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On May 21, Chișinău will host an event that has been generically termed the “European Moldova” National Assembly. It’s an initiative of the current Moldovan administration, spearheaded by president Maia Sandu herself. The rally is supposed to unfold just like the Great National Assemblies which culminated in 1991 with the Republic of Moldova proclaiming its independence. This time around, the purpose is to prove that the majority Moldovan population wants the Republic of Moldova to accede to the European Union, all the more so as the rally is scheduled to take place just a few days ahead of the second Summit of the European Political Community, this year’s edition being hosted by the Republic of Moldova.
The event was announced in the context where Russia has been showing growing irritation with the Republic of Moldova’s European track, whereas the pro-Russian opposition in Chișinău has piled up pressure on the pro-European government, trying to capitalize on societal discontentment generated by the multiple crises that have affected the country in recent years.
The "European Moldova" National Assembly, a risky bet for governance
Maia Sandu publicly announced her decision to organize the “European Moldova” rally on April 10. The manifestation should supposedly be an expression of a heightened civic spirit, rather than a grandstand for political purposes. “Today I launch the initiative of calling a citizens’ gathering in Chișinău, whereby we should tell the world that we are a European people and this is the path we’ve chosen. /…/ Let this be an answer to everyone who wonders what the Moldovan people wants. A clear and unequivocal answer. Let the voice of the many, the voice of our people, be heard”, Maia Sandu said.
The Moldovan president pointed out that, right now, the Republic of Moldova is at a critical turning point. “Our actions today will influence our lives, the lives of our children and our children’s children. I therefore call on all our citizens, because in critical times politicians alone should not make capital decisions. Capital decisions are taken by people in the Great National Assembly Square. The time has come to stand together and become part of the European family”, Maia Sandu also said.
The timing of the event is crucial. Starting last year, the Republic of Moldova has become the target of a hybrid war launched by the Russian Federation. It was also last year that the first signs appeared indicating that Moscow could also have military plans for Moldova. At home, the party of the wanted oligarch Ilan Shor, who was recently sentenced to 15 years in prison in the investigation into the disappearance of $1 bln from the Moldovan banking system, has frequently organized protests and was part of a Russian FSB plan to stage a coup in the Republic of Moldova. All these actions are targeted against the pro-European administration in the Republic of Moldova and are designed to make the country return to its eastward orientation, a policy promoted by leftist pro-Russian factions during their term in power as they pushed for closer relations with Moscow.
Maia Sandu’s initiative is a risky bet. First of all, it might remind certain opponents of the current regime in the Republic of Moldova of the rallies staged in the old days by the former communist president, Vladimir Voronin, or by the controversial politician and businessman that led Moldova from the shadows for a number of years, Vladimir Plahotniuc. The two used to stage rallies constantly attended by employees of certain public institutions, who were threatened with various sanctions in case they refused. In order to shun baseless criticism and allegations that its initiative is no different from what Voronin and Plahotniuc used to do, the government in Chișinău will have to be extremely careful and avoid using administrative resources.
Secondly, the event will need to have impeccable logistics, also with respect to transporting citizens in order to ensure the maximum turnout possible. This is the only way the upcoming rally could reach the scope of the “national” assemblies in the past. A low participation rate would definitely be used as leverage by anti-European propaganda and the pro-Russian opposition.
The “European Moldova” National Assembly is scheduled to take place just days ahead of the second summit of the European Political Community, a platform for debating the future of Europe, created by France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, shortly after Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine. The European Political Community brings together the 27 EU Member States and 17 European states that are not part of the EU (most of which want to join the community bloc and are in various accession negotiation stages), as well as the presidents of the European Commission and the Council of the European Union.
The European Political Community Summit to be held on June 1 in the Republic of Moldova is designed to reassert the message of EU institutions, conveyed on different occasions as well: the Republic of Moldova is a European country that has every right to become a member of the European community. Provided, of course, it has fulfilled all the necessary accession criteria.
Russia – signs of increased irritation with respect to the Republic of Moldova’s European aspirations
Chișinău’s unprecedented rapprochement with the EU, particularly after June 23, 2022, when this country obtained the EU candidate status, seems to increasingly irritate the Russian Federation. This is perhaps also due to the fact that several of Moscow’s attempts at bringing Chișinău back into its sphere of influence have so far failed. So has the energy blackmail during the cold season, because the Republic of Moldova successfully managed to get through the winter with support from Western countries, Romania included. Attempts at toppling the current regime led by Maia Sandu and replacing the Cabinet with pro-Russian parties, such as the one led by fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, were also unsuccessful. The attempts at blocking the reform of the judiciary with the help of facilitators such as Ilan Shor or Vlad Plahotniuc, designed to amplify societal uncertainty, also seem to have failed.
The growing tensions between Chișinău and Moscow have recently boiled over into a new diplomatic row. An employee of the Russian Federation’s Embassy in Chișinău was expelled from the Republic of Moldova on April 19, after an altercation with the Border Police on the airport in Chișinău.
In response, the Russian authorities expelled an employee of the Moldovan Embassy in Moscow and declared the Moldovan Interior Minister, Ana Revenco and the MPs of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), Oazu Nantoi, Olesea Stamate and Lilian Carp personae non-grata in the wake of “Chișinău’s anti-Russian statements and hostile actions”.
In turn, Maia Sandu has accused Moscow of “not observing the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova”. “Moscow is trying to destabilize the Republic of Moldova in order to prevent these changes from happening, to undermine our European track, because Moscow wants chaos, corruption and poverty to grip the Republic of Moldova. It wants governments it can buy and control. This is the only way it can advance its own agenda. We stand for something different, we want our country to be free, to build prosperity here and consolidate our institutions so they may be able to defend our citizens”, Maia Sandu said.
The EU is consolidating its presence in Chișinău with a new mission, led by a Romanian diplomat
Amidst escalating tensions between Chișinău and Moscow, on April 24 the European Union announced the creation of a civilian assistance mission in the Republic of Moldova. One of the key objectives of the mission will be to strengthen the security of this country, particularly cyber security, as well as to combat disinformation and foreign interference. “As one of the countries most affected by the fallout of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, we witness increased and continued Russian attempts to destabilize Moldova with hybrid actions. Today we are stepping up EU support to Moldova protect its security, territorial integrity and sovereignty. The deployment of this new mission is yet another important political sign of the EU’s support in the current difficult circumstances”, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell stated.
Romania’s current ambassador in Vilnius, Cosmin Dinescu, has been appointed at the helm of this mission. “Held under the aegis of the Common Security and Defense Policy, this is the first civilian mission undertaken by the EU in the Republic of Moldova, marking a success of the constant and persistent actions of Romania and the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs designed to increase the profile of the Republic of Moldova on the EU’s agenda and to consolidate the security and resilience of this country”, the Romanian Foreign Minister, Bogdan Aurescu, has pointed out.
The EU choosing to appoint a Romanian diplomat to head its mission cannot possibly sit well with Moscow or pro-Russians in Chișinău, who blame Romania for Moldova’s misfortunes, undermining their efforts to anchor the Republic in the so-called “Russian World”. Among other things, these efforts also include the promotion of Moldovenism and the myth of the “Romanian gendarme”, associating modern Romania with fascism, ungrounded allegations dating back to the Voronin regime regarding Romania’s attempts at staging a coup in Chișinău, or the recent propaganda narratives about Romania’s plans to attack the separatist region of Transnistria and/or to achieve the unification with the Republic of Moldova by force. Obviously, the pro-Russian opposition disregards the fact that Romania has from the very start supported the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, providing it with long and medium-term assistance programmes as well as specific support in times of crisis. Romania has constantly lobbied for Chișinău’s agenda in talks with its European partners.
Moldova wants to fast-track its EU integration, although only a victory for Ukraine in the war could ensure the Republic will drift away from Russia’s orbit
Maia Sandu and PAS have won the elections with a strong pro-European program, which earned them an unprecedently large number of votes for a politician / right-wing party in the Republic of Moldova. Prior to the pro-Europeans winning the elections, starting with the so-called Twitter Revolution of April 2009, Moldovan politics has been dominated by parties with a pro-European rhetoric (which admittedly did not always transpire in the actions of these Cabinets).
In the 11 months that have passed since the Republic of Moldova obtained the EU candidate status, the process of drifting further away from Russia has accelerated, despite Moscow’s constant attempts at undermining Chișinău’s rapprochement with the West. In this context, the “European Moldova” rally of May 21, as well as the European Political Community Summit on June 1 are expected to further consolidate the Republic of Moldova’s European track, which, truth be told, still depends on the success of the Ukrainian army against the invading Russian troops on the battlefield.
