGOs and media have reported the use of administrative resources by the government, including allegations that state employees were pressured to attend election campaign events under the threat of negative consequences. This is widely described as a practice that has appeared in different forms across various election cycles in Armenia’s post-independence history.
The opposition has also been accused of attempting to mobilize voters through financial incentives, and there are reportedly several recordings in which individuals discuss offering bribes. These claims have not been independently verified.
At the same time, government officials have alleged that the Strong Armenia party brought Armenian citizens from Russia to vote in the elections. However, this has not been confirmed.
Separately, senior officials stated that individuals arriving in Armenia and suspected of being present for electoral purposes could be subjected to a 25-day military training exercise.
“Free and credible elections”
Despite various attempts to influence voters’ decisions before the elections, no major violations were reported on Election Day.
Local and international observation missions also commented on the electoral process and its overall quality. According to the assessment of the Akanates, the voting process was generally peaceful, dynamic, and competitive.
The International Republican Institute (IRI) described the elections as fair and credible, emphasizing the absence of systemic violations. However, the organization also noted that the process took place in a highly polarized environment, amid ongoing debates over security issues and Armenia’s geopolitical orientation, where Russia and related actors were reported to have attempted to influence the electoral atmosphere through economic pressure, warnings, and fear-based messaging.
The first to congratulate Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, even before the counting process had been completed.
This was followed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who stated that the United States stands with Prime Minister Pashinyan and Armenia in their pursuit of peace.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also congratulated Pashinyan, noting that the spirit of the revolution remains alive.
Congratulatory messages were also sent by the presidents of Iran, Ukraine, Moldova, and other countries.
Russia, however, initially remained silent. Later, Maria Zakharova issued a statement on the website of the Russian Foreign Ministry, in which she commented on the conduct of the vote. She said that preliminary results indicated that the Civil Contract party had not secured a monopoly on power and that its support had significantly declined compared to the previous electoral cycle.
