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On July 3, 2024, a hot midweek summer day just at the peak of vacation season was blown up by a breaking news in all Belarusian independent media: 18 of the country’s estimated 1500 political prisoners had been released. The most famous among them were Ryhor Kastusiou (long-time opposition politician), Daria Losik (wife of the famous blogger Ihar Losik, who is also a political prisoner), journalist Dzmitry Lukša, his wife, Palina, and Tamara Astrejka, a mother of four. The July 3 act was followed by several more “waves” of releasing political prisoners, bringing the total number, as of today, to 115 people were freed.
As Belarus is feeling the bite of Western sanctions, it seems that the Lukashenko regime is trying to improve relations with the West by “trading out” some political prisoners. Some in the Belarus opposition feel that the West should make some concessions if that would lead to the release of more prisoners. Others reject such a move, saying that if Lukashenko is releasing prisoners, that means that the pressure on the regime is working.
Exchanging political prisoners for bonuses for Lukashenko
Just after the first political prisoners were released, some politicians and human rights defenders stated that this is Lukashenko’s “sign of a good will” or even “the act of humanism”: he is making the first step to start the negotiation with the West about the normalisation of relations, so it is necessary to give something in return in order to continue the dialogue and try to free more Belarusian political prisoners. For example, Andrey Yahorau, former speaker of the Coordination Council of Belarus, on August 3, 2024, during the Conference of New Belarus in Vilnius stated that “I would recognize the legitimacy, in a certain sense, of what is happening in Belarus. I would welcome the presence of, for example, European ambassadors in Belarus, if this allows for the release of political prisoners en masse and moves the situation in Belarus towards a more favourable one for the activities of civil society”.
Basically this means that it is high time to start negotiations with the Lukashenko regime in order to achieve the release of political prisoners. According to this view, it is necessary to persuade Western politicians to lift sanctions from the Lukashenko regime in exchange for the release of political prisoners. The fact that most sanctions were imposed because of the support of the Minsk dictator for the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the acts of air piracy and staging hybrid attacks on Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, isn’t taken into consideration here.
It is interesting that some representatives of Belarusian democratic forces use the exchange of Kremlin spies to political prisoners in Russia on August 1, 2024 as a success story of the Western politicians and Russian opposition’s lobbying, which should be used as an example by the Belarusian politicians now. For example, Tatsiana Khomich, the sister of Maria Kalesnikava (the member of Viktar Babaryka’s team and subsequently one of the leaders of Coordination Council of Belarus, a political prisoner, sentenced to 11 years in prison) even stated that there was a theoretical possibility to include Belarusians in this exchange: “Even if this exchange is a joint operation of the special services to return valuable agents and their citizens home, the question remains: why were more than ten Russian political prisoners included in it and Belarusians were not included? Belarus, apparently, participated in this complex exchange, given that a German citizen has been held hostage there since October 2023. The parties were the United States, Norway and Poland, which are long-standing partners of the democratic forces of Belarus. They had the opportunity to include Belarusians in the exchange, not to mention Germany. In my opinion, one of the reasons why this did not happen is that the issue of their release was not a priority for Western partners. Communication with the slogans “no trade in political prisoners”, “no negotiations with the regime” and “first release everyone – then negotiations and new elections” did not bring the desired result”.
So the narrative “we need to persuade the West to give something to Lukashneka in order to trade out the release of other political prisoners” got on the agenda of Belarusian political life. Russian opposition politician Ilya Yashin stated that, according to his sources, Lukashenko released political prisoners in exchange for spare parts for Belavia aircraft: “As I was told, he [Lukashenko] is literally exchanging people for parts for planes. He has problems with Belavia, and he needs to repair the planes, but he cannot get the necessary parts because of sanctions. He is literally exchanging living people for parts for planes. But it is clear that he will not exchange Maria Kalesnikava, nor Siarhei Tsikhanouski, nor Viktar Babaryka for any parts. Well, then let Putin put pressure on him. They will sort it out later”. Indeed, aircraft spare parts are subject to the Western sanctions, so the state airways company Belavia experiences big problems with servicing its fleet, mostly consisting of Western aircraft. However, no proof of these words was found and Yashin never named his sources.
The Lukashenko regime is signaling a willingness to work with the West, which means that it is starting to feel the bite of the Western sanctions
It is interesting to note that this rhetoric almost completely coincides with the messages disseminated by the Lukashenko regime propaganda. For example, Jury Vaskrasienski, formerly a member of Viktar Babaryka’s team and now the head of “Round table of democratic forces” – a fake puppet organisation existing for promotion of negotiation between Lukashenko and the West, is promoting this “exchange scheme”. On October 2, 2024, in his discussion with former political prisoner and human rights defender Leanid Sudalenka he said that Lukashenko is waiting for the West to make some concessions to the regime in Minsk after the release of political prisoners: “Such “big prisoners” will be exchanged for “big offers”. For example, opening airspace, lifting sanctions on industrial enterprises. We were waiting for a treat. There are no treats – releases are no longer being considered”.
The most interesting piece of this kind is the article in the main propaganda newspaper of the regime, Sovetskaya Belorussiya, by Lukashenko’s minister of foreign affairs Maksim Ryžankou. In his op-ed, Ryžankou is trying to persuade Lithuanians that their country is suffering because of the sanctions imposed on the Lukashenko regime: “The annual direct losses of the Lithuanian economy from the severance of ties with Belarus are estimated at almost 1 billion dollars. And this is not the limit! The most significant consequences include: a catastrophic blow to the transit industry of Lithuania, the work of the Klaipeda port and Lithuanian Railways, a reduction in Lithuanian exports, a sharp deterioration in the economic situation of enterprises working in cooperation with Belarusian partners in various industries, losses in the tourism business”. However, this should be understood exactly the opposite way: “the Lukashenko regime badly suffers from the absence of access to Lithuanian market and ports, so we want to negotiate that”.
But what is more important, Ryžankou begs for the recognition of the Lukashenko regime and starting negotiation with it: “Minsk has repeatedly conveyed to the Lithuanian side its readiness for consultations with Vilnius on restoring normal good-neighbourly interaction. We are ready to resume contacts through border and special services, industry departments, and foreign ministries. We can begin work with parliamentarians, any authorised Lithuanian delegations. We are ready to develop a roadmap for unblocking cooperation in certain areas, naturally, on the principles of respect for the sovereignty and independence of Belarus and its right to its own path of development in cooperation with partners”.
“Trick or treat” by Lukashenko not possible any more
So, as we see, the Minsk strongman started his very old game of “trick or treat”, which he played successfully in 2010 and 2015: I will take my own citizens hostage in order to exchange them for some bonuses for me in the future. However, the scale of brutality against the 2020 protesters, and the support given for Russia in its war against Ukraine made this game impossible to be repeated this time around.
Pavieł Łatuška, the head of the National Anti-crisis management of Belarus and a member of the United Transitional Cabited of Belarus argues that it is the pressure on the regime (including sanctions and attempts to issue order for Lukashenko’s arrest by International Criminal Court) that makes it release the political prisoners and look for help from outside the country: “Our priority has always been and will always be the freedom, life and health of every political prisoner. At the same time, behind the screen of “pardons,” it is important not to lose sight of the fact that, according to human rights activists, repressions have only increased in recent months, with new political prisoners ending up in the dictator’s prisons… Lukashenko “pardoned” illegally convicted people. But we must not forget that he had no right to imprison them. We must not stop pressuring until all political prisoners are released”.
Speaking about the scale of repression, Łatuška here is quite right. The head of BYSOL foundation Andrej Stryžak reported that the number of people, requiring aid because of political repression inside Belarus, has only increased since the first release of political prisoners in July 2024. According to Belarusian human rights activists, throughout the time when 115 political prisoners were released (from July 3 to September 16, 2024), 142 people were recognised political prisoners. So it is just impossible to say that the repressions in Belarus are decreasing. Vice versa, more and more people are being arrested for political reasons.
For now, Lukashenko’s regime is sticking to what it does best.
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