The tension between Russia and NATO put forward the question on how Bulgaria’s army can be reformed after decades of neglect and whether the country is the alliance’s “weak link”. PM Kiril Petkov looks like he’s on a solitary mission to prove this is not the case.
Kremlin’s politics and the unfolding invasion of Ukraine has put Bulgaria’s role in NATO on a different focus as of recent: while international response in condemning Vladimir Putin’s moves has been somewhat unified in the EU, Bulgaria’s government took a while before aligning its position.
First, by the end of December, Defence Minister Stefan Yanev controversially downplayed the need of additional NATO troops in Bulgaria and Romania: “This might lead to unnecessarily escalating tensions.” On February 24, as reports about missile strikes to Ukraine increased and Kiyv went into an emergency state, Yanev again raised eyebrows, commenting that the media is using the word “war” too freely. “Let’s not rush to put a tag on it.” While Yanev appeared calm about the situation, the Foreign Ministry started evacuating Bulgarians from Ukraine.
The lack of communication inside the government also showed on February 22: three of the four parties in the ruling coalition made a joint statement condemning the decision of Russian President Vladimir Putin to recognize the self-proclaimed independent regions in Eastern Ukraine. "Bulgaria unreservedly supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders. We are concerned about President Putin's statements in his speech, which call into question the very existence of Ukraine as an independent state." However, the fourth party in the coalition, Bulgarian Socialist Party, who has engaged with pro-Kremlin rhetoric through the years, decided not to sign the declaration. On the next day, BSP stated that the time for solving the conflict through diplomatic means has not ended.
Early on, current PM and co-leader of winning party We Continue the Change Kiril Petkov was quick to point out that Bulgaria fully supports NATO and, as a member, is a “predictable” ally, ready to contribute if needed. This was echoed by President Rumen Radev, who although has previously criticized EU sanctions on Russia and has described the annexed Crimea peninsula as a Russian territory, is so far keeping in line with the EU rhetoric about the border tension.
The winning party’s enthusiasm was met with hostility by the Russian ambassador to Bulgaria, Eleonora Mitrofanova. “If Bulgaria places military bases and strategic weapons, then you would become a target. But none of this has happened - you’re not a target as long as your government doesn’t make sharp responses”, Mitrofanova said during a rare TV interview on February 1.
What happens outside of Bulgaria, stays there
Since December, Petkov’s We Continue the Change is in a wide ruling coalition with pro-EU Democratic Bulgaria, previous election winners There’s Such People, often chaotic in their positions, and the pro-Kremlin Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). If this makes for a tense partnership, the Ukraine crisis showed the cracks ever clearer. In interviews, members of BSP have dismissed the possibility of a full-fledged war and also questioned whether increased troops can contribute to international security. “Our wide and colorful coalition manages to find a moderate position to the situation”, said on February 1 BSP member Kristiyan Vigenin in a TV interview.
However, this self-congratulatory moderate position has been one of silence.
Apart from generic statements through January and most of February, the current political establishment of Bulgaria has rarely made outright critical statements to Moscow’s moves. Discussions between the government and the President on national security strategies have ended without major decisions.
This also dictates how the topic of Putin invading Ukraine has been covered, and rather downplayed, in local news. Before the attacks on February 24, other issues have preoccupied the local media space as much, if not more than the crisis in Ukraine: Sofia’s improving but still arguable politics towards Skopje and the lifting the veto on North Macedonia’s EU ascension talks; the possible removal of controversial Chief Prosecutor Ivan Geshev, tied to the legacy of the 2017-2021 cabinet; the so-called “Barcelonagate” which alleges that former PM Boyko Borissov is involved in a money-laundering scheme in Spain; the inflation of bills and goods.
Institutions have also adopted the sluggish pace. The news that Spain sent four warplanes and 130 troops to Bulgaria in early February for air policing tasks first appeared in international news and was followed by official confirmation much later. "Official statements about this should have come from the Ministry of Defense, and I find it strange that’s not the case", said in a radio interview former Defence Minister Todor Tagarev. "Russia is pursuing an aggressive policy in the Black Sea region and seems ready to use all means to achieve its neo-imperial goals in this region. Russia is fully armed while we’re doing nothing because we want to have their tourists and gas pipelines.”
The promise of military makeover is becoming a catchphrase
The knife-edge tension between Russia and NATO has also put forward the question whether Bulgaria’s army can contribute to the frontlines. Although authorities have stated that such a move is so far not expected, the topic of sending troops or increasing the capacities of the Bulgarian army, brought light to the minimal conditions in which the military personnel operate, is becoming more urgent every day. The fact that conditions are poor for decades has been acknowledged by the coalition.
The Ministry of Defence has confirmed that a battalion will be formed although many details - from the exact number of it to whether foreign troops will be part of it - are unknown at this stage.
“This battalion will be under Bulgarian command and will be coordinated fully with NATO. At the same time, we fully realize that we don’t have all the capabilities required for a truly effective battalion so all the deficits we have, both in terms of equipment and troops, we’re inviting our partners from NATO to join and have a really effective battle group on the ground“, said PM Kiril Petkov during a February 11 appearance on BBC’s Hard Talk on which he also downplayed any difference he and the President might have in their critical stances to Kremlin. He also dismissed Bulgaria being a “weak link” in NATO’s response.
“Our investment in defence has been very sporadic. There has not been a systematic approach in investment in security. So we’re trying to use the crisis as an opportunity.”
The President also called for a new approach in renovating the military. “We must drop this attitude once and for all - we’re only thinking about the state of our army from one crisis to another, from one catastrophe to another”, said Radev on February 15 during a briefing. “The pace of modernization of the army does not meet present requirements.”
On February 16, the government invested nearly 97 million euro in armored and off-road vehicles and radio communication equipment. Veridica’s questions to the Ministry of Defence over further investments have not been answered.
Where the society stands in all of this
It’s testing times for Bulgaria, a close ally to Moscow during the Communist regime and a NATO member since 2004. Pro-Moscow and pro-EU positions have clashed over the decades and amid the conflict, this divide continues to polarize.
Former Prime Minister Ivan Kostov, in office between 1997-2001, criticized pro-Russian sentiments among society during a radio interview on February 21: "To whom does the noble man sympathize - David or Goliath? Where will the Bulgarian society stand? The Bulgarian society stands on the side of Goliath and this is shameful.”
According to a new poll by Alpha Research, made available on February 17, 40 per cent approve of Bulgaria's presence in the NATO and NATO politics in general, 34 per cent are hostile to them, the others are undecided. Petkov’s full support to NATO might be at odds with his voter base - only 37 per cent of those who voted for We Continue the Change in November fully approve the alliance. At the same time, 62 per cent of Democratic Bulgaria’s voters, a party similar to We Continue the Change in profile, are positive to NATO. This might be explained by We Continue the Change’s much wider reach and their sudden rise to the top after two inconclusive elections in 2021, meaning they have voters from different specters.
While trust in NATO is arguable, Bulgarians are much more open to the EU: 58 per cent approve the country’s membership, only 13 per cent have a negative opinion of it.
In moments when unified reactions are needed, Bulgaria’s new political establishment shows that it’s still searching for solid common ground. The forthcoming weeks will be an interesting phase for Kiril Petkov - it remains to be seen whether he will tune to the hesitant reactions of his peers (and voters), or whether he holds the potential to lead the chorus.
