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July 20 marked the 30th anniversary of the establishment of Alexander Lukashenko's regime. Four years ago, his political stability in Belarus was seriously undermined by mass protests: democratic Belarusians at the time called for new elections and supported Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The break-up of demonstrations was followed by a brutal repression that forced many of them to leave the country, including the leader of the democratic forces. Veridica spoke to Tsikhanouskaya about the current state of the opposition, the release of political prisoners and what we can expect from the presidential election slated for next year in Belarus.
“We managed to show the whole world that Lukashenko does not represent Belarus”
VERIDICA: What are the main lines of action of Belarus’s democratic forces right now?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: Our main goals from 2020 onwards have been the release of all political prisoners and the organization of fair and free elections. Although we haven’t been able to achieve these goals, we did manage to report significant progress over the past four years.
First of all, we managed to show the whole world that Lukashenko does not represent Belarus. For almost 30 years, this country was perceived as an integral part of Russia. Everyone can now see that Lukashenko has dragged Belarus into the war and is renouncing its sovereignty, while Belarusians are defending their independence and waiting for a new window of opportunity to trigger a change. We also managed to show the world that Belarusian culture and language are different from their Russian counterparts. It became obvious to our foreign partners that we are on the verge of losing our national identity, that the regime is set on destroying everything Belarusian.
An important achievement was the fact that, in recent years, our international partners have not resumed their cooperation with the Lukashenko regime. Rather, international political forces prefer to collaborate with us.
“When Ukraine prevails, European forces must also support Belarusians”
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: We are also making efforts to bring to justice those responsible for crimes committed in Belarus. This is a long and difficult process, and it seems there is a lack of political will on the part of our allies. In spite of clear-cut evidence of crimes committed, no criminal investigations have been launched. But it’s something we continue to work on, and the latest sanctions against the regime, although they are not imposed as often as we would like, are nevertheless adopted.
An important achievement was that the world did not forget Belarus. New crises are arising across the world, but we insist that the fate of Ukraine is closely tied to that of Belarus, that one problem cannot be solved without dealing with the other.
VERIDICA: What do you mean?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: Sometimes I’m under the impression that all the forces of European states have mobilized to help Ukraine, and it’s something I fully support. One of my main positions when meeting with foreign partners is that Ukraine must be given everything it needs in order to win. But when Ukraine wins, they must also support Belarusians, because that will be the window of opportunity everyone talks about. Our problems cannot be solved separately, because the loss of Belarus will be a constant threat, both to Ukraine and to our Western partners. Our destinies are closely tied together.
I’ve sometimes heard concerns that, in the event of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, Belarus might be abandoned at Russia’s mercy. This is why I sought to secure the support of democratic leaders to ensure that such talks would not take place without representatives of Belarus being invited to attend. No “empty chairs” - no talking behind our backs. Belarusians should decide for themselves the future of their country.
“Ukraine's victory will weaken Putin, and then much will depend on Belarus”
VERIDICA: Just to make sure I fully understand – you’re saying the end of the war in Ukraine is seen as the most likely opportunity to determine a regime change in Belarus?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: We should understand there are several scenarios in play. Ukraine's victory will not automatically trigger a regime change in Belarus. This takes a lot of work. Ukraine's victory will weaken Putin, and then much will depend on Belarus and its actions at any given time. It is very important we act promptly to prevent Lukashenko from being replaced with a pro-Russian leader. And we have to take into account the balance of power in Russia.
VERIDICA: Have you already developed this action strategy?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: From a strategic point of view, we need to weaken the current regime as much as possible, both economically and politically, to strengthen the legitimacy of democratic forces and our society as a whole. When experts and ministers realize that Lukashenko and his administration are politically weakened, they will be presented with a choice: join the democratic forces or seek help from a weakened Russia.
I am sure that many people, including experts and people close to the ruling elites, understand the value of Belarus’s sovereignty and independence. They will side with those who are the strongest. And at that point we will have to take matters into our own hands. Perhaps we will witness the start of negotiations, not with Lukashenko, but with a representative of the regime who also favors change.
“We need to keep Belarus on the international agenda”
VERIDICA: As long as there is a war in Ukraine and Lukashenko supports Putin, it appears that democratic forces in Belarus are in a deadlock.
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: For me, a deadlock is when you hit a wall and can't get out. Conversely, there are a lot of things we can still do. One of them is to keep Belarus on the international agenda, to remind everyone about political prisoners and human rights violations. We need to convince our partners to keep putting economic pressure on Belarus, so they understand why they need to do it. Exerting pressure through sanctions is not an easy solution – we should not expect to see quick results. We know that Lukashenko uses various loopholes to evade sanctions, and we need to show our partners how he’s doing it. The most recent sanctions were adopted a year ago, whereas a new package is now being analyzed. Passing it requires consensus from all 27 EU Member States, which is very difficult to achieve.
“Sanctions are not as efficient as they should be. One radical measure would be to close down the EU-Belarus border to the traffic of goods”
VERIDICA: How would you describe the efficiency of sanctions as a strategy? You were saying we shouldn’t expect quick results, but how do you rate the current approach?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: If we take a look at sanctions separately, indeed, they don’t work. They should be part of a larger strategy of political isolation, which would make this regime a pariah in the eyes of the world. Right now, sanctions are not as efficient as they should be: Belarus finds ways to circumvent them by relabeling products, and Europe is aware of it. A dedicated oversight mechanism is required to verify this process. One radical measure would be to close down the EU-Belarus border to the traffic of goods: this would deal a heavy blow to the regime and its allies, who would start demanding the release of political prisoners.
“The over 200 political prisoners must be released unconditionally”
VERIDICA: Let's talk about them. You are often criticized for not trying to launch a dialogue between the European Union and Lukashenko on this issue. Is that true?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: We are constantly talking to our foreign partners about the need for dialogue. It’s a problem that affects everyone, including myself (Svetlana's husband is a political prisoner himself – e.n.). We appealed to the UN, the Red Cross, Tibet and the Vatican to help us establish a channel of communication. But it is impossible to reach an agreement with someone who refuses all means of dialogue. Lukashenko will be willing to talk only when his regime weakens. Our firm position is that Belarusians cannot be used as a bargaining chip. We know that ransoming political prisoners can lead to further arrests. A weakened regime might be willing to negotiate, but the people on the humanitarian list, those who are now actually dying in prisons (we are talking about over 200 people, including cancer patients, people with disabilities, diabetics, mothers with several children) must be released unconditionally. And the regime won’t agree to it.
“We always try to explain that only 4% of Belarusians believe that the Belarusian army should go to war against Ukraine”
VERIDICA: I often hear Europeans saying they don’t see the difference between Belarus and Russia and, as a consequence, between the involvement of the two nations in the war in Ukraine. Can you explain the difference?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: The mass protests of 2020, the participation of Belarusian partisans and volunteers in the war on the side of Ukraine, the numerous fundraising campaigns for the Ukrainian army, Belarusians being imprisoned for supporting Ukraine - all that has gradually prevented Ukrainians from identifying Belarusians with Russians. The massive voluntary mobilization of Belarusians in Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania, despite the fact that many of us are refugees ourselves, also played an important role.
We always try to explain that only 4% of Belarusians believe that the Belarusian army should go to war. This has not happened so far, not because Lukashenko did not want it, but because Belarusians won’t go to war against Ukraine. They value people's lives, and Ukrainians as a nation are very close to us.
“We must undermine the political and economic strength of the regime instead of relying on mass protests in the current context”
VERIDICA: A new round of presidential elections is scheduled for next year in Belarus. What are your expectations?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: I cannot refer to this ritual, this masquerade, this parody, as an election proper. Without radical change, there will be no alternate candidates, independent observers or vote counting in 2025. It will be a show that will play out according to a carefully crafted script, where Lukashenko will declare himself the victor.
We can't convince people to take to the streets to protest these things - that would be dangerous and pointless.
As far as our international partners are concerned, we urge them to declare in advance that this circus show is illegal and will not be recognized. Experience has taught us that there will be no democratic elections with Lukashenko in office. We shouldn't expect any grandiose development.
At present, Belarus is a police state, where people are sent to prison in the absence of a fair trial. Before the “election”, we might witness a new wave of repression. Every day, 15-20 people are arrested across the country, making Belarus reminiscent of the Stalinist era. That is why I think we should undermine the political and economic strength of the regime instead of relying on mass protests in the current context.
