In the previous five terms, Benjamin Netanyahu governed Israel in various ways. Most of the times, the inclusion of left-wing parties secured a governmental balance. The sixth puts the veteran of Israeli politics in the position of steering an alliance that may seem bizarre to many. Not to Bibi. So where should we position the Netanyahu 6 government? In the center? Center - right? To the right? Or the far right?
The coalition that King Bibi is endorsing depends on ultra-nationalist and religious parties, which will wield unprecedented power. Paradoxically, Likud is the most moderate party in this context. Benjamin Netanyahu is in a position to literally perform a political tightrope dance so that the goals of his far-right governing partners at least appear to be being advanced without upsetting the Arab allies of Israel and the United States. And that will be the biggest challenge. Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition aims to expand Israeli settlements in the West Bank, a plan Netanyahu stuck to in the previous governments. However, there are parties in the current coalition that even dream of an annexation of aria C in the West Bank, controlled by the Israelis.
Stopping Iran's nuclear program, a priority for Benjamin Netanyahu's government
In his speech in the Knesset on the day of his swearing-in, amid the shouts of opposition members, I heard Netanyahu stress that he and his government want to counter Iran's nuclear program, expand Israel's ties to the Arab world, in other words Saudi Arabia, and modernize the country's infrastructure.
“We have to make sure that Iran will not annihilate us with nuclear bombs”, Netanyahu said from the rostrum of the Israeli parliament. Even though Iran has been a dominant theme in Netanyahu's speeches for many years, we must understand that Iran is not just the Israeli prime minister’s obsession. Recently, in one of his rare public interventions, the head of MI5, Ken McCallum, singled out Iran as the state “which most frequently crosses into terrorism”. He said Iran's intelligence services “are prepared to take reckless action” against opponents, both on Western soil and by luring people into Iran. And Ken McCallum also said, considering the current world context: there is a risk that Russia, China and Iran will help each other to increase their power. That the Iranians supply the Russians with kamikaze drones, and that's just what came out into the public space, and is no longer a secret. What Russia is offering in return is less clear.
The two-headed Israeli government that preceded Netanyahu's return preferred to tackle the Iranian issue head-on. Last summer, the then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett explained why and how Israel and its secret services were raising the stakes in the shadow war waged for nearly 40 years. In the past, Israel's anti-Iranian operations have mainly targeted Tehran's nuclear program and scientists connected to it. Whenever Israel has targeted other Iranian targets — like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Al Quds unit, which specializes in unconventional warfare operations and military intelligence — it has sought to operate in a third country, such as Syria. The government of Naftali Benet and Yair Lapid, however, came with a direct approach attacking the Revolutionary Guard inside Iran as well. Last February, just 6 days before the Russians invaded Ukraine, Israel struct a drone factory in western Iran. It's a discreet strategy, far from the public eye, that Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to alter, bringing the Iranian issue back into the public eye.
After signing the Abraham Accords, Netanyahu wants to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia
At the end of the year, President Joe Biden said that the Iran nuclear deal was dead, but that such a thing would not be announced publicly. Coincidentally or not, a video clip of the White House leader saying exactly that has nevertheless reached the public space. For Benjamin Netanyahu, however, this is not a guarantee. The fact that at the first government meeting this year, Bibi presented the new approach on the matter, shows that the Israeli prime minister is not willing to swallow just anything when it comes to Tehran. Netanyahu told the cabinet meeting that there was a “possibility” that Western powers would revive efforts to sign a nuclear deal with Iran and that Israel would exert public pressure to prevent it.
We must admit that Netanyahu, for all his sins, has a vision that in the long run could change the face of the Middle East. The Abraham accords were the historic step taken in the region towards the normalization of relations with some Arab countries. In this logic, Netanyahu puts as a priority on the foreign policy agenda, after Iran, the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia.
Three years ago, the Saudi Foreign Minister, Adel al Jubeir, told me that “Iran does not respect the principles of the world order established by the Treaty of Westphalia. Iran believes that it can intervene in the internal affairs of another country, that it can support terrorism by giving them missiles...”. Riyadh’s position in this regard seems to me essential for an eventual normalization of the relationship with Israel and a pertinent explanation of the fact that Netanyahu wants this very much. Mind you, we’re talking about an “official” normalization of relations between the two countries, because they have been quietly cooperating for years, and the strongman of Saudi Arabia, Prince Muhammad bin Salman, has publicly recognized Israel's right to exist; moreover, it is hard to believe that the Abraham accords could have been signed without the consultation and blessing of Riyadh.
Extremists in Netanyahu's cabinet may cause tensions with regional partners and the United States
The Netanyahu 6 government was barely sworn in when it found itself in the middle of massive protests and a scandal generated by the blackest sheep in the cabinet, the ultra-nationalist Itamar Ben Gvir. He is the man who was convicted of supporting a Jewish terrorist group and inciting racism in 2007, and now holds the portfolio of national security, which gives him control of the Israeli police force. The government had just been inaugurated and Itamar Ben Gvir, accompanied by a retinue in uniform, made a first visit nowhere else than to the Esplanade of the Mosques.
The Temple Mount is a place of high international political sensitivity, being at the center of numerous conflicts especially between Jews and Muslims. When Ariel Sharon visited this place 23 years ago, a new Intifada started the next day. The third holiest site of Islam and the holiest site of Judaism, under the name “Temple Mount”, the Esplanade of the Mosques is located in the Holy City of Jerusalem.
Gvir's visit to the Esplanade was criticized in harsh terms, internationally, and one of the critical voices was that of Saudi Arabia. It must not be forgotten that Riyadh sees itself not only as a leader of the Arab world, but also as one of the powers of the Muslim world, especially since it is the custodian of the two most important holy places of Islam, Mecca and Medina. However willing Muhammad bin Salman may be to cooperate with Israel, when it comes to sensitive religious issues or the Palestinian cause—and in the case of the Esplanade of the Mosques both are true—the Saudis' room for maneuver is limited because there are certain expectations from him.
Even Washington can't be very excited in the face of challenges like Gvir's visit to the Esplanade. It is true that the Biden administration has said that in its relationship with the Netanyahu government it will judge facts and not people, thus avoiding criticizing the formation of the most right-wing government in Israel's history. This does not mean, however, that there is a carte blanche for the new cabinet in Jerusalem. President Biden has stated he looks forward to working with Benjamin Netanyahu, but also stressed that Washington will oppose policies that undermine a two-state solution or contradict mutual interests and values.
Netanyahu does not have, at least for now, the option of turning to other political groups to replace the too radical voices in his coalition. The opposition parties have announced that they want nothing to do with the Likud leader. He will have to maintain the coalition - and, implicitly, give something to the radicals in exchange for their support - and, equally, give a real recital of politicking and diplomacy in the international arena. But with so many “black sheep” in the government, I find it hard to believe that the Benjamin Netanyahu 6 government is here to stay.
