Belarus: has longtime strongman Lukashenko found a successor?

Belarus’ authoritarian leader, Aleksandr Lukashenko announced the date of the country’s next pseudo-election – this formal event will take place on January 26, 2025. Despite the fact that he announced his intent to run for yet another term (he’s already been in office for three decades), there are more and more rumours that he is looking for a person to become his successor. At the moment, the media are talking about Dmitry Krutoy, the head of the presidential administration, who is often accompanying him and even has substituted the 70-year old dictator at the meetings with Russian officials. So who is Mr. Krutoy and can he really become a person to overtake Lukashenko’s role?

From perceived reformer to Russia’s apologist

On June 27, 2024, Dmitry Krutoy, who was serving as Belarus’ ambassador to Moscow, was appointed head of Lukashenko’s administration, which formally made him the most influential official in the country after the dictator himself. The appointment wasn’t a surprise. It is quite a traditional move for Lukashenko, according to Pavieł Łatuška, a representative of United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, and a former Belarusian official (minister of culture) and diplomat (ambassador to Poland and France): “The appointment of Dmitry Krutoy as the head of his administration means that Lukashenko is sending a clear message to the Kremlin: I am appointing a person whom you know very well, the person who did everything to integrate Belarus with the Russian Federation as much as possible, who was responsible for the development and approval, adoption of 28 union programs, who contributed as much as possible to the incorporation of the military-industrial complex of Belarus into the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation, who ensured the production of what Russia needed to continue its aggression against Ukraine, who supports aggression against Ukraine, who signed a number of agreements with regions of Ukraine occupied by the Russian Federation. At the same time, he initiated the opening of a consulate general in Rostov-on-Don, the consular district of which is planned to be extended to the territory of occupied Ukraine. That is a person who is absolutely understandable to you, open and pro-Russian”.

But how has Krutoy got to this position? After graduating from Belarusian State Technological University in 2003 he started his career as a clerk in the Forest Industry Ministry. According to Pavieł Łatuška, Dmitry Krutoy has a family tradition of serving the regime: “There were rumours in government circles that much of the credit for the early stages of his career was owed to his father, who was the president of the Bellesapapierpram concern [responsible for the wood and paper production industry].”

Three years later Krutoy was moved to the Economy Ministry, where his career developed step by step and finally led to his appointment to the position of the Minister of Economy in September 2018. At the age of 37 Krutoy became the youngest minister of the regime. At that time, he was regarded as a symbol of the changes within the regime, and he actually stated that it was his duty to establish good relations with the Western states. When he was asked about that by a Belsat TV reporter (which is significant in itself – usually the regime officials ignored Belarusian independent media) whether the regime was “turning to the West”, Krutoy answered: “Absolutely. We have such a strategy. It is not a secret”.

However, 5 years later, Krutoy said at an event co-hosted by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs that “the Republic of Belarus is a fundamental military-political and economic ally of the Russian Federation. We fully understand the reasons that prompted the Russian leadership to make a forced decision to launch a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. In our opinion, the burden of historical guilt for this bloody conflict is shared equally by the collective West and the Ukrainian authorities”.

A subordinate loyal to his boss

These opposing point of view indicate that, on one hand, just like any other official of the Lukashenko regime, Krutoy can’t be considered an independent political actor: he is only voicing the position of the dictator, which can change any time for any reason. On the other hand, it shows that the whole game of imitating liberalism by the Lukashenko regime ended after falsified presidential elections in August 2020, subsequent protests and brutal crackdown on the civil society, mass repressions and enormous migration of Belarusians abroad both for political and economic reasons. In 2020 and after, Krutoy fully supported the actions of Lukashenko regime and refused to communicate with the officials, who took the side of the people.

This kind of behaviour led to another treat for Krutoy from his master. In August 2022, already after the start of Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he was sent to Moscow as an extraordinary and plenipotentiary ambassador of the Lukashenko regime – the position to be trusted only to a person absolutely loyal personally to the dictator in Minsk.

As we already know, in Russia he performed not only the functions of an economic representative, targeting the increase of trade and economic cooperation with local authorities and enterprises around the country, which is a usual and the most important function for Lukashenko’s diplomats around the world. He took the most active part in integrating Belarus into Russia on both legislative and practical levels. For example, earlier in 2024 he proposed to unite the bases of the so-called extremists of Belarus and Russia for the regimes to synchronise their efforts in prohibiting undesired materials and arresting political opponents on the territories of both states.

Is Krutoy an accomplice to war crimes committed in Ukraine?

On September 19, 2023, Dmitry Krutoy took part in the round table on the topic “Ukrainian crisis: the role of humanitarian and mediation initiatives of neutral actors”, organized by the Russian Diplomatic Academy with the support of the Russian Foreign Ministry. There he openly stated that: “the Belarusian side provides systematic assistance to the children of Donbass. […] Last December, at the invitation of the Belarusian leadership, the main New Year’s parties of our country were visited by children from the Luhansk People’s Republic (Lisichansk). From the beginning of 2021 to the present, more than 3.5 thousand children of Donbass have undergone a course of rest and rehabilitation at the well-known National Children’s Centre “Zubrionok” and other similar centres in Belarus. Basically, these are orphans whose parents died during the hostilities, or people from single-parent, low-income families. I would also like to point out that, contrary to the brazen lies of Western and Ukrainian propaganda, children were sent to Belarus for health improvement only with the consent of their parents and legal representatives”.

However, these statements were included the materials, provided by the representatives of Belarusian democratic forces to the International Criminal Court in Hague as possible proof of Lukashenko regime’s participation in illegal deportation of the Ukrainian children from the territories occupied by Russia, which is a crime against humanity and could eventually lead to arrest warrants issued for Lukashenko and his officials involved into the crimes against humanity on the territory of Ukraine. The ICC has already issued such warrants for Russian president Vladimir Putin and children’s commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova. If Belarusian officials would also be targeted, Krutoy may be one of these officials, as he discussed the issue of sending Ukrainian children to Belarus with Lvova-Belova.

Already in 2020 Krutoy was prohibited from entering the Baltic states because of participation in the repression against the Belarusian people. However, he surprisingly avoided being included in other sanctions lists of the Western states, in spite of playing a significant part in supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine.

The only certainty of Belarusian politics – for now, Lukashenko remains at the helm

It is necessary to note that this year, after returning to the country and being appointed head of the Lukashenko’s administration, Dmitry Krutoy began to actively control agricultural enterprises, which previously was one of the main public activities of Lukashenko. Instead of the dictator, he went to inspect the areas in the south of Belarus affected by the bad weather in July.

And even more, Krutoy started to meet with high Russian officials to discuss economic cooperation, which is usually done personally by Lukashenko. For example, on October 16, he met with the head of Khabarovskiy kray of Russia Dmitry Demeshin. And the next day he flew to Moscow to meet his Russian counterpart – the head of Putin’s administration. All these facts gave reason to believe that Krutoy is slowly taking on the Lukashenko’s experience.

There’s another argument used by the experts who think that Krutoy may be named Lukashenko’s successor: he isn’t a security officer, so he didn’t take personal part in repressing Belarusian people, so theoretically can be a figure that the West and the Belarusian democratic forces would be willing to negotiate with.

With all these being said, it should be noted that, for the time being it may be too early to bet on Krutoy – or anyone else for that matter – becoming one day Lukashenko’s successor. The Minsk strongman plans to stay in power for at least five more years, and that is a long time in a what is a charged region and global environment.