The Russian press is not allowed to call the Russian aggression in Ukraine a “war” and the military action an “invasion”. Official statements avoided acknowledging for days that there were casualties among the Russian military. The Russian public is told that the forces of the separatist republics are the ones that launched operations in the Donbass area. Nothing about the scale of the offensive. But there is also a tiny independent press that is trying to inform its public and has written about the impact that Western sanctions will have on Russia's economy and the standard of living of the population, the difficulties encountered in the field by the Russian army and the fact that Putin could threaten with his nuclear arsenal, a theme that became extremely topical on January 27, when the Russian president ordered the country's strategic forces to go on special alert.
“On the fourth day of the war (yes, Roskomnadzor, this is a war, not a 'special operation'), the situation of the invaders is not very good", Kasparov.ru reads. “The blitzkrieg failed, Kiev did not fall and roll at the conquerors’ feet like a ripe apple. The former comedian, now President Vladimir Zelensky, proved to be a brave man and a true leader, who did not run away and stayed to fight. The Ukrainian army is capable of fighting, and most importantly, the Ukrainian people do not demand capitulation. On the contrary, they have demonstrated real solidarity and defense training… On the fourth day of the war, Putin's regime came to the brink of the worst crisis in Putinist Russia. Even if Russia “wins” this war (takes Kiev, forces Zelensky to give in, installs a puppet government, etc.), there are no positive prospects for Russia, in any future scenario. The victory will be Pyrrhic, especially for Putin personally. Many people, especially the elite, understand that a huge mistake has been made, a display of gross incompetence and arrogance. It is clear to everyone who is responsible for these actions… The short-term consequences may vary, from the fall of the regime to its getting harsher and attempting to impose a brutal dictatorship. The most dangerous scenario now is the nuclear threat as a last and desperate negotiating tool. In the medium and long term - the prospect of a lasting war in Ukraine, which will bring an end to Vladimir Putin's regime. How dramatic this will be, no one could tell at this point.”
“Russia's intervention will have catastrophic consequences for the Russian foreign policy”, military expert Alexandr Golț wrote in the Ejednevnîi Jurnal. “No one will talk to our country. The West will demand an immediate halt to any military action, and will give all possible support to Ukraine. NATO will get stronger on the inside. And the few European states that have not joined the North Atlantic Alliance and have tried to remain neutral, such as Finland and Sweden, will want to join as soon as possible. NATO membership is the only security guarantee against Russia, which lives in the realpolitik world of the 19th century. Of course, the lives of the dear Russian citizens, whose security is taken care of by the chief, will not be easy from now on. Sanctions will inevitably translate into a drastically decreased standard of living. The collapse of the stock market is just the distant sound of an impending catastrophe.” Alexandr Golț warns that it could even get worse: “if something does not go as planned by the chief, he will blame it on the treacherous West and threaten a nuclear war. He has already said that “anyone who will stop us or try to threaten our country, our people, must know that Russia's response will not be delayed and will have consequences that you have never seen before.”
“The angry dictator, with the nuclear bomb at his disposal, can now be stopped by decisive action,” said his political opponent, the world chess champion Garry Kasparov. He has urged the West to call back the ambassadors to Russia so that its isolation is clear; to completely disconnect Russia from the financial markets, including from SWIFT and international creditors. The regime must be bankrupted, the activist says: “All Russian propaganda channels operating worldwide should be completely and unconditionally banned; all representatives of the free world countries that are still cooperating with Putin's regime must be urged to leave his companies. Those who are currently part of Gazprom or Rosneft must be declared accomplices of war criminals, and Russia's actions in Ukraine must be qualified as war crimes. Garry Kasparov believes that all assets worth hundreds of billions of dollars in various parts of the world must be seized immediately. This money must be frozen, even confiscated. At the same time, the process of excluding Russia from the energy market must be speeded up. The West will pay dearly, but this price must be paid for the years it has tolerated Putin’s regime. The angry dictator who owns the nuclear weapon must now be stopped by decisive measures, because any delay will lead to the situation in which the same problems will have to be solved when the Putinist aggression affects the NATO countries”, the former champion concluded.
“The 'noble Russia’ and the' Kiev junta’ puzzle doesn’t fit”, said Victor Shenderovici, a publicist who has recently left the Russian Federation as he was declared a foreign agent in the country. “The names of the dead Russian soldiers and officers and their numbers are not announced. No loss - just their nameless bodies on the snowy fields of Ukraine in international news reports… Strange thing, isn't it? The Kiev bandit and narc-fascist junta, this gathering of bastards, mourns every single fallen soldier. They are identified, their names are made public, the heroes are honored with state honors. Russia's legitimate president, however, is in the bunker ('in peacetime'), and his counterpart ('Nazi', 'bandit' and 'drug addict') is personally leading the defense of his country from the besieged capital. No, this puzzle of the noble Russia and the vile Ukrainian junta doesn’t fit. The final picture is completely different. One in which it is clear that ‘the thief was caught red-handed’. And next to it is the Russian tank on fire and it is certainly not a liberator’s tank.”
“The Iron Curtain is back”. The Insider writes that “Russia has become an outcast because of the war in Ukraine [...] [and] is about to become an outcast of the international community, as was the Stalinist Soviet Union after World War II. The Iron Curtain is dropping, which the younger generation does not remember. During this war, the Kremlin is suffering a catastrophic deterioration of its image. We don't see people happily welcoming the liberators. We see, however, horrifying images that Europe has not seen since World War II. The invasion has produced a huge shock, which will not be soon forgotten. It is also important that part of Russian society is not passive and has spoken out against the attack on Ukraine, which is important as a symbolic gesture, including for the West. It is clear that Russian society is not blindly following Putin.” On the other hand, the author fears that Putin will not back down and the situation will escalate. “Given that Putin has already threatened the world with a nuclear weapon, it is a great danger. The only hope is that it will not be enforced, but no one can guarantee it now.”
“It will be a Venezuela armed with nuclear missiles”, Novaya Gazeta headlines. The manager of the international logistics company Uni International, Mikhail Bobrishev, claims that the transports of goods to and from Russia have decreased dramatically. The carriers change direction on the spot, reorienting the goods that should’ve reached Russia to other countries. “International freight carriers, one after another, cancel orders for Russia and this is just the beginning”, Mikhail says. Our partners say that shipments have fallen not only from the USA, but also from Canada, from South America. Shipments to Ukraine have been temporarily suspended for security reasons. In Russia, however, [they were canceled] because of its actions in Ukraine, and it seems that it will be like this for a long time.”
Drilling equipment, oil and gas equipment, chemicals needed for extraction no longer come to Russia. That is, everything Russia needs to extract oil and gas, the publication writes. Or, for example, the combines that were to reach the port of St. Petersburg were blocked in the United States. It is a narrow-profile technique for harvesting a particular variety of wheat. They are not manufactured in Russia, only in America. All shipments to Russia of electronic and domestic technology are stopped, Bobrishev has also stressed. He believes that China might also stop shipments to Russia because it is closely linked to US banks and may not want to take any risk. And so, after decades of rising oil prices, after eight years of post-Crimea talks on replacing imports, Russia is being threatened by a total shortage in stores and the collapse of the ruble. If this is what those who wanted to “have the USSR back” were looking for, then their dream is closer to coming true than ever. “It will be like Venezuela but with nuclear missiles”, financial expert Andrei Movcean says about Russia's future, Novaya Gazeta also reads.
“If the Russian banks are disconnected from SWIFT, we will have to choose which is more important - the equipment for oil production or the goods for the population”, Novaya Gazeta warns in another article. “What awaits Russian consumers in the event of the most important banks of the Russian Federation being disconnected from SWIFT? Major market insurance issues. Financiers and entrepreneurs will have to choose their priorities when it comes to paying for goods - they will have to decide what is more important - to make transactions for the purchase of technology that is vital to the Russian oil extraction industry or to pay for containers of women's shoes and toys for children. It is obvious that consumer products will be paid last - the authorities have shown on numerous occasions how dissatisfied they are with the Russian citizens’ interest in buying quality products from abroad, paid for by the gains in the precious foreign currency accounts. For a while, the goods from the old reserves will be used, at increased prices, then the “optimization of the assortment” will start, and only the minimum necessary will reach the Russian market”.
