Putin's invasion of Ukraine is first and foremost a warning to all those who are convinced that the shortcomings of democracy, especially there were it’s still in a process of consolidation, can be combated by a kind of transfer of expertise from authoritarian regimes. With the example of China in mind, but paying close attention to Putin's propaganda, many Romanians, including politicians, were convinced that, despite its “shortcomings”, authoritarianism was effective.
Turkey’s threats to veto Sweden and Finland’s NATO accession were interpreted as an attempt to secure certain concessions from the West in the context of economic difficulties at home. The previous policies of the Erdoğan administration – and of post-Ottoman Turkey in general – suggest that Ankara is actually pushing for more: it wants to impose its own agenda and perception over its allies.
The Baltic states are probably among the NATO countries most exposed to a possible Russian attack and were among the first to express concern about the aggression of the Putin regime. Their NATO membership offers them protection, but experts feel that the Alliance needs to consolidate its position in the region.
Despite measures taken by Moscow to secure a monopoly on information regarding the war in Ukraine, Russian independent journalists continue to cover this topic. Veridica has selected a number of press articles describing what is happening in Ukrainian oblasts under Russian control: how the Russian armed forces are abusing the locals, how men have started disappearing, how the new “military-civilian” administration is installed and who the key figures appointed as leaders of the newly conquered territories are.
The war in Ukraine is affecting the economy of the Republic of Moldova, which is already the poorest country in Europe. Tens of thousands of refugees are currently on Moldovan soil, the markets in Russia and Ukraine are much harder to access, imports from those countries are suffering, and all this is compounded by rising global prices and energy dependence on Russia. However, Chisinau could also benefit from the crisis, by accelerating its accession to the European Union.
Although it officially has a close partnership with Russia, China is in no hurry to support it now, when it faces economic and military issues as a result of the invasion of Ukraine. With the image affected by the way it handles the current pandemic wave, Beijing does not need more negative publicity now that Xi Jinping is preparing for a new term at the helm of the country. Moreover, the war in Ukraine seems to have affected China's plans to bring Taiwan under its control.
Outside Russia, Moscow’s representatives and supporters tried to mark Victory Day in ex-Soviet and ex-communist countries, but in most cases, their actions were overshadowed by protest actions against Russia’s acts of aggression or demonstrations of solidarity with Ukraine. Veridica’s contributors in ex-Soviet and ex-communist states have closely followed May 9 celebrations.
May 9 was a much anticipated event in Chișinău: a recent law forbids the public display of symbols associated with the Russian army and the invasion of Ukraine – the ribbon of Saint George and the letters Z and V. Previously, pro-Russians had announced they would ignore the law. Fears were running high that public unrest might break out. That wasn’t the case, and the demonstration actually resembled a display of communist nostalgia rather than an act of solidarity with Russia.
May 9 will be different than usual: celebrating it could be seen as a celebration of Russia’s aggression. While waiting for the events in Moscow and elsewhere to unfold, Veridica has set out to find out what May 9 may still mean in the former USSR and ex-communist countries, as reported by its correspondents in those countries.
A survey carried out by an independent center a month since the start of the war in Ukraine shows massive support from the Russian population for the so-called “special operation”, as well as for the Putin administration. The support might diminish as the people start feeling the effects of the conflict and of international sanctions.
As May 9 draws closer, the day when Russia and other ex-Soviet countries celebrate the victory against Nazi Germany, the number of incidents impacting Moldova’s weak spots increases. In Găgăuzia or Bălți, there are voices calling for breaching the law banning the symbols associated with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Several unclaimed “attacks” have taken place in Transnistria.
Europe’s reliance on large energy imports from Russia prevents the adoption of sanctions meant to deprive Moscow of sizable revenues, which it can use to feed its war machine. The West is looking for replacements, but unfortunately these are more often than not “smaller Russias” – authoritarian regimes that also stand accused of violating human rights.
PM Kiril Petkov faces numerous challenges in his desire to send military aid to Ukraine including severing his relationship with the man who introduced him into politics, President Radev. On top of that, Russia cut Bulgaria’s gas supply, adding to the challenges faced by the government.
A Russian general recently referred to Transnistria as one of the objectives of the second phase of the war in Ukraine. Will Russia stop in Transnistria, or will it actually reach Chișinău, which is literally a stone’s throw away? And what should Romania do if that happens? 1940 is the year on everyone’s lips these days…
Andrey Kurkov is one of the most important contemporary Ukrainian writers. He writes in Russian, but has been described as an "enemy of Russian culture." In an interview with Veridica, Andrey Kurkov spoke about Russia's return to the monarchy under "Tsar" Vladimir Putin, the decoupling - at least temporarily - from Russian culture, but also about Moscow's war against his country.
Poland's unequivocal support for Ukraine has overshadowed the tensions between Warsaw and its Western allies. However, the problems could return, given that Jarosław Kaczyński's Law and Justice Party does not seem to be giving up its ultra-conservative policies or its efforts to fully control the public agenda and the state institutions.
More and more international observers wonder if Turkish leaders, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in particular, are truly capable of implementing a change. There are some signs indicating this might be possible, although the more knowledgeable pundits remain sceptic, claiming that a return to the reformist agenda of the early years of the government’s mandate (2002-2009) is impossible.
There is now a great deal of coagulation in Ukraine over the national idea, and Ukrainians quickly understood, from the earliest days of the Russian invasion, that they have to either fight or be killed, says Nadija Afanasieva, director of the Ukrainian Institute for International Politics in Kyiv. In an interview with Veridica, the international relations expert explained what Vladimir Putin actually meant when he said that Russia had “noble intentions”, but also what the role of the Transnistrian region in the economy of this war is.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has unnerved Chișinău. Many talk about the risk the Republic of Moldova could be Moscow’s next target, something which Russian propaganda also suggested. On the other hand, the Republic of Moldova could also seize this opportunity to definitely break away with Russia and accelerate its integration into the Western world.
The media and some political theorists in Russia have begun to openly urge Moscow authorities to sanction the Republic of Moldova for its recent “oversights”, such as banning the symbols “Z”, “V”, directly associated with the Russian operations in Ukraine, and in particular the ribbon of Saint George, considered a symbol of the Russian army.
Russia claims Ukraine bombed targets on its territory. The lack of any strategic importance of these targets, as well as the similarities with disinformation narratives launched in the past by Russian propaganda, suggest however that Moscow is looking for new excuses to intensify its bombings in Ukraine.
From the massacres in former Yugoslavia and the genocide in Rwanda to Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine, the international community had to take action in order to bring criminals to justice. In the case of Yugoslavia and Rwanda, international courts of law were set up. In the case of Russia, a nuclear power with veto rights in the UN Security Council, identifying and prosecuting the people who committed atrocities such as the massacre in Bucha, might be more complicated, although there are solutions in this case as well.
Ukraine has been willing, in negotiations with Russia, to drop its aspirations to join the North Atlantic Alliance if it receives the security guarantees which is trying to present to the population as a "NATO of its own". The solution is less feasible now, when the parties seem to be negotiating rather to gain time.
The Republic of Moldova is intensifying its efforts to combat Russian propaganda. The Chisinau Parliament adopted, in first reading, a series of normative acts which, on the one hand, ban symbols associated with the Russian army and the invasion of Ukraine, and on the other hand, provide the state institutions with new tools to stop propaganda in the audio-visual media and online environment.
Despite the fact that during the last eight years the Russian propaganda has targeted mainly Ukraine, Kremlin did not forget the Baltic States and Latvia. On the one hand Latvia itself was targeted, on the other propaganda and disinformation about Ukraine and NATO were promoted as well.
Russia, USSR’s successor, has carried over many of the latter’s myths under Vladimir Putin, particularly those regarding its might and military strength. These myths are deeply ingrained in the collective mindset of people in ex-Soviet space. Still, the invasion of Ukraine has started shattering many of these myths, including those about the victorious army, the liberating soldier and the brotherhood of people.
Despite its overwhelming superiority in terms of military strength, Russia did not attain any notable objective in Ukraine, primarily due to the Ukrainians’ staunch resistance. Evidence of that can be found in the territories occupied by the Russian army, where the population refuses to accept occupation forces and the few local collaborators the Kremlin is trying to impose in key leadership positions.
In recent weeks, the Republic of Moldova has seen increasing pressure from Ukraine. Kyiv is persistently calling on Chișinău to take measures in order to rally itself to the international sanctions imposed on Russia. Such a move would be however irrelevant in economic terms, and wouldn’t represent such a strong signal not even at political level. Instead, it could cause bigger troubles for the pro-European government,
Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) got enough votes to easily form a government, with the Socialist Party of Serbia kept as a junior partner. However, President Vucic suggested that SNS may get a new coalition partner instead of the Socialists so, at the moment, the biggest uncertainty is who will form the government in Belgrade.
The Proekt team, declared an undesirable organization in the Russian Federation last year, returns with an extensive investigation into Vladimir Putin's health problems. The Insider writes how, before being assassinated, the politician Boris Nemtsov was pursued by FSB agents later involved in the poisoning of Alexei Navalny. Russian publicists are also pondering the chances of Putin being tried by the Hague Tribunal for war crimes.
Zelensky spoke up for Ukraine in front of numerous legislative and international bodies. Each time, the message carried a call for help and a plea to stop Russia. The speeches that conveyed this message were adapted to the specific audiences Zelensky addressed, including references to historical figures and events, as well as shared ideas and values.
Viktor Orbán is one of the longest-serving prime ministers in the history of Hungary. After three terms in office, he still enjoys widespread support. Illiberal policies, corruption allegations and the close ties with Russia doesn’t seem to affect Orbán’s odds to secure a fourth mandate of prime minister.
