The Czech Republic has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters ever since Russia launched its large scale of the country, in February. However, pro-Russian groups are increasingly active in the Czech Republic, and they are trying to capitalize on the population’s financial and economic worries.
Who is fueling the protests? From pro-Russians to cringe politicians
In early September, the Czech Republic experienced the largest demonstration in recent months. According to police estimates, some 70 000 people gathered on Wenceslas Square in downtown Prague. Those present were united perhaps only by their opposition to the government of Petr Fiala, but otherwise the participants included a very diverse mosaic of various pro-Russian, anti-system and extremist groups. Alongside these groups there were many people that went just because they are afraid of the current developments or they started to feel financial difficulties.
This is precisely the dangerous factor. So far, pro-Russian forces have called a number of demonstrations, but the turnout was mostly low – always only few like-minded people came. This was not the case now; thousands of "normal" citizens took part in the protest.
Therefore, the big question for now is how the government, on the one hand, and the protests’ organizers, on the other, will continue to deal with the discontent in society. Let's take a closer look at who the latter are and what their chances are of sparking a larger protest movement.
The demonstration was called and announced by Ladislav Vrabel, a hitherto insignificant activist who had organized small protests against the Covid measures. He started as a local political activist in the South Bohemian town of České Budějovice, where he also ran a pizzeria. However, his business failed and he is now insolvent. At the beginning of March, he reported on his social media that he was transporting a busload of Ukrainian refugees to the Czech Republic, and even had two women working in his restaurant. Half a year later, he was already organizing a demonstration aimed, among other things, at the "planned dilution of the nation" by Ukrainian refugees, and demanding military neutrality. Earlier, Vrabel had called protests against migration and anti-Covid measures.
The second organizer was businessman Jiri Havel. He was very active in organizing demonstrations during the pandemic period when, among other things, he advised people on how to treat Covid with industrial disinfectants.
The September protest was attended by fringe and mostly strongly pro-Russian politicians, like the Communist Party's presidential candidate, Josef Skála, who once confessed in his biography that in August 1968 he welcomed the Soviet occupiers at dawn, at the airport.
I think it is unlikely that these people will be able to organize a strong and lasting protest movement; they are only reaching to a narrow circle of people. But it is not impossible that someone else would use the protest potential.
Some of those joining the protests have legitimate economic concerns
The first reaction of Prime Minister Petr Fiala, who is also the leader of the right-wing conservative Civic Democratic Party, didn’t look like that the politician want to calm the situation. The same day, he pointed out that the protest was backed by pro-Russian forces who want the Czech Republic to leave the European Union and NATO. "They want to make us a vassal of Moscow again," he said.
Other government politicians then tempered his remarks in apparent shock at the size of the protest. But the prime minister stood by his words.
Political analysts and other experts repeated that the people are worried about the future because of rising prices as some have begun to run out of money. Some analysts blamed the government for poor communication that is deepening the citizens' uncertainty.
"Yesterday's demonstration managed to bring together people from different social classes, with different motivations. In this it is very unique. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if it turned out that the main drivers were some form of Russian influence. There is no point in pretending that Moscow is not conducting any such operations here. Russia is in a situation where it needs just such activity," political analyst Jan Charvát assessed the situation.
At the same time, he noted that "a politician has to think about what impact the statement he lets out will have." "He cannot comment on such a serious matter in such a way – his statement can easily be understood to mean that all the people who filled Wenceslas Square are pro-Russian forces. And this statement only confirms the fact that the government has not mastered communication to the rest of society," the political analyst added.
After initial hesitation, the government finally stepped in and decided to cap energy prices, announcing the decision about ten days after the demonstration.
"The immediate reason was the rocketing electricity prices at the end of August, which shocked practically the whole of Europe. This is a direct consequence of Putin's economic war against the West. While Russia is attacking Ukraine with weapons, it is using energy price manipulation against the rest of Europe. His aim is to jeopardize the social security of the people of European countries, to disrupt their economies, to undermine citizens' trust in the state and in democracy as such, and to pit individual European countries against each other," explained Prime Minister Petr Fiala in an extraordinary televised speech.
The government has also launched a media campaign explaining how to apply for state aid.
Is the Czech Republic heading for a hot autumn?
It is difficult to predict how the situation will develop further. The same organizers have announced another demonstration for 28 September, and the unions led by presidential candidate Josef Středula are calling for a protest on October the 8th.
So is the Czech Republic in for a hot autumn? While that seemed to be the case not so long ago, there are a number of new factors that are making this scenario less likely. The capping of energy prices may have calmed the situation and the Ukrainian successes on the front are bringing considerable uncertainty to the pro-Russian camp. These circumstances speak more in favor of calming down.
In addition, municipal elections are coming to the Czech Republic in late September. They will show the current balance of forces and may give the political scene a new dynamic. The main thing to watch is how things will turn out in Prague and whether the governing coalition will manage to win the capital as well. The coalition is now made up of five parties: the Civic Democrats, TOP 09, the Christian Democrats, the Mayors and Independents and the Pirates. Shortly after its coming to power, the government had to start dealing with perhaps the biggest crisis of this century – the Russian attack on Ukraine and its consequences, including rising energy prices.
The Government took a very clear position towards Russia, and the Czech Republic became one of the biggest supporters of Ukraine within the European Union. In this position, the government initially had almost unanimous support in society, and pro-Russian groups were practically silent. This gradually began to change at the end of spring and in the summer. The opposition in the Chamber of Deputies began to question the extent of the help to the Ukrainian refugees on the territory of the Czech Republic and also supplies of weapons to Ukrainian army. Openly pro-Russian politicians also became much more active – the best example is the demonstration of early September.
A recent STEM poll also shows the growth of the opposition SPD movement, which is pro-Russian and opposes sending arms to Ukraine. With 14.3 percent, it would have finished second if election took place in early September. The first place would’ve been held by the opposition ANO movement, which is not so stridently pro-Russian but whose head, Andrej Babiš, was critical about delivering military equipment to Ukraine.
Before the holidays, the Czechs' willingness to help Ukraine was also declining, not only in the military sphere, but also in the diplomatic and humanitarian sector.
There have also been the first cases of Czech representatives visiting occupied territories. While in previous years, despite warnings from the Foreign Ministry and Ukraine itself, these trips were relatively frequent, they stopped after the Russian attack. It was not until the beginning of August that Senator Jaroslav Doubrava, who has long been one of the most visible supporters of Russia in the Czech Parliament, showed up in Simferopol. While there, he held talks with representatives of the occupying power, including Sergei Aksenov. At the same time, the Czech cliff diver Michal Navrátil took part in the competitions in Crimea.
Unfortunately, it turns out that in addition to politicians, high-ranking officials were also willing to act in Russia's interests. It was only when Vladimir Putin launched the war against Ukraine that an employee of the Czech Foreign Ministry, who for several years had been passing information (including classified information) to the Russian External Intelligence Service (SVR) and had been paid for it, was fired from the Czech Foreign Ministry. The paradox is that this person, who had security clearance to the highest level, will probably not be convicted. Indeed, wiretaps and other evidence obtained by the secret services cannot be used in court.
Overall, the situation is not as bad as these few cases might make it seem. Most Czechs support Ukraine and certainly have no intention of collaborating with Russia. What we are seeing is a kind of return to "normal" after the shock that society suffered after the Russian attack on Ukraine. This is compounded by the uncertainty caused, above all, by the steep rise in energy prices and the general tension that the war is bringing. Paradoxically, it’s the main culprit of this situation – Putin's Russia – who benefits from it the most. Moscow needs incoherence within individual Western states and, as a result, between the Member States of the European Union and NATO, it’s practically its only hope. The West must continue to respond decisively to Russian aggression, and this is still happening. It was also thanks to this that Ukraine was able to break through the Russian defence lines in the Kharkiv region in a completely unexpected way. And these successes, in turn, act as a great encouragement to states that might hesitate to help.
