While uncertain peace talks regarding Ukraine make headlines on news websites and are given full coverage in TV newscasts around the world, Israel is preparing to enter Gaza City and has approved the construction of 3,400 new settler homes in the West Bank, a territory reserved for the Palestinian state under the 1947 UN partition agreement. France, Britain, Australia, Canada and Malta are on the verge of recognizing Palestine as a state (France has already firmly announced that it will do so), at a time when Israel has come to officially reject the so-called “two-state solution”, claiming it is not a solution at all, but a “dangerous idea”.
The Alaska sham summit and the Israeli attack on Gaza City
Why should all of this be considered any less newsworthy than ongoing talks about Ukraine? Because, reporting-wise, right now, “nothing” is happening in Gaza, or at least “less” compared to the conflict in Ukraine. Rather, things “are said” that are strikingly similar to others said in the past. The face-to-face meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska is a more palpable, more graphic fact than Britain's intentions to recognize the Palestinian state. After all, there were times when the conflict in Gaza “overshadowed” the Ukrainian conflict in the deadly competition for staying at the top of the news agenda. Now, however, we’ve reached the point where what appears to be happening is not really happening and the other way round. The Israel-Hamas war is drawing to a close, while the Trump-Putin red carpet “photo op” of August 15 has left commentators scratching their heads over its meaning and consequences, given the triumphant yet vague statements of the two presidents, and has prompted all the major European leaders to accompany Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Washington. Perhaps the Alaska “summit” should simply be considered 95% a sham, given the lack of consequences or progress in the peace process.
In Gaza, however, things are different. On August 22, the UN, through the Food and Agriculture Organization, UNICEF, the United Nations World Food Program, and the World Health Organization, officially confirmed the famine in Gaza. Israel has already begun the first stages of its assault on Gaza City, calling to arms up 60,000 reservists. At the same time, ultra-Orthodox Jews, previously exempt from military service, are now being drafted. Gaza City is virtually Hamas’ last standing bastion, which Israel would agree to spare only if the hostages taken in the horrific attack on September 7, 2023, are all released (20 are believed to still be alive). Israel already controls about 86% of Gaza's territory, and 90% of the population of this region has already been “displaced” – the equivalent of refugees in the same country. Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire proposal put forward by Qatari and Saudi peace brokers, but Israel has snubbed this announcement, just as it has others in the past.
The foreseeable end to the Gaza conflict
Admittedly, a new Israeli attack or tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians is “old news” in a theater of operations that has been raging for almost two years. But unlike Ukraine, where developments suggest a conclusion at most, one that will be long in the making too, in Gaza things look clearer. Israel will emerge victorious, perhaps even by year-end, gaining full control over the humanitarian catastrophe it created in response to the 2023 terrorist attack. From the point of view of Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters, this is the only way to manage the Hamas problem, at a human cost that has already exceeded 60,000 deaths on the Palestinian side. From the point of view of the international community, this is not the case at all – as shown by the intentions to recognize Palestine, the warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for Benjamin Netanyahu, and the allegations of genocide lodged against Israel by prominent humanitarian organizations such as Amnesty International.
Most likely, after claiming total victory, Israel will take the necessary steps to improve the situation for the people of Gaza, after blocking humanitarian aid during the armed conflict. A draconian Israeli administration and strict control of alleged Hamas militants will follow. This is what the pessimistic, but highly probable outcome of the conflict looks like.
Gaza and its geopolitical stake
Gaza and Ukraine differ not only in terms of the likelihood of an end to both conflicts, but also in terms of international geopolitical reactions. Donald Trump's support for Benjamin Netanyahu is well-known and went as far as calling on the former to "pardon" the latter, who was tried for corruption in 2020. However, Europe has a very different attitude, as can be seen from the reactions already mentioned. In addition, Emmanuel Macron did not hesitate to describe as "abject" Netanyahu's accusation that anti-Semitism has surged in France.
In other words, Europe has a clear and consistent attitude towards the Palestinian issue. And, above all, very different from that of the USA, to the extent that it boils down to president Trump's policymaking, beyond the domestic clashes in America. The presence of European leaders in Washington in support of Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the Ukrainian issue was also clear and consistent, but in this regard, Trump's position is no different from Europe's – rather the US president came across “merely” as inconsistent and whimsical. Despite the trans-Atlantic rift recently created, Europe and the USA are still bound by shared interests regarding Russia, which make them prone to a certain degree of political collaboration. Regarding Gaza, however, the position of European leaders is at odds with Trump’s.
One way or another, Europe's geopolitical “wake-up call” can no longer be ignored. Things look very different than in the first days after September 7, 2023, when Ursula von der Leyen and Roberta Metsola attempted a "photo-op" of support and compassion for Israel in Tel Aviv, in bulletproof vests, only to be later ridiculed for their decision, including by Josep Borrell, the European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy at the time. The tragedy in Gaza would therefore also bring some good news regarding Europe: it can only be “more pro-Palestinian” or “less pro-Israeli”, as an adherent to the old world order, based on the morality of international relations, rules-based law and humanitarian standards.
It is curious to note how, just as it happened many times in the past, the Middle East is becoming a kind of geopolitical litmus test, capable of triggering a far-reaching world reset, all as a result of the savagery of an extremist group that cannot claim to be a first-hand geopolitical player, Hamas. The question is how far this reset will go and whether it will eventually create a more threatening situation for Europe. For now, it’s hard to say. But then again, what is actually reported in the news (the red carpet) is not really happening, and what is not happening (the release of the hostages in Gaza) is far more consequential.
