If you have seen the memes or jokes circulated on social media depicting obese Americans tying their hands at sewing machines and have found yourself sympathizing with the Chinese, who seem to be the source of the ridicule (the background music is a clue) this is precisely the crux of the problem: Donald Trump’s tariffs on all imports to the US which have set the whole world on fire in recent weeks have discredited the USA, to the point where China appears to be a friendly geopolitical alternative or, at least, in a situation similar to Europe’s. It is a hard and barely perceptible blow to America’s soft power – a phrase impossible to translate into Romania, the closest equivalent being influence or cultural dominance.
By means of tariffs, which make imports very expensive, Trump wants to restart domestic US production, hence the reference to sewing machines in the online joke. For the time being, Trump’s decision has caused geopolitical chaos and prompted markets to plummet – not just stock markets, but also in the famous US Treasury bills, the haven investors around the world use to weather financial storms. In turn, the US dollar is on the wane after previously being the world's strongest currency. Trump's latest (chronological, but certainly not the last) announcement regarding tariffs, which have reached astronomical levels just a few days ago, refers to a return to the global value of 10%, with the exception of China, which is being levied a colossal 125%.
A simple answer to a complicated problem: Trump's incompetence
Showcased by White House sycophants as a genius strategy, this whole story has dismayed the whole world, from politicians and decision-makers to analysts and the widely literate public, as much as it still exists right now. However, to escape dismay, one doesn’t necessarily have to become a Trump follower. There is an explanation, if not a clear one, a simple one at least. The fact that Trump changed his mind and returned to 10% tariffs for the next 90 days, after originally levying taxes of over 50% to countries as benign as Lesotho, claiming they are “robbing” America, is explained by plain incompetence, more precisely, a lack of understanding of global economic mechanisms. The assumption is based on what has already become a pattern: this is by no means Trump's first “revolutionary” initiative that defies economic and geopolitical reality. “Peace in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office” has turned out to be nothing short of fiction, after Trump triumphantly took over the issue, launching negotiations first bilaterally with Russia, excluding Ukraine altogether, then arbitrated by Saudi Arabia, sidelining the European Union and other geopolitical actors. Then Zelenskyy's abhorrent humiliation at the White House followed. Another instance of Trump's “revolutionary” promises, the one regarding an end to the Hamas-Israel conflict, is also nowhere in sight – or, to say the least, we haven't heard anything about Trump’s fanciful idea of turning Gaza into a real estate paradise and removing the Palestinian population. And take them where?
Tariffs, Ukraine and the pseudo-solution to the Israeli-Palestinian question are not the only geopolitical and economic failures so far. However, Trump's toying with customs duties has a greater self-destructive potential in the short term than his more future-looking decisions (or rather aspirations, because they never materialized) regarding Ukraine and Gaza. Many economic pundits estimate that, regardless of their level at the end of 90 days, the tariffs will trigger an increase in domestic consumer prices in the USA, which will hurt the very interests of Trump's electorate base, to whom Trump promised something completely different. That reckoning is drawing ever closer.
Those who rejoice in the failure of Trump's “reforms” have no reason to do so. Trump will discredit himself, but a discredited president also discredits his country in the long term, just as Klaus Iohannis did with his candidacy for NATO leadership, which went completely sideways. As I’ve pointed our previously, a discredited America will push the rest of the world towards a multipolar, selfish and transactional geopolitics, where the rule of international law and rules apply to a lesser extent than case-by-case negotiations. This isn’t making anyone happy, least of all authoritarian leaders. But this geopolitical shift also comes with opportunities.
The European Union’s place on the new world map: a rational, calculated and moral player
In a world where the most powerful man on the planet changes his mind on a weekly, if not daily, basis with respect to economic decisions that affect the whole world, the European Union is curiously favored by what was previously seen as a sign of weaknesses: bureaucracy and slow decision-making mechanisms. Politico points out that the EU is prone to rational and calculated responses to Trump’s tariff blunders. What does that mean? First of all, the EU developed mechanisms for rationally establishing reciprocal tariffs, accepted by member states, given that Trump’s formula for calculating tariffs (the trade deficit compared to double a country’s imports) has been criticized as idiotic at worst and old-fashioned at best. With its typically bureaucratic irony, the EU tended to impose high taxes especially on products manufactured in Republican states (Florida, Arkansas, Nebraska, etc.). Apart from these silver bullets, the EU also has a fallback plan known as a “trade bazooka”, officially called the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), which consists of delegating response measures to the European Commission in the event a certain state tries to exert economic pressure. The “bazooka” was not designed yesterday, but was elaborated as a tool to respond to attempts to impose import tariffs during Trump's first term in office. If the description seems too vague, let's not forget we are talking about an economically booming area of 450 million consumers (compared to the 350 million Americans), whose evolution is subject to central decision-making, unlike other EU mechanisms, once the procedure is triggered based on a qualified (feasible) majority.
These are all silver bullets loaded into the EU's barrel, whereas the USA, on the other hand, has wasted its ammo by shooting into the air.
How will the European Union be affected?
It has been rightly noted that the 10% tariffs temporarily imposed by Donald Trump marked an increase compared to the previous system. Regardless of the results of negotiations during the announced 90-day period, the European Union has a surplus of exports to the US in terms of products (especially pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, industrial machinery and equipment), although it imports mainly services –professional, scientific and technical products, intellectual property rights and information technology, according to the European Council. Europe stands to lose in terms of the above exports and others, but it can reorient itself towards other markets, something it is already doing. In turn, the USA stands to lose considerably in the field of the aforementioned services. A case in point is the fact that the suicidal trade war launched by Trump affects precisely the USA’s areas of cultural dominance (soft power), from the American film industry to science and online services. With regard to the latter, the EU has another “bazooka” in its arsenal, the Digital Services Act and the Digital Marketing Act. It’s a well-known fact that online and social media giants are “strongarmed” by these regulations, which were not significantly targeting them in particular.
It is unclear whether the USA will use cars made in Detroit, in what has become the “Rust Belt” following the disappearance of domestic production, or cars produced in Germany. You can’t simply take Americans off the street and make them work assembly lines, just as you can’t (purposefully) make them work sewing machines, just like the Internet joke. What is certain is that Europeans will pay more for an iPhone or a certain online subscription, but restricting these goods or services will cost America even more, symbolically.
Admittedly, the European Union still needs the USA a lot, especially due to the conflict in Ukraine and other possible military threats. With hundreds of millions of Euro worth of EU investments at stake, and initiatives like the “Coalition of the Willing”, it is only a matter of time (years, admittedly) until Europe makes up for its military shortcomings. America, however, faces a moral holdback: the loss of cultural supremacy in the long term. The USA will be treated as Europe’s “weapons cache” much like China has been said to treat Putin’s Russia.
With respect to China, if Trump’s followers see in all the twists and turns of the American president a genius strategy for taking this country head on, all it has achieved so far is earn the latter global sympathy, creating a situation pitting America against the rest of the world and China, instead of America and the rest of against China.
The path forward: the “Brussels effect” in international economic relations
These times of profound geopolitical changes are not all good news. In the turbulent and fickle context of tariffs, the European Union has been called “the world’s friendliest superpower” by the famous New York Times. The reasons have to do with the EU’s rational response to Trump’s aggressive inconstancy and adherence to rules, in this specific case those agreed by the World Trade Organization. We’ve been hearing a lot about a so-called “Brussels effect”, by means of which the regulations and policies adopted by the European Union are forcefully imposed, for example, to be adapted in other geopolitical territories. An attitude as open to negotiations and calculated as seen so far will impose this type of effect in international trade relations as well, which means that, in the face of adversity, the European Union will increasingly take up its much-coveted geopolitical role.
