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The war in Ukraine has accelerated the process by means of which the Republic of Moldova has been distancing itself from Russia. After the elimination of economic and energy dependence, Moscow's remaining levers are pro-Russian propaganda and parties.
The war in Ukraine has accelerated Moldova’s distancing from Russia
Moldovan - Russian relations have become increasingly complicated in recent years, a phenomenon that has intensified since the war against Ukraine started. The Republic of Moldova, led by a pro-European political force, has tried to distance itself as much as possible from Moscow and get closer to the West. Chisinau has consistently condemned the brutal war started by Russia in Ukraine, a war that has also strongly affected the Republic of Moldova.
President Maia Sandu has stressed more than once that the Republic of Moldova is the second most affected state by this war, after Ukraine. For example, in 2022, the year Russia attacked Ukraine, the Gross Domestic Product of the Republic of Moldova decreased by 6%.
The war in Ukraine has accelerated the Republic of Moldova’s distancing from Russia in the most important areas. The Chisinau authorities have tried to redirect Moldovan exports to countries other than Russia (which have decreased considerably since 2006). The political relations between the two states became increasingly tense, and the diplomatic ones ended up being practically frozen, especially after Chisinau expelled, in August, 45 Russian diplomats, accused of espionage. The Russians did not succeed in blackmailing the Republic of Moldova with energy either. In October 2022, Moscow stopped supplying natural gas to the territory controlled by Chisinau and provided gas only to the Transnistrian region, controlled by a pro-Russian separatist regime. During the same period, the Cuciurgan thermal power plant, located in Transnistria and controlled by the Russian company RAO EES, stopped selling electricity to Chisinau, thus triggering a deep energy crisis. The Republic of Moldova managed to overcome it with the help of Romania, which supplied it with electricity; it bought natural gas from the European market and brought it home, including through the Iasi-Ungheni-Chisinau gas pipeline, previously built with Romanian and European support.
The crisis lasted a month, after which the Transnistrian side agreed to sell electricity to Chisinau, one of the reasons being that the Moldovan authorities, in turn, had blocked the exports of the Râbnița Steel Works. The two enterprises – the powerplant in Cuciurgan and the Râbnița Steel Works - are the economic agents from the taxes of which the largest part of the budget of the separatist Transnistrian region is formed. Tiraspol apparently did not last long without the money earned from selling electricity. Chisinau, for its part, unblocked the exports of the Râbnița Works.
In October 2022, Chisinau stopped buying natural gas from the Russian corporation Gazprom, ensuring its consumption from other sources and managing to secure important reserves for the coming winter. Currently, according to the Minister of Energy, Victor Parlicov, the Republic of Moldova has gas stored in Ukraine and Romania, enough to cover its consumption until February.
The taking over by Transgaz Romania of gas transport operations in the Republic of Moldova is another step towards the energy security of the state and the reduction of geopolitical dependence on the Russian Federation, believes political analyst Ion Tăbârță.
In his opinion, this is due to the energy interconnections with Romania, especially the construction of the Iasi-Ungheni-Chisinau gas pipeline. In order to strengthen this energy security, the analyst says, it is also important to build the electricity interconnection lines with Romania as quickly as possible.
"This means that the Republic of Moldova is reducing its geopolitical dependence on the Russian Federation. We know very well that the Russian Federation had several levers of influence and control over the Republic of Moldova. The main one was energy – the total dependence on gas imports from the Russian Federation and the dependence of the right bank of the Dniester on the left bank in terms of electricity. This energy dependence of the Republic of Moldova on Russia began to decrease when energy interconnections with Romania started being established, first with the construction of the Iasi-Ungheni-Chisinau gas pipeline, and we see the strategic necessity of this gas pipeline. The fact that Moldovagaz will no longer control the transport networks [...] is heading things in this direction, of energy independence. We still have the aspects related to electricity, but here too the Republic of Moldova is moving towards security. The construction of the high voltage line from Isaccea to Vulcanesti and then to Chisinau will also mean a lot, as that would lead to the total independence of the Republic of Moldova from the Russian Federation", believes Ion Tăbârță.
In his oppinion, even the Transnistrian conflict can no longer be an element of pressure on Chisinau, given that both Maia Sandu and some European leaders believe that the Republic of Moldova could join the EU without the Transnistrian region. Moreover, after integration, the economic situation in the territories controlled by Chisinau will have Transnistria seek a rapprochement with them.
Pro-Russian propaganda and parties, the last layers that Russia has in Moldova
The steps taken by Chisinau recently to distance itself from Russia obvioulsy tiggered reactions from Moscow. The spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zaharova, stated in August that "the Moldovan authorities stubbornly continue to push the country towards the abyss", and the "collective West" is doing everything possible to draw the Republic of Moldova into the conflict in Ukraine.
“Chisinau, immediately after the start of the special military operation, began large-scale deliveries to Ukraine of various goods - fuels and lubricants, medicines, food. […] Not by chance, under the supervision of the USA and the EU and at their expense, alert activities are being carried out today to improve the critically important railway and road infrastructure of Moldova. With an enviable regularity, American inspectors evaluate the possibilities of receiving large-capacity aircraft at the Chisinau airport. In this regard, I would like to warn Chisinau against a deeper involvement in the process of "supporting" Ukraine, which will not only endanger stability and security in the region but will actually turn Moldova into an accomplice to Kyiv’s war crimes," she added.
According to Maria Zaharova, "in addition to expanding the powers of local intelligence services that use totalitarian practices in the fight against political opponents of the regime, an initiative to create another tool to suppress dissent in the public space received legislative endorsement - on August 18, the law regarding the Center for Strategic Communications and Combating Disinformation entered into force [...] Chisinau does not hide the fact that the activity of the new structure will be aimed at countering "Russian propaganda". It is not clear, however, what kind of "Russian propaganda" we can talk about in modern Moldova, since the authorities of this country, seriously violating all their international obligations in the field of ensuring freedom of the press, have already completely sterilized the information space of Russian mass media resources”.
Ion Tăbârță says that, although Zaharova denies the existence of Russian propaganda in the Republic of Moldova, this propaganda remains one of Moscow's last levers of influence, along with the pro-Russian parties that still have quite a large influence in Moldovan society and are increasingly active, in especially in the run-up to the local elections that will take place in the Republic of Moldova on November 5.
The Republic of Moldova, says Ion Tăbârță, should expect interference from the Kremlin in this election, because it is an important one, especially from the perspective of the elections that will follow in 2024 and 2025.
“ These elections are important in light of the others that are due in the next two years, first the presidential elections and, subsequently, the parliamentary elections of 2025, after which we will know what we have: a reconfiguration of a political power that will keep going along the European path or, on the contrary, other forces will come that will try to stop the European course of the Republic of Moldova. We know very well that the Russian Federation wants to take political control in the Republic of Moldova and that it will try to find different ways, and not the most diplomatic ones, to achieve the goal set for the Republic of Moldova", Ion Tăbârță said.
In his opinion, a serious issue is also the fact that, in the Republic of Moldova, the most important opposition parties - the Party of Socialists, the Party of Communsits, the "Renaissance" Party and the "Chance" Party (the last two splinters of the outcast Shor Party) – are pro-Russian and, apart from Maia Sandu, there are no other pro-European leaders who enjoy wide support. The favorite in Chisinau in these local elections, according to polls, seems to be the current mayor Ion Ceban, the leader of the "National Alternative" Movement, also suspected of pro-Kremlin sympathies.
From this perspective, the local elections on November 5 must be seen as a first litmus test in the geopolitical battle that the Republic of Moldova will have to go through in the next two years, crucial for the future of this state that will either be anchored, finally, in the Euro-Atlantic space, or will complete the list of Russian satellites, along with Belarus, Syria or North Korea.
