Although increasingly isolated and frail, Lukashenko clings to power

Although increasingly isolated and frail, Lukashenko clings to power
© EPA-EFE/MAXIM SHEMETOV/POOL   |   Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko attends a press conference following a meeting with Russia's President Vladimir Putin (not pictured) in Moscow, Russia, 13 March 2025.

Alexander Lukashenko’s looked frail and isolated at his 7th inauguration as Belarus president, consumed by old obsessions and leaning on his personal clan. The ceremony told more about the state of affairs in the regime than the dictator himself wanted it to.

An attempt to hijack a symbolic day for the opposition and Belarusian nationalists

The date picked for the ceremony was extremely symbolic in itself. March 25 is the national holiday of Belarusians – the day when the Belarusian People’s Republic was proclaimed in 1918. This was the first proclamation of Belarusian national state in history. However, the BPR didn’t last long, as Belarus was soon occupied by the Soviet Russia forces. But it was the inspiration for further generations of Belarusian patriots and from the late 80’s March 25 is celebrated as “Freedom Day” by Belarusians all over the world – but not by the Lukashenko regime. Being the successor of the USSR, Lukashenko personally prohibited this holiday just like the national symbols of Belarus. So, scheduling the “inauguration” on March 25 is an attempt to both mock the people supporting democratic changes in the country and to “capture the agenda” on this very day.

Lukashenko’s attempt completely failed, as there was a wide range of events organised by the Belarusian diaspora and democratic forces in many cities across the world: from pub parties with national music to big demonstrations. The biggest ones took place in Warsaw, Vilnius and Białystok, where the Belarusian diaspora is the most significant. While the Lukashenko regime enforcement agencies publicly threatened to identify all these events’ participants and hold “trials” against them in absentia.

However, inside Belarus there were only underground celebrations. At the same time, the people working for state institutions were made to watch the dictator’s “inauguration” ceremony on TV en masse (during the working time) and take pictures with the symbols of the Lukashenko regime in order to report about “full people’s support” of the dictator to the local authorities.

Back to the USSR aesthetics

The broadcast of Lukashenko’s inauguration brought to mind reels of USSR- era Communist party events, having nothing to do with the reality of ordinary people. Thus, for 15 minutes they showed how Lukashenko’s convoy of vehicles was driving to the so-called “palace of independence” – the place where the ceremony took place. Streets in downtown Minsk were closed for traffic and aligned with low ranking officials, state employees as well as students, all of them greeting the convoy as it passed. The funny point here is that the convoy wasn’t coming directly to the place of ceremony from the dictator’s residence – it specially took a trip round the city for this showoff.

When Lukashenko finally arrived and had to get out of the car, the transmission suddenly switched to the plan showing the big flag of the regime. After people began to discuss this moment on the internet widely, a Russian propagandist, Pridybailo, who was present at the event, published footage of Lukashenko getting out of the car – and the dictator didn’t look well to say the least. When they showed him coming into the palace one could easily see that every step for him was an effort. On important days like that, Lukashenko usually makes long speeches, but that wasn’t the case on March 25, and that gives further clues about his physical condition.

“Half of the world is dreaming about having a dictatorship like ours”

Lukashenko did held two shorter speeches. First, the dictator spoke in front of 1100 people, including his officials and, in a first since he came to power, all his three sons with their wives and children. This clan was seated separately from the nomenclature, just to the right of the tribune where Lukashenko delivered his speech. Many saw that as a demonstration of strength of the ruling family as well as and the will to show who will be closest advisors to the dictator and ones to benefit from all grey schemes controlled by the regime.

This 20-minutes speech was almost fully dedicated to the fact that the regime was able to suppress the people's uprising in 2020 and remain in power. He even addressed to all Belarusians, who support democratic changes in the country: “Remember the attempt at coup d'état in our country. Thanks to you, who sold your homeland for the grants, or rather in spite of you, we have become stronger. Because we cherish the peace that you jeopardize. We ensure the well-being that you jeopardize by asking your masters for sanctions and bombs. You have taught us to value and defend what we have. The people see everything. You do not and will not have support. You have no future. You and your handlers have nothing to counter our unity. I will say more: half of the world is dreaming about having a dictatorship like ours – the dictatorship of true deeds and interests of our people”.

The dictator also addressed his military and enforcement agencies, who afterwards were taking oath to him personally: the military statute and the oath have been specially changed to include the words “solemnly swear to be loyal to the president”. This very short 3-minute speech also included references to 2020, while Lukashenko thanked his servicemen for protecting the regime.

It’s important to note that for delivering that speech Lukashenko (having a military rank of private during his conscription service back in USSR times) dressed in a military uniform, especially designed for him. After that the military orchestra presented a brand new song – “March of the supreme commander”, dedicated personally to Lukashenko and including the following lyrics “In the name of people’s interests we keep moving, for peace, for president, for our Belarus”.

An increasingly isolated Lukashenko

Another point to mention is that there were no foreign guests at the ceremony at all. Previously, Lukashenko liked to invite his closest allies, but starting from the “secret inauguration” of 2020 he abandoned this practice. Which also resulted in the complete absence of congratulations from these “friends”. Even Putin’s press office didn’t publish anything on this occasion.

It looked like everything possible was done to convince all the present at the event and especially Lukashenko himself that all the Belarusian people fully support his rule. However, even some of the closest people to the dictator don’t seem very excited about all that show. For example, the officer of the Lukashenko regime administration in Homiel region Alena Kličkouskaja was caught napping during the dictator’s speech. This footage quickly became viral and the next day this official was fired.

Read time: 4 min