Estonia is debating whether to send back fighting-age Ukrainian refugees

Estonia consistently supports Ukraine, but its own financial capabilities are quite limited, and the resources allocated to refugees are gradually decreasing. The program for providing free psychological assistance to refugees, for instance, is being scaled back, and education in the Ukrainian language is also being reduced: there are fewer classes specifically for Ukrainian children, and the education system encourages their transition to instruction in Estonian. It is assumed that three years is a sufficient period for adaptation. Many Ukrainians plan to stay in the European Union, and for many of them, there is simply no place to return to—except perhaps in the Ukrainian army.

In early June, the Estonian government supported the European Commission's proposal to extend temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees until March 2026. In addition, a significant number of Ukrainians who arrived in Estonia before the full-scale war are also residing in the country. Among them are Ukrainian men of conscription age who have permanent jobs, have brought their families here long ago, and have purchased homes on credit.

At the same time, Ukraine is in urgent need of soldiers and is looking for them abroad as well, among its many fighting age citizens that fled the country. Ukraine suspended this year consular services for its male citizens age 18 to 60 living abroad, and president Zelensky himself has been preassuring allies to help repatriate Ukrainian men.

The combination of these factors gave rise to a debate whether Estonia should send fighting-age Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine.

"No intention of forcibly sending Ukrainian men to the front"

In December last year, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced its intention to draft men living abroad into the army. At the same time, Estonian Minister of the Interior Lauri Läänemets stated that "if Ukraine needs it, Estonia can locate and hand over this person". Since Estonia practices the extradition of foreign citizens only in cases of criminal prosecution, the minister's statement caused a sharp reaction. Läänemets quickly softened his words, stating on social media: "As the Minister of the Interior, or as the Estonian state, we certainly have no intention of forcibly sending Ukrainian men of conscription age living here to the front".

The topic became relevant again after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Estonia at the beginning of the year, during which he made critical remarks about his fellow citizens not being on the front lines. However, at the end of April, Anneli Viks, an adviser to the Ministry of the Interior's Citizenship and Migration Policy Department, reaffirmed the previous position of the local authorities, stating that the Ministry of the Interior has no plans for the forced repatriation of Ukrainian citizens legally residing in Estonia who fled the war, including those who are potential targets for Ukrainian mobilization.

But since the end of April, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stopped issuing documents to potential conscripts at its overseas consulates. In mid-May, a new law on mobilization came into effect in Ukraine, according to which men of military age from 18 to 60 years old must update their personal data, including place of residence and contact information, within two months, without waiting for a summons. Those abroad must do this through the online conscript portal, by email, or by phone.

Meanwhile, representatives of some European countries have indicated that they are ready to hand over Ukrainian conscripts at Ukraine's request—this is the stance taken by the Polish authorities, for example. In April, Minister of Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (Polish People's Party) stated: "I think many of our compatriots were and are surprised when they see young Ukrainian men in cafes and hear about how much it costs us to help Ukraine".

"We are actively monitoring the situation"

These sentiments are not foreign to Estonia either. In early August, Estonian media reported that the Police and Border Guard Board began asking Ukrainian men for their military ID when extending their residence permits. Given that the shortage of soldiers on the front lines has long been a critical issue for Ukraine and obtaining this document outside of Ukraine is quite challenging, speculation that Estonia might begin extraditing Ukrainian draft dodgers has been circulating for some time, causing concern among Ukrainians living in Estonia who are approaching the deadline for renewing their documents.

At the same time, many of them were still unaware of the growing issue. "I haven't heard this information even from my acquaintances. As far as I know, even if someone doesn't have a military ID, they won't be expelled from the country. This rule doesn't apply during the war. But maybe there's something I don't know," admits Yuriy, a Ukrainian who has been living in Estonia with his family for several years.

"We are actively monitoring and assessing the security situation, and in response to the changes brought on by the war, some adjustments have been made to the application review process", confirmed Marina Kadak, a commissioner from the Identity and Status Bureau of the Police and Border Guard Board, in a statement to Veridica.

She explained that, according to the Aliens Act, a military ID can be requested from citizens of any third country. "It's understandable that Ukrainian citizens, whose homeland is at war, are more concerned about residence permit requirements. If someone doesn't have a military ID for a valid and reasonable reason, the Police and Border Guard Board takes this into account when making a decision on the residence permit application", Kadak said.

According to Kadak, the requirement to provide information about whether a foreigner is currently or has previously served in the armed forces of a foreign country, and whether they have participated in military operations outside Estonia, has always been stipulated in the Aliens Act. Currently, a document confirming military service is requested and continues to be requested from applicants for temporary residence permits from Ukraine, the Russian Federation, Belarus, and other third countries. "It doesn't matter which documents a person provides for this purpose, but one way to verify it is through a military ID. This requirement applies to both those applying for an initial temporary residence permit and those seeking to extend their previous permit," she explained.

According to statistics from the Police and Border Guard Board, in the first seven months of this year, Ukrainian citizens submitted 1,430 applications for temporary residence permits, of which 1,276 were approved. The refusals, according to the department's representative, were due to various reasons, not just the lack of a military ID. It should be noted that the second largest group applying for temporary Estonian residence permits continues to be citizens of the Russian Federation, 76% of whose applications were also approved.

For Russian propagandists, the tightening of Estonian rules has provided an opportunity to mock. The topic was mentioned on the "Sputnik" channel, from where it spread to other websites and social media platforms. "Who will stand up now for the young and strong men that the Kyiv authorities see solely as cannon fodder? It seems that this clever scheme was devised in Kyiv, and the Estonian authorities are eager to help", wrote Alexey Stefanov, a special correspondent for the "Russia Today" media group, on his Telegram channel.

"Undermining Morale"

The conservative segment of Estonian society seems ready to endorse the words of the Polish defense minister and would welcome stricter measures. For instance, politicians Jaak Valge and Silver Kuusik from the recently formed ERK party ("Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives"), which split from the far-right EKRE, expressed a joint opinion published on the Estonian Public Broadcasting portal: "The fact that Estonia provides temporary and international protection to Ukrainian citizens eligible for mobilization, even though they should be in Ukraine, undermines the morale of Ukrainian fighters."

Given that members of their former party, EKRE, expressed similar views about immigrants long before the full-scale war began, the "morale" of Ukrainians seems to be a real concern for Estonian conservatives only to a limited extent. From the perspective of conservative politicians, the concentration of Ukrainian men of conscription age in the country is a problem because it poses a risk of a "demographic catastrophe that inevitably awaits the country if the majority of refugees do not return".

"Do we really want to help Ukraine? If so, why do we do one thing with one hand and another with the other?" ask Valge and Kuusik. However, as long as this position is not shared by representatives of Estonia's ruling liberal and socialist parties, there is hope that no radical steps will be taken against Ukrainian men residing in the country.