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Almost a year after Aleksandr Lukashenko announced that Russia has started to ship nuclear weapons to Belarus, it’s unclear whether they are there and who controls them.
The propaganda paradox: after Russia breached the Budapest Memorandum, Belarus claims the West did it, forcing Minsk to acquire nuclear weapons
On May 7, 2024, Aleksandr Lukashenko announced a sudden combat readiness check of the means of delivery of nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus. According to the Ministry of Defence in Minsk, a division of the Iskander operational-tactical missile system and a squadron of Su-25 aircraft were put on alert. It was reported that “the entire range of activities from planning and preparation up to the use of strikes with tactical nuclear weapons” will be checked. The drills were announced just shy of a year since the head of Lukashenko’s defence ministry Viktar Khrenin and his Russian colleague Sergei Shoigu had signed an agreement on the storage of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Paradoxically, the Lukashenko regime justified the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus by claiming that the Budapest Memorandum – which provided security guarantees from Russia, the US and the UK to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine which, in turn, turned over their Soviet era nuclear arsenals to Russia – had been breached. Minsk didn’t blame Russia, despite the fact that Moscow did breach the Memorandum by attacking Ukraine in 2014; for Lukashenko’s regime, the culprit was the West. This was made clear in May 2023 by Viktar Khrenin who said, after signing the agreement on storage of the nukes in Belarus: “In the context of non-compliance with the security guarantees given to the Republic of Belarus in the Budapest Memorandum of December 5, 1994, as well as the incessant bellicose rhetoric, supported by practical actions towards the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation from the countries of the collective West, on behalf of the heads of our states, work was organised to deploy on the territory of the Republic of Belarus of non-strategic nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation. This will be an effective response to the aggressive policies of countries unfriendly to us and, we hope, will force their leadership to think about the inadmissibility of further escalation of the situation in the region”.
Lukashenko’s foreign ministry repeats the same manipulation and mentions the membership of the EU member-states in NATO: “Taking into account that the majority of the EU countries are not only members of the world’s most armed military-political organisation, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but are also disproportionally increasing their military capabilities, the EU condemnation of steps to implement the sovereign right of Belarus to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory in full compliance with international law, allows to state with confidence that our defensive actions are absolutely justified”. According to Lukashenko MFS “the European Union's reference to the Budapest Memorandum does not stand up to any criticism”.
This is a basic trick of propaganda: to blame the opponent of something you are doing yourself – just like Russian propaganda is telling that NATO is responsible for Kremlin’s war against Ukraine or that the Ukrainian government is conducting the policy of discrimination of some categories of people because of the language they speak.
Are there any nukes in Belarus at all?
At the moment the places where these weapons are supposedly stored in Belarus aren't precisely known. The New York Times reported about the construction of a storage facility where tactical nuclear weapons could be deployed. This is a site near Asipovičy – more or less in the middle of the country. However, there is no proof that those weapons are really deployed on the territory of Belarus. At the same time, there is a special storage facility in Russia’s Bryansk region, 75 km from the Belarusian border – where nuclear weapons are currently stored. There is a possibility that the site in Belarus is only an option for the storage of the nukes in case they will eventually be transferred there to be used by the Russian military.
Belarus does have the means to deliver such weapons: Iskanders missile systems and modified Su-25 aircraft. However it looks like the Lukashenko regime still has no nuclear missiles and bombs themselves.
For example, on May 7, 2024 the state propaganda published videos from the “combat readiness check” mentioned above. First of all, this is the check of “the means of delivery of nuclear weapons”. And that’s how one of two of these means, Su-25, was presented during this event.
The point is, that the only bomb attached to the aircraft looks like AgitAB-500-300 – “the agitation bomb” designed in the USSR to deliver propagandist leaflets to the positions of the enemy. The best irony possible – the Lukashenko regime is bombing the enemies (inside and outside the country) with propaganda. All the while, nothing was officially reported even about the model of nuclear ammunition that could be carried by Belarusian Su-25 aircraft.
The second possible mean of delivery of nuclear weapons – Iskander missile system – will be for the first time in history presented at the military parade in Minsk on July 3, when the regime marks the “Independence day”. However, it is impossible to say whether the missiles presented have nuclear warheads or not.
Despite Lukashenko’s claims to the contrary, Russia is the one that controls any nuclear weapon deployed in Belarus
Lukashenko repeatedly said that if the nukes are in Belarus, it is him who will hold control of them and take the decision about their possible use. For instance, when he spoke about the possibility of Russian nuclear weapons being deployed in Belarus, on March 31, 2023, Lukashenko said that “everything will be according to the law and according to the rules. There are no and cannot be any uncontrolled weapons in Belarus. Therefore, we will control everything deployed in Belarus”. Since then, the regime's propaganda has been only repeating this message in different forms.
On June 13, 2023, Lukashenko told one of the most infamous Russian propagandists Olga Skabeeva: “I often hear: <<Oh, he won’t use these Russian weapons without Russia.>> Listen, if a war starts, am I going to look around?! Not really. I’d call Putin wherever he is. Or if he calls, no matter at what moment, I’d pick up the phone. Even now. Therefore, what is the problem of coordinating some kind of strike? It's not a question! There’s not even anything to argue about here. Here we have already agreed. Let our enemies tremble!”
That’s how the Minsk dictator wants the situation to look like: he and Putin are collectively taking the decisions on the usage of the nuclear weapons. Lukashenko thinks that this will increase his political clout in the eyes of the Western politicians and will give him the possibilities to manoeuvre on the international arena. In his mind the West will be eager to negotiate with him if it feels threatened by this nuclear power.
But the Russian officials are presenting a different view on the situation. The heads of both Russian foreign and defence ministries underlined that all the weapons deployed in Belarus will be fully controlled by Russia. Sergei Lavrov then said that “neither Minsk nor Moscow in any way violates any international obligations, including those under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. We (Russia) maintain control over the weapons that will be placed on our ally’s territory”.
It is important to note that while the Lukashenko regime propaganda insists on Minsk’s control over the nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus, the official documents signed by the dictator himself state completely the opposite. Thus, the military doctrine of the Lukashenko regime calls nuclear weapons “an important component of the preventive deterrence of potential adversaries from unleashing armed aggression”. At the same time, it says nothing about the procedure and conditions for the use of the nukes, which are called “nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation”. So, there are not even hints that Belarus can somehow control nuclear warheads or at least influence their use.
This is telling us that while Lukashenko wants to pretend he’s an owner of nukes in Belarus and can use them according to his will, he isn’t ready to take responsibility for the possible usage of this kind of weapons by Russia. However, it is already obvious that Lukashenko has no control over the national security of Belarus and isn’t taking any significant decisions in this sphere, let alone the nuclear weapons.
