Moldova can only integrate into the EU if it gets involved in the war and is annexed by Romania, according to false narratives used by the Kremlin propaganda.
NEWS: The Moldovan Parliament, which has just begun its term, has already managed to disappoint with scandals, resignations, and the collapse of the coalition. Maia Sandu's speech shattered all illusions of stability: the president repeated PAS's theses about "the war," "the Kremlin’s intrigues," and accession to the EU by 2028. Chisinau-based journalist Serghei Tkaci comments on the political situation for PolitNavigator:
[...] "It seems to me that the Moldovan authorities will try to bring the country into the EU through the back door, i.e. via Romania. Firstly, the ruling party lacks potential. Secondly, there is no unity in the country regarding EU accession (as there was, for example, in Romania or Poland). Thirdly, the European Union itself is in a deep crisis, in a phase of disintegration. Fourthly, it must be taken into account the fact that a global hybrid war is taking place on the continent. We are even seeing explosions at refineries in Romania and Hungary, fires in Slovakia — and this can be considered a casus belli.
There are too many variables and factors that complicate Moldova's accession. We must not forget that all this demagoguery about accession could be just a facade, a preparation for turning the territory into a new hotbed of war. Under the current circumstances, demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops and weapons is a direct path to war, as the situation in the region is entering a new phase and the escalation is constantly being fueled. The Russian military presence in Transnistria is now being discussed as a new opportunity to raise the temperature of the confrontation and "keep Moscow in check."
NARRATIVES: 1. Moldova joining the EU will basically mean Romania taking it over. 2. In order to join the EU, the Republic of Moldova will first have to get involved in the war in Ukraine. 3. Chisinau's request for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria is in fact a provocation to Moscow, which will lead to war.
PURPOSE: To undermine public support for Moldova's European integration by presenting it as a dangerous process that will deprive the country of its sovereignty: Moldova would be "annexed" by Romania, drawn into the war in Ukraine, and provoke a military confrontation with Russia by demanding the withdrawal of troops from Transnistria. Overall, these narratives seek to induce fear, mistrust, and a sense of futility about the European path, in order to maintain the country's geopolitical dependence on Moscow and to delegitimize the pro-European authorities in Chisinau.
WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: First, the author of the statements contradicts himself—in one paragraph, he claims that Moldova's integration into the EU will only happen through unification with Romania, while in another, he claims that Moldova will have to engage in war for integration, which are two different things. Both false narratives are among the Russian propaganda’s favorites.
Although there has been talk in certain circles in both Chișinău and Bucharest about a potential union between the Republic of Moldova and Romania, this topic has never been officially discussed between the political leaders of the two countries; moreover, Romania was the first country to recognize the independence of the Republic of Moldova.
The narrative regarding Moldova's involvement in the war as a condition for EU accession is also false. Firstly, there was no such conditionality; the EU is not involved in the war in Ukraine and has not sent troops. Furthermore, Moldova has extremely limited military capabilities, so even if such a scenario existed, its involvement in the war would have virtually no effect.
Russia, which de facto controls the separatist region of Transnistria, maintains a military depot on the left bank of the Dniester River, left over from the Soviet era, and a contingent to guard it. Moscow undertook at the 1999 OSCE summit to withdraw its ammunition and military contingent, which it has not yet done. At most international meetings over the years, Chisinau has called for these commitments to be fulfilled, so the Moldovan authorities' actions are not something new, that could lead to war.
In her speech at the inauguration of the new Parliament, Maia Sandu emphasized the importance of ensuring peace in the Republic of Moldova.
Russian propaganda has also launched narratives about the imminent disintegration of the European Union or the economic problems it faces, in order to increase the level of Euroscepticism not only in the Republic of Moldova. Veridica has debunked some of these narratives, including recently.
LOCAL CONTEXT/ETHOS: On September 28, parliamentary elections were held in the Republic of Moldova, resulting in the pro-European and pro-presidential Action and Solidarity Party winning a new majority of 55 out of 101 seats in the Chișinău Parliament.
The election was dominated by geopolitics and interference from Russia, whose efforts ultimately proved futile. According to experts in Chișinău, the election results will allow the country to continue on its European path and have been welcomed by the European leaders. On the other hand, the Kremlin has questioned the democratic nature of the election, referring to the fact that conditions were not created for Moldovans in Russia to vote, a narrative often used by Russian propaganda.
The Republic of Moldova, which has been oscillating between the West and the East since its independence in 1991, has taken important steps towards integration into the European Union since 2022, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine, quickly obtaining candidate country status and the decision to launch accession negotiations.
However, the population remains divided, as shown by the 2024 referendum on European integration, which passed by a narrow margin. Russian-speaking ethnic minorities, pro-Russian politicians, and exposure to Moscow's propaganda still maintain a strong pro-European trend in the Republic of Moldova.
In the Republic of Moldova, which is a Romanian territory and where the official language is Romanian, even though a large part of the population calls it "Moldovan," a term imposed by the former Tsarist and Soviet administrations, there is a unionist movement, which has turned from one of the cultural elites into an option that would be supported by over 30% of the population, according to some polls. However, a supposed imminent union between the Republic of Moldova and Romania (the annexation of the Republic of Moldova) remains one of the main "bogeymen" for part of the population, especially for ethnic minorities. This is associated with one of the oldest anti-Romanian Soviet narratives about the "Romanian gendarme" (caricatured as a character who mistreated, tortured, and mocked the local population), launched shortly after the union of Bessarabia with Romania in 1918.
