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Parliamentary, presidential and Belgrade elections were held in Serbia on Sunday, as well as in 13 other municipalities in Serbia. Unlike the elections in 2020, which were mostly boycotted by the opposition, in these elections we had a somewhat uncertain election game. Many had hoped for political change, but all public opinion polls in the past month have indicated that there will be no change at the republican and presidential levels. The opposition boasted about the possibility of getting a candidate to the second round of the presidential elections, but incumbent Aleksandar Vucic pulled a convincing first round victory, winning almost 60% of the vote. The second place went to the candidate of the united opposition, Zdravko Ponos, who was voted by 18% of the voters, while behind him came the right-wing candidates who represented the surprise of this election.
Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) got enough votes to easily form a government, with the Socialist Party of Serbia kept as a junior partner. However, President Vucic suggested that SNS may get a new coalition partner instead of the Socialists so, at the moment, the biggest uncertainty is who will form the government in Belgrade.
A cleaner electoral campaign, more coverage for the opposition and a focus on the war in Ukraine
Unlike some previous elections, these elections were marked by the absence of a negative and dirty campaign against the opposition. Apparently the government wanted to leave a better impression on the voters and the international community, which largely followed the entire pre-election process. The inter-party dialogue that took place during the previous two years led to a lift of the boycott of opposition figures by the TV stations with national coverage. The opposition was given the opportunity to address the voters of the government who mostly watch these televisions, but that was not enough for a political change to happen. The election campaign took place as the Ukraine crisis turned into a full-blown war. The war completely shifted the public's focus from elections so during the campaign citizens could not follow much the political programs of the parties disputing the elections. The war also affected the outcome of the elections, because the political spectrum shifted to the right. The government tried a balancing act so it wouldn’t antagonize neither the West nor Russia or its own voters, who are primarily pro-Russian. That is the main reason Serbia refused to impose any sanctions on Russia, a decision that may soon change as the elections are over and the pressure from the international community will be increasing.
Vucic’s partners in the Socialist Party of Serbia were less prudent than the government and kept to an unabashedly pro-Russian line which actually paid off, bringing them an extra 100,000 votes. Vucic said publicly that some political actors used the crisis in Ukraine and the fan mood of the Serbian people to collect points, and he probably meant the Socialists as well.
Election day: high turnout, irregularities, and institutional opacity
Election Day in Serbia was marked by many irregularities, as well as a physical incident during which one of the opposition leaders in Belgrade was beaten. Tensions lasted all day, and the polling stations were very crowded, as the turnout was higher than average, at about 60%.
After the polls closed, the Republic Election Commission said that it would not give turnout projections, and the first preliminary results of the elections were announced only 24 hours later. This opacity of the Election Commission raised additional doubts about the election process and the election results. Instead of being announced by official institutions, the latter were made public by political parties and private polling organizations. The only thing missing were the results for the Belgrade elections, because that could have been the reason for protests and riots in the streets.
Despite the hopes of some voters that the opposition candidate Zdravko Ponos could enter the second round with Aleksandar Vucic, the dominance in the media and resources was too great in favour of Vucic. The president of the Serbian Progressive Party was voted by almost 3 million out of about 6.5 million officially registered voters.
The SNS will remain by far the strongest force in the Serbian Parliament. It will have no problem forming a majority. But the opposition has returned to parliament, which will contribute to its institutional struggle. According to preliminary results, the opposition will get between 80 and 90 out of 250 seats. Entering the parliament means not only new resources, but also a completely different position in talks with representatives of the European Union, the United States and even Russia, that is, with the international community.
A surprising outcome was the rise of the euro-sceptic right and far right: three formally minor parties made it past the threshold and together they got 13% of the votes. The eco-left MORAMO coalition, riding on a wave of public concern for environmental issues, became a newcomer in the Parliament with a better-than expected 4.5% result in the national elections and about 10% in the Belgrade elections.
After the elections: turning away from Russia and its allies?
Although the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) achieved a good election result, there was no celebration in their election headquarters, but the unusual concern of leader Ivica Dacic, Vucic's main coalition partner. The reason for concern may lie in the fact that the SNS could form a government without the SPS, which would mean the SPS kicked out of power after ten years. Why would Aleksandar Vucic make the decision to send his ten-year-old partner to the opposition?
It all has to do with the new international circumstances as well as the pressures that Vučić is suffering from the West to distance himself from Russia. If Vucic will decide to move away from his previous pro-Russian stance, in that case there is no place for the Socialists in the government. The SPS is considered Russia's main ally in Serbia, while its people are at the head of all public companies in the field of energy, which means that the Russians politically control the energy sector in Serbia. If Vucic decides to cleanse the government and public companies of pro-Russian people, then the SPS will go into opposition. This might not have happened if Dacic had not tried to take advantage, in his election campaign, to get votes by appealing to the feelings of voters in Serbia who root for Russia in its war against Ukraine.
Last week, the new American ambassador Christopher Hill arrived in Belgrade. Hill played an active role in the Balkans during the 1990s and diplomatic sources now say that Hill is bringing a new American policy for the Western Balkans, one that is not burdened by the past. But that may mean that in the future there is no place for the SPS and Ivica Dacic, who are essentially pro-Russian. This would be the biggest surprise of these elections, a major shift in both the domestic and the foreign policy of Serbia – especially considering that the results seem to indicate that not much has changed. Vucic's party could form a ruling coalition with the minorities, but also with the Democratic Party of Serbia, which is a moderate party of the right.
We shall see in the coming days and weeks whether Vucic will opt to keep his alliance with the socialists and not. Serbia’s future foreign policy – and maybe the entire course the country chooses – depends on that.
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