
Right under EU’s watch and after years of potential reforms, Bulgaria builds an even stronger façade democracy through the current caretaker cabinet, headed by former GERB member Dimitar Glavchev and serving party leader Boyko Borissov’s ambitions. The current situation means that Bulgaria is staying on a pro-West course on the surface but below, a deep state is getting increasingly stronger.
The unexpected dissolvement of Bulgaria’s coalition - an uneasy but initially determined union of two opposing blocks - GRB/UDF and We Continue the Change / Democratic Bulgaria - rewinds Bulgaria back to old frictions. GERB again appears semi-isolated in the parliament while the pro-West opposition can’t grow strong or big enough to govern without a Mephistophelian deal with GERB; the same would be valid for pro-Russia opposition, one that is usually even more fragmented.
The new chapter of the country’s stalemate is good news for the local political status quo and Russia’s interests, and in the long run, might lead to a democratic backsliding without much international attention or reaction. Bulgaria is currently led by an interim cabinet, one that instead of being an independent mediator, is closer to GERB’s ambitions to remain the leading force in local politics.
The power struggle recap
By 2024, politics in Bulgaria should have looked different. Instead, the country has sleepwalked into an unprecedented crisis where power feels even more centred around GERB and Boyko Borissov who were treated as diminishing influence in the beginning of the decade.
In 2020-2021 the country was gripped in anti-establishment protests against the prolonged governance of GERB and the influence of their parliament allies from Movement for Rights and Freedoms (members of both parties suffered from sanctions in accordance to the Global Magnitsky Act in 2021 and 2022), all while the country’s healthcare struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic. The election spiral which started in 2021 was meant to be a cleansing process which would gradually send GERB strongman and former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov into oblivion or bend the party to initiate an internal reform.
Protests and corruption allegations rocked Borissov’s third cabinet (2017-2021) and the succession of inconclusive elections produced new actors. Nationalists There’s Such a People topped the protest vote in July 2021 but faded over erratic decisions, internal frictions and unclear leanings.
By the end of the same year, a new white hope appeared on stage: the pro-West reformists We Continue the Change party who naturally allied with Democratic Bulgaria. In the meantime President Radev tried to control the affairs through his interim cabinets, fine tuned to Moscow’s reading of events, increasingly creating tension between the Presidency and the parliament (the core members of We Continue the Change were part of the first Radev interim cabinet but after the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war with Ukraine, these sides grew diametrically opposed).
Bulgaria’s paralysed politics proved a deadly trap for the reformists and a fertile soil for GERB’s comeback: the cabinet of We Continue the Change’s Kiril Petkov was quickly ousted when There’s Such a People left the coalition and moved chairs to GERB. This coincided with Petkov’s government uncovering of a mobster scheme near the Turkish border which undermines food safety and common standards and expelling Russian assets in Bulgaria.
Why the coalition fell apart
Dismantling Borissov’s influence proved harder after his party won most votes – but not a majority – during the previous two elections. The impossible had to finally happen: in June 2023, the coalition stepped in power, based on a mutual pro-West and Euro-Atlantic perspective, Schengen and Eurozone entrance (balancing Brussels and Moscow has been one of the key aspects of Borissov’s art of survival: despite greenlighting controversial projects such as the Turkstream pipeline, GERB has always showcased a pro-EU profile). The deal between them was for a rotation government which would see the first nine months governed by Nikolai Denkov of We Continue the Change with GERB’s Mariya Gabriel acting as vice PM, and then Gabriel coming in as a PM.
In the months after the establishment of the coalition – often colloquially called “sglobka” [the ready-made, the put-together one] for the tense relations between the opposing blocks which previously claimed they’ll never work together – the government rotation was described by the leaders as an almost mechanical act, that won’t bring much tension. What followed was anything but that as Borissov’s cohort made it clear that they wouldn't govern unless they had almost full control.
The transfer of power triggered a series of clashes: the two blocks argued over the new ministerial list which GERB at one point announced without a coordination with their partners (a curious detail was GERB’s insistence over throwing out the adamantly pro-Ukraine Defence Minister Todor Tagarev of WCC), while WCC attacked GERB for wanting more power in order to stop judicial and national security reforms that would hurt GERB and Movement for Rights and Freedom’s legacy and ambitions. In his latest interviews, following the coalition fallout, WCC leader and 2021-2022 PM Kiril Petkov openly talked about Bulgaria’s “state within a state” governance, “a permanent power” permeating the institutions. He also said that influential actors in the national security and the judicial system are protected and irreplaceable by default.
Bulgaria’s current interim cabinet paves the way for GERB
As part of their shared pro-West tilt, during its short life, the coalition amended the constitution to limit the President’s rights to form an interim government, in a bid to block Radev’s ambitions. Now the President cannot just form a cabinet on his own but has to choose between the Chairman of the National Assembly, the Governor or Deputy Governor of the National Bank, the Chairman or Deputy Chairman of the Audit Office, or the Ombudsman or their deputies.
Here comes the twist: most of the people involved in these positions are tied to GERB. Essentially, WCC’s political naivety worked for Borissov’s comeback plan. With limited options, Radev chose Dimitar Glavchev as Bulgaria’s new caretaker Prime Minister. He was head of the Chamber of Audit but until 2023, a longtime member of GERB (however, a rather unknown figure for the general public).
Despite coming in power with a list of ministers, interim PM Glavchev is already demanding changes. On April 19, Glavchev and President Radev met to discuss the possibility of Daniel Mitov, a former PM nominee of GERB, to become the Foreign Affairs Minister. Borissov commented on April 17 that Glavchev’s ambition to bring Mitov in the cabinet as “a pure coincidence” and has distanced himself from criticisms that GERB are “shadow” ruling. By the end of last week, Mitov stated that he won’t chase the position anymore, which led to Glavchev offering himself as acting as also a Foreign Affairs minister (controlling this ministry has been an ambition of GERB since the beginning of the rotation).
Negotiations with GERB would be even harder from now on as the party can control the situation even through an interim cabinet if it would continue to be selected among GERB-tied unreformed institutions. However, a step back would mean more influence to the Moscow friendly President who has toned down his usual crossfires with GERB.
The potentially growing distrust in Bulgaria’s West-leaning parties is more than welcome for the pro-Russia narratives and by proxy, the perspectives in front of President Radev, Bulgaria Socialist Party and leading far-righters Revival. According to the latest analysis by the Human and Social Foundation - Sofia, published in March and reviewing data from the whole of 2023, over 1000 articles with content critical and conspirative against the EU are published per day, mainly through mushroom websites.
Opposition becomes feeble when it’s most needed
In light of the current events, the stability of the alliance between We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria is facing even further struggles, bringing more layers of frustration to their voter core. Green Movement party, a more marginal part of their alliance, announced that it will run independently in the elections and voiced criticisms that the block was ever in a coalition with GERB.
According to а survey by the Market Links agency on April 11, GERB is set to win the general elections with 25.5 per cent, safely ahead of WCC and DB (17.1).
This means that Borissov – who was elector mayor in Sofia in 2005 and grew to be a PM in 2008 – might not be just done yet but has actually secured his presence in the next few years.
By 2024 Borissov actually stands as Bulgaria’s greatest political survivor, always annihilating his opposition, always appearing as the lesser evil for the voters, by now, too fatigued to wait for the next white hope.
Bulgaria is heading to the ballots on June 9 to vote both in the polls for the European Parliament and – for the sixth time in just three years – in repeat general elections.