Georgian authorities joyfully embraced recent statements by US President Donald Trump, who in effect accused Ukraine of unleashing a war with Russia. The “Georgian Dream” revived its old narrative about what it’s claiming to be one of its main achievements – “saving the country from war”. After its anti-democratic and anti-Ukrainian blunders compromised its relations with the West, the Georgian Dream hopes to be able to "reset" its relations with the US, now that it is led by Donald Trump.
In the Georgian opposition, however, the situation is viewed less optimistically.
Georgia’s ruling party has been repeating Russian narratives on the war of Ukraine. Would that help ingratiate them with the Trump administration?
During the pre-election period, the ruling “Georgian Dream” party of oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili actively used the topic of the war in Ukraine to instill fear that Georgia may be dragged into the conflict. In September 2024, the party launched a campaign with banners and video clips where Ukrainian cities destroyed by Russian troops were contrasted with the “peaceful life” in Georgia. The posters read: “Choose peace,” “Say no to war.”
Moreover, after the war in Ukraine began, the “Georgian Dream” justified the refusal of sanctions against the Russian Federation also by the necessity to “avoid the Ukrainian scenario.” The party declared that the opposition, supported by the West, seeks to drag Georgia into the war in order to open a second front to change the government. It was then that the “Georgian Dream” first started talking about a certain “Party of Global War.”
Against the background of critical comments about Volodimir Zelenski and Ukraine made by Donald Trump and members of his team, Georgian Dream officials revived the narrative that their “pragmatic” policy toward Moscow helped the country avoid war. The leader of the parliamentary majority, Mamuka Mdinaradze, stated that they repeatedly said: Ukraine could have avoided war.
“And when we talked about it, you reproached us, since you were involved in a war campaign and spared neither your own nor other people’s children for bullets and death. And today you are doing the same”, Mdinaradze added.
One of the most influential figures in Georgian politics, Parliament Vice-Speaker Thea Tsulukiani, on the pro-government TV channel Imedi, declared that the party had long known—but could not speak openly—that the Ukrainian question would be resolved “without taking into account even a shred of the opinion of the Ukrainian authorities, which is tragic for the Ukrainian people”.
“Great states will make decisions, and we – in the process of this reshuffling – must continue our pragmatic and national policy that has brought us to today – a hard, but peaceful path.”
Tsulukiani noted that Trump’s administration is voicing what the leaders of the “Georgian Dream” had been saying since the spring of 2022.
“In reality, Ukraine—a strong state—was ruined by a superficial leader, by profession a clown, to put it plainly. And this is a lamentable situation because the Ukrainian nation did not deserve this, and the same fate awaited us, and even worse – because we do not have such a large resource that great Ukraine once had.”
Another member of the Georgian parliament, Levan Machavariani, shares Trump’s position: “I cannot delve into assessing whether Zelensky is a dictator or not. But of course, I agree with Mr. Trump that Zelensky could have avoided this war. Trump is already openly saying that Ukraine could have avoided it, it was just that Zelensky was instigated and egged on by the so-called ‘big boys.’”
Behind all these statements there’s a hope that the Trump administration will agree to a reset of the US – Georgia relations. They are currently at their lowest, following the Georgian’s dream decisions to reinitiate the law on foreign agents, and then to suspend the country’s accession to the EU. The Biden administration imposed sanctions against a dozen Georgian officials and their families, as well as personally against oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. In addition, Washington announced the termination of its strategic partnership with Tbilisi.
After Donald Trump’s victory in the elections, pro-government propaganda claimed that the new US administration would correct the mistakes of the past, defeat the “Deep State.”
However, so far there are no obvious signs that Washington intends to revise its policy toward Tbilisi. In Donald Trump’s administration, nothing is being said about a possible cancellation of sanctions against Georgian officials or the restoration of a strategic partnership.
Georgian opposition politicians and experts believe that Trump is repeating Kremlin’s narratives
In the Georgian opposition, the US president’s statements, on the contrary, were met with criticism. Irakli Tsulaia, a representative of the “Gakharia for Georgia” party, believes that Trump has begun to conduct Russian policy in the United States.
According to former Foreign Minister Nino Kalandadze, it is possible that the head of the White House is not sufficiently informed or is relying solely on the Russian narrative.
Political scientist Gia Khukhashvili also says that Trump’s statements repeat the propagandist theses of the Kremlin. In the expert’s opinion, if the American leader continues in the same vein, it may lead to his impeachment and transformation into a “lame duck.”
“For some time, watching Trump’s rather odious statements, I got the impression that this was a matter of political tactics that was inherent in him even during his first term: on one hand, he was on the offensive to gain a better negotiating position, and on the other, he began to talk about certain concessions and compromises.
But today’s situation has gone too far. Even the red lines have been crossed. What we heard from Trump is purely Russian rhetoric. Even at the level of numbers, when he spoke about a 4-percent support for Zelensky and declared him a dictator.”
Moreover, according to Khukhashvili, both Trump — who has made a series of extremely ambiguous statements — and the Georgian Dream, which supported these outbursts, may face consequences. In this context, the political scientist drew attention to the authorities’ proposal to reintroduce into the Criminal Code the article on “treason.” Considering the rhetoric of Ivanishvili’s party, the article may backfire against them.
“The Georgian Dream says that Ukraine should not have defended itself, but should have surrendered to Russia and provided everything that Russia demanded. This speaks of the mental deformity of our government. They are internally ready to capitulate to Russia.
Imagine, they talk about treason, and at the same time dream that Trump and Putin would discuss something within the framework of ‘real politics.’ And that implies a division of the world into spheres of influence. Treason is when you act against the interests of your own country. Given that the Georgian Dream currently supports the negotiations between Trump and Putin, it means that Trump and Putin must divide the world into spheres of influence. What do you think, where will Georgia eventually end up?”
Amid the possible initiation of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, Georgian experts note that the negotiation process may also affect Tbilisi. Political scientist Gia Khukhashvili believes: “In Georgia, what happens will be what happens around Ukraine.”
“After all, our fates are in fact inseparable. Russia’s ambitions are the restoration of a transformed, modernized Soviet Union or Russian Empire. And Georgia and Ukraine, in this context, are considered in one package.
Russia is effectively talking with Trump not about Ukraine, but about its spheres of influence – this is realpolitik. Putin thinks that he is doing real politics (although this is an anachronism by the standards of the 21st century) when big countries divided small ones by spheres of influence. And, of course, Ukraine and Georgia, as part of the post-Soviet space, are considered in one package.”
Foreign policy expert Tornike Sharashenidze does not rule out that Trump and Putin might come to certain agreements, according to which the post-Soviet space, including Georgia, would be recognized as a sphere of Moscow’s influence. However, Sharashenidze feels that there’s no reason for the Americans to just abandon Georgia.
“Why would Trump just give up Georgia? What could Putin offer Trump? The Americans here have very strong influence, from which they are not prepared to give up. Georgia is most likely to end up in the same suspended state in which we found ourselves after the 2008 war: we have no security guarantees, we are not members of NATO.”
Russia’s plan to force the US and the EU out of the Southern Caucasus region
In Moscow it is believed that Trump’s statements on Ukraine will work to the advantage of the “Georgian Dream.” The propagandist Alexander Dugin, who has recently often praised the government in Tbilisi, stated that the Georgian people “saved” the country by voting for the current government in the parliamentary elections.
Once again, the Georgian government was praised by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. He stated that it is based on national interests, and once again proposed that Georgia join the “3+3” negotiation format. According to the idea, this platform should unite three South Caucasus countries (Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) and three regional powers (Russia, Turkey, and Iran).
“The fact that ‘3+3’ works in the interests of all participants leaves no doubt. <…> By the way, this evoked envy, not doubts, in the previous US administration, which tried instead to promote a ‘3+1’ format, that is, three Transcaucasian countries and people of former US President Joe Biden, who would have led them,” Lavrov stated.
At the same time, Georgian experts note that the “3+3” format is seen as a means to force Western countries, such as the EU and the USA, out of the South Caucasus. In Tbilisi, where there had consistently been refusals to participate in the platform’s work, joining it was not ruled out for the first time. According to Parliament Vice-Speaker Gia Volsky, at this stage there is nothing that would arouse Georgia’s interest in the platform, but in his view, Georgia’s future position will be determined by “the processes occurring in the world.”
