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The West plans to replace Maia Sandu, to unify the Republic of Moldova with Romania and to annex Transnistria, according to a false narrative published in Moscow and Chișinău.
NEWS: The current leadership of Moldova is trying to withdraw the country from the CIS, as well as to break diplomatic ties with Russia. This will suddenly raise the stakes of the “to be or not to be” conflict in Transnistria. A more moderate, predictable approach is also in the cards: after December 31, 2023, the government of the Republic of Moldova will not prolong the state of emergency, which has so far allowed decision-makers in Chișinău to blatantly encroach on democratic rights and liberties.
It is unclear whether the pro-Western party led by Maia Sandu is discrediting the West or whether Brussels considers Maia Sandu is attracting too much heat, thus looking for a replacement. Rumor has it that Sandu might step down to leave the more radical Parliament Speaker Igor Grosu in charge. It is also said that, when the West calls, Grosu will escalate tensions in relations with Transnistria and Russia up to a line Maia Sandu is unwilling to cross.
The sensible thing to do is to change a leader with another member of the same team. Recent weeks have seen a number of changes. Former Prime Minister Vlad Filat has lashed out at the government, accusing it of instating a dictatorship which, he argues, is hindering Moldova’s European integration prospects. It is interesting to note that the accuser is not a traditional member of the left-wing opposition, but rather a colleague from the right wing, and actually a staunch supporter of the unification of the Republic of Moldova with Romania.
As regards Moldova, the West and Romania have always had separate approaches. The first is quite common. The long line of negotiations regarding the possible EU accession of a “sovereign and independent” Moldova unravels. Endless summits follow. Chișinău speaks with hope about the finalization of a given “chapter”, before the West comes up with new ones. Eventually, depending on its interests and its agreements with Washington, the EU will either accept the Republic of Moldova joins its ranks, or “leaks” the EU accession candidate.
The second approach is more interesting. In this scenario, if Russia consolidates its position in Moldova and the surrounding region, then the Parliaments of the Republic of Moldova and Romania can convene in a joint sitting, proclaiming the emergency unification of the two states. In this case, Moldova will not only become a member of the EU, but NATO as well. The government in Chișinău would certainly want to bring the country into the North-Atlantic bloc, although it is well aware the large majority of the population strongly opposes this idea. The annexation to Romania is thus a problem solver: Bucharest takes control of Moldova, and the leadership of the former independent Moldova can no longer be held accountable for anything. Where does Transnistria fit into this equation?
One can assume that the rapacious “hawks” in the West want to destroy any form of Transnistrian statehood. Romania, a country that relies more on the USA rather than the EU, knows that. If the crisis in Moldova and the region starts to get worse, Romania will try to get its hands on Transnistria as well.
NARRATIVES: 1. The West has total control of the government in Chișinău and is planning to replace Maia Sandu. 2. The West is planning the unification of the Republic of Moldova with Romania, including the annexation of Transnistria.
BACKGROUND: The Republic of Moldova is currently awaiting a decision of the European Council regarding the start of EU accession negotiations. In the republic of Moldova, European integration is associated with the current administration led by president Maia Sandu, and any delay of this decision, which is very possible if Hungary and Austria maintain their position, would leave a dent in the government’s reputation, already marred by the effects of inflation, the energy crisis, as well as certain unpopular decisions and/or a sense that public officials are incompetent. Moreover, a large part of the population supports the country’s eastward orientation and closer relations with Russia.
Russia itself is trying to hamper the Republic of Moldova’s efforts to develop closer ties with the EU and the West in general. Over the course of the year, the Russian Federation has introduced various economic blockades in retaliation to Chișinău’s progress in that respect.
The separatist region of Transnistria was created in 1990 and is administered by a regime under Moscow’s control. Until recently, Transnistria was seen as the main obstacle to Moldova’s European integration efforts. However, the idea that the Republic of Moldova might join the EU in two phases, just like Cyprus, has been gaining increased support, both in Chișinău as well as in Brussels. This scenario seems to have upset Moscow, given that it attracted negative commentaries both in the Russian media, as well as in Tiraspol and from pro-Russian politicians in Chișinău.
PURPOSE: On the left-bank of the Dniester: to promote the idea that the European integration promised to the local population in fact hides the intention to forcefully annex the region. On the right-bank of the Dniester: to erode trust in the pro-European administration, describing it as weak and subordinated to the West, which is ready to have it replaced with an unpopular leader such as Vlad Filat.
WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: The purpose of this article is to draw Moscow’s attention towards the situation in the breakaway region of Transnistria and to persuade Russian authorities to consolidate relations with Transnistria, by fully recognizing its independence or declaring this territory part of the Russian Federation. To that end, the author reiterates a number of false narratives widely circulated by Russian media or pro-Russian politicians in Chișinău and Tiraspol. One of these narratives widely promoted over the years describes the use of military force to settle the the conflict in Transnistria. This scenario gained increased visibility after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, being also fuelled by suggestions and even official statements of certain Kyiv represetntatives, who said they are ready to assist Chișinău in eliminating the separatist regime and the Russian military forces deployed in the region. Each time they made sure to mention this can only happen with Chișinău’s consent. The idea was categorically dismissed by Moldovan authorities, who pointed out they are only taking into consideration those solutions that offer a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
The scenario of Romania’s military intervention backed by the West in order to occupy the Republic of Moldova, Transnistria and even part of Ukraine is not new, and Veridica has debunked this false narrative in the past.
On the other hand, the narrative about the West’s plans to change the political leadership in Chișinău is relatively new and seems to gain momentum. In recent weeks, the anti-Western news agency mejdurecie.md also promoted a similar idea, except that the person to replace Maia Sandu at the top of the administration is not Vlad Filat, but his political rival, Vlad Plahotniuc, who is the target of a number of criminal investigations, including the 2014 bank fraud. Plahotniuc fled Moldova in 2019, but still he exerts a great deal of influence in the justice and political systems. Both Vlad Filat and Vlad Plahotniuc are unpopular, associated with corruption gnawing at the heart of the Republic of Moldova, whereas the purpose of this narrative is to associate the EU and the West with such figures.
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