A neighbor of Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova is directly interested in the way the war in Ukraine is unfolding, for both military and humanitarian reasons.
Leaders in Chișinău have conveyed messages of support to Ukraine, saying Moldova will provide assistance to as many refugees from Ukraine as possible. President Maia Sandu however refrained from naming Russia the aggressor as such in her speech on February 25.
“Yesterday morning we woke up to a very different world, more violent, more uncertain, more unstable. It is certainly a world we had certainly hoped we would never get to see”, Maia Sandu said.
Messages referring to the security developments in Ukraine are conveyed only by president Maia Sandu, According to the Constitution, she is also Moldova’s military commander-in-chief. The Moldovan army comprises some 6,000 troops, including technical staff, and is largely underequipped, most of its military technology dating back to the Soviet era.
Nevertheless, the Moldovan head of state is trying to give assurances that the Republic of Moldova is safe from the prospect of war, at least for the time being.
Fears linked to Transnistria and Găgăuzia
Obviously, the biggest threat facing the Republic of Moldova is coming from the separatist region of Transnistria, and to a small extent from Găgăuzia (ATUG), a territorial and administrative entity in southern Moldova, with a population of approximately 150,000 people, mostly Russian-speaking. Transnistria is de facto inhabited by a little over 300,000 people, while according to official records over 220,000 have Russian citizenship.
Both entities are strongly influenced by Russia at the level of local elites, and to a lesser extent at society level. People here are almost fully connected to the Russian information space, where they are bombarded every day with messages of Russian official propaganda. Both regions represent some of the sore points that Russia can tap into if it needs to destabilize the Republic of Moldova.
On the other hand, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced on the second day of the invasion that it noticed a significant increase in the activity of Russian gunships close to the Transnistrian capital Tiraspol, as well as flying over the city of Vylkove in Izmail Raion in Odessa Oblast.
“We cannot confirm this information”, the spokesperson of the Moldovan Defense Ministry, Ala Diaconu, has told Veridica.ro.
Amidst heavy fighting between Russia and Ukrainian forces, president Maia Sandu on Saturday again urged the population to remain calm and display solidarity, arguing there are no reasons for the Republic of Moldova to get involved in military operations.
Maia Sandu went on to say that the region of Transnistria did not report any developments that might signal military preparations from Tiraspol, and insisted on dismissing rumors according to which Transnistria is getting ready for war.
“Right now, we believe the current circumstances do not require the Republic of Moldova to take military action. One argument in favor is the fact that Ukraine had received very clear warnings from US intelligence about the impending attack. In the case of the Republic of Moldova, there is no such information”, Maia Sandu explained.
Moreover, president Maia Sandu is in permanent contact with leaders of powerful Western countries. On Friday evening, president Sandu had a talk with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who assured the president that the territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova will be protected by American allies. At the same time, on Saturday night, Maia Sandu also talked to Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, about the situation in Ukraine and in the Republic of Moldova, including humanitarian aid efforts. The Moldovan official added that the state’s power structures have been put on high alert and are closely monitoring the situation.
“The main area we are focusing on are the raions left of the Dniester. The Information and Security Service and the Interior Ministry are tracking the situation on the other side, but there have been no significant developments so far. In recent days we have noticed certain changes, but not to the extent that would signal military operations. There is no information so far that would indicate preparations are underway on the other side”, president Maia Sandu also stated.
Tiraspol claims it has no intention of launching a military operation
Although the president made it clear that the Republic of Moldova is a neutral state from a military point of view, this does not rule out with absolute certainty an attack ordered by the regime in Moscow, which in recent days has displayed a high degree of unpredictability, which in turn makes any decision very likely. Maia Sandu has expressed hope that global actors will take this into account and won’t be dragging the Republic of Moldova into a military conflict.
On the other hand, the leader of the separatist republic of Transnistria, Russian militia general Vadim Krasnoselsky, has denied the information that Transnistrian troops are preparing to attack Ukraine. In a post on his Telegram account on Saturday, Krasnoselsky denied information carried by Ukrainian media according to which Transnistria is possibly preparing to attack Ukraine.
“I’m first and foremost addressing the people of Ukraine, particularly the population in Vinnystsia and Odessa oblasts, but also Ukrainians in Transnistria. For the last few days, certain media outlets in Ukraine and various social media have been spreading rumors according to which an attack from Transnistria is coming. These assumptions are false. I take full responsibility in saying that those spreading such fake news have absolutely no control over the situation. Our intentions are peaceful. We have never had any aggressive intentions regarding our neighbors, nor will we ever have”, Krasnoselsky wrote.
Russia currently has some 1,500-2,000 troops stationed in the separatist region of Transnistria, accounting for some 11% of Moldovan territory.
The troops are divided in “peacekeepers”, who were mandated to keep the peace ever since 1992, shortly after the Transnistrian War, and the Operational Group of Russian Forces (OGRF), who is illegally stationed in the Republic of Moldova, claiming it is guarding an old ammo depot located in Cobasna, in northern Transnistria, just a few kilometers away from the Ukrainian border.
Russian peacekeepers and OGRF forces are de facto one and the same military force, which is periodically rotating either to keep the peace or to guard the munition depot in Cobasna. OGRF is de jure reporting to the Western Military District of the Russian Armed Forces headquartered in Saint Petersburg, which means they take their orders directly from the Russian Federation’s army.
In fact, the Ukrainian army on Saturday announced the capture of two Russian military who were part of Russia’s reconnaissance and sabotage troops, who had allegedly entered Ukraine crossing into Odessa from the separatist region of Transnistria.
The current war crisis could also decide the fate of Transnistria. It’s hard to believe that, should it succeed in fending off Russia’s attacks, Ukraine will allow the existence of a pro-Russian separatist republic off its coast. Tiraspol leaders are well aware, and the possibility of military maneuvers in the region remains very high, despite Krasnoselsky’s promises and appeals to calm.
We should not forget that the Kremlin leader, Vladimir Putin himself, claimed until the very last moment that Russia has no intention of attacking Ukraine, whereas on Thursday evening the Russian Federation launched a full-on attack on Ukraine.
