As the war in Ukraine drags on, its economic fallout is being felt by Russia’s Central Asian allies. Forced to find alternative markets for their goods and labor force exports, these allies are discovering that Russia is losing its leverage, and they are becoming increasingly vocal.
Armenia’s drive away from Russia’s sphere of influence and towards an EU future is being challenged by a wave of pro-Russian narratives, as well as security and economic constraints.
Russia’s failure to provide security or reliable partnership has led local leaders to seek alternatives. Moscow is losing the role of default arbiter, while Turkey, the EU, the United States, and increasingly China fill the space.
From the Caucasus to Central Asia and the Baltics, former allies are distancing themselves from Moscow’s orbit, forging new partnerships, and openly challenging the assumptions that once underpinned Russia’s dominance.
The South Caucasus has a strategic position between Asia and the Black Sea, but its stability – and prosperity – are blocked by the three powers vying for influence there: Russia, Turkey and Iran.
As the development of trade routes between the West and the East is in full swing, Iran and Turkey risk being overlooked due to their own policies, despite their strategic position between the two regions.
Azerbaijan's authoritarian leader, Ilham Aliyev, was re-elected president after winning the Nagorno-Karabakh war and can turn his country into an energy and trade hub halfway between Asia and Europe.
The dismantling of the Nagorno Karabakh republic was the most important change in the South Caucus since Turkey (re)emerged as a powerhouse there. More changes might follow.
