The PKK is giving up armed struggle, but wants recognition of the Kurdish minority. If Erdoğan accepts, Turkey can save its democracy and resume rapprochement with the EU, and the change in policy would also have regional implications.
Donald Trump said the USA might take over Gaza once Palestinians leave. No one in the Middle East can accept such a proposal because it would increase instability in the region.
Politicians, influencers, and some media outlets have promoted false narratives related to sovereigntist discourse, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, climate denial, and conspiracy theories, from "sanitary dictatorship" to moon landing.
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A key piece in the so-called "axis of resistance" built in recent decades by Iran has fallen. Russia loses its most important Arab ally in the Middle East. The future of Syria, uncertain. Risk of regional war.
The names floated for the incoming Trump administration suggest that the greater Middle East will remain a focus for Washington. An attention that Iran and Turkey do not like.
Russia's aggressiveness, China's expansion or the wars in the Middle East have all shown that the EU doesn’t have yet all it takes to be a relevant geopolitical player, although it aspires to this position.
The threat of a major war in the Middle East has diminished after the latest missile barrage exchange between Israel and Hezbollah. However, Muslim and Israeli extremists are blocking peace talks in Gaza and the long-term settlement of disputes in the region.
From the USA to China and Russia, from India to the Middle East, political leaders are over 70. Can they still make use of their experience to their advantage, or are they unable to adapt and have thus become a source of problems?
The war pitting Israel against Hamas could produce long-lasting effects, from a resurge of Islamist terrorism and compromising any hope of reconciliation between Israel and Arab countries, to the destabilization of the entire Middle East.
Israelis were shocked that Hamas had organized such a large-scale attack without the security services finding out. Will Netanyahu pay the political price for this failure, or will the formation of an emergency government save him?
In recent years, Turkey has increasingly tried to project its power outside its borders, be it the Mediterranean Sea, with Cyprus and Libya as key pieces in Ankara's policy, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, or the Caucasus. To achieve its goal, Ankara has relied on aggressive diplomacy, its defense industry and its military. This policy will continue in 2023 and its big stakes are Northern Cyprus and energy.
In the first half of 2022, Turkey seemed to be trying to tone down its aggressive policies in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. Yet all these efforts were but a ruse. In fact, Ankara never renounced key elements underlying its aggressive strategy. It has recently actually dialed up its aggression in relations with Tripoli, which can further deteriorate the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.
The first steps taken by the Biden administration in the Middle East mark significant changes as compared to the Trump era. The key allies to whom Trump had given a free hand in the region are now given a cold shoulder, while at the same time opening the gate towards a resumption of dialogue with Iran. It remains to be seen, though, how deep these changes are going to be or how long they will take.