Is China getting ready to tear from the Russian empire?

Is China getting ready to tear from the Russian empire?
© EPA-EFE/PAVEL BYRKIN / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN POOL   |   Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) toast at a reception in the Faceted Chamber of the Moscow Kremlin, Russia, 21 March 2023.

Russian-Chinese relations appear to be flourishing. But Beijing is looking for its own interests: it wants to attract the countries of Central Asia into its orbit and could even aim to recover Outer Manchuria.

The war in Ukraine, an economic gain for China

One of the great mysteries of the war in Ukraine is Beijing's policy in this belligerent context created by its ally, Russia. Peace offers, indirect aid through economic exchanges that rose 40 percent earlier this year, and that's because China has seized the moment and is buying cheap gas and oil from the Russians desperate to fuel their war machine. During Xi's last visit to Russia alone, in March this year, trade deals were signed that will bring trade to  more than 200 billion dollars per year  - a significant volume, even if it is several times smaller than the China-US or China-EU trade. Since the beginning of the war - and as Western companies began to withdraw from Russia and sanctions against Moscow increased - Chinese goods began to get more and more of the Russian market.

In February 2022, just two days before Putin ordered the army to invade Ukraine, Russia and China were declaring undying love through their presidents. Obviously, the whole world feared a simultaneous action by the two nuclear powers: one in Ukraine, the other in Taiwan. But China was in no hurry.

Just as China was not quick to back Putin's war in Ukraine with lethal weapons. Beijing is still working on the economy's safety net before taking that step, if at all. At the moment, the kind of Western sanctions imposed on Russia and those who support it are not something that China wants, as the country has big plans, which apparently do not include Russia. In fact, if we were to translate Beijing's latest actions, we could say that the rug is being pulled from under Putin's feet, and the post-Soviet “citadel’ is increasingly lured by another “Koba”: Xi Jinping.

China is making moves to replace Russia in Central Asia

The summit, organized in the middle of last month with great pomp by China in the famous city of XIAN, the heart of the ancient Silk Road, brought together five presidents from Central Asia. A summit that took place under the motto of “promotion, cooperation and inclusion”, proclaimed by President Xi Jinping.

The Beijing leader rolled out the red carpet for the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, giving them the honor before unveiling the grand plan for the development of Central Asia. China is putting money on the line for infrastructure development and trade development, but while at the same time assuming a leadership role in a region that has traditionally been in Russia's sphere of influence.

For China, the network of trade corridors of the five former Soviet republics represent ideal alternatives for transporting fuel, food and other goods in the event of obstacles to its traditional routes.

Why would the five Central Asian states be excited about China's offer? First of all, because money has no smell. In just two years, China invested 30 billion dollars in the region, which means that total Chinese investment increased from 40 billion in 2020 to 70 billion dollars at the end of last year. According to Beijing, the trade between China and Central Asia exceeded 70 billion dollars in 2022. In May this year, Xi Jinping revealed a development plan  for Central Asia, promising more than 3 billion dollars in investment and grants, investment in infrastructure – including gas pipelines – more trade and support for the development of a trans-Caspian transport corridor.

Behind these figures, however, there is also the indebtedness of countries such as Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan that borrowed under “advantageous” conditions from Beijing. At the level of 2020, it is estimated that approximately 45 percent of Kyrgyzstan's foreign debt is to China. It is clear that these numbers did not appear overnight, and China has been making inroads in the region for several years.

Beijing, the future security provider in Central Asia

In the first two decades after the collapse of the USSR in 1991, China used the  Shanghai Cooperation Organization – of which Russia is a member – to develop bilateral relations with Central Asian states.

Beijing's policy in Central Asia acquired new dimensions with the coming to power of Xi Jinping, who as early as 2013, in a speech given at the Nazarbayev University in Astana, where he had the Kazakh leader by his side, proposed that the countries of the region should join Beijing in building a Silk Road Economic Belt.  

Central Asia's engagement with China has been at the heart of Beijing's policy of increasing global assertiveness, which Chinese state media is calling the “New Era”.  And the new era has actually begun in Central Asia, where China is also building military facilities along the Tajik border with Afghanistan. Russia remains the region's leading arms supplier, but is unlikely to hold that position for much longer; China's share of Central Asian arms imports has grown from 1.5% 13 years ago to 13% today.

Last year's unrest in Kazakhstan and the Russian invasion of Ukraine further contributed to China's influence in the region. Beijing aided Kazakhstan then and expressed support for its independence and territorial integrity. All this, plus Xi's visit last year, suggest China's deep commitment to security, given that the former Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, last August called this country an “artificial state”.

Russia's security guarantees through the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) military alliance have become increasingly volatile as Moscow, engaged in what it calls the “special operation” in Ukraine, has weakened its military presence in Tajikistan sending one of the battalions stationed there to Ukraine; the unit was reportedly destroyed in fighting in April. Putin also relocated soldiers from the Russian base in Kant, Kyrgyzstan to Ukraine. And how can China's security promises, supported by piles of money, not be tempting when the Russian-led CSTO has proven ineffective in resolving  the violent territorial dispute between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan  or in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

It is not surprising that in this context, the meeting in Xian suddenly acquires another dimension in which Russia no longer has a place.

Could China ask Russia to return Outer Manchuria?

It is clear that the war in Ukraine is weakening Russia with each passing day, making it more dependent on Beijing, which thus gains more and more leverage in its relationship with Moscow. With the invasion of Ukraine, Putin may have opened a door for China to resolve some of itw own territorial issues , given that over a million square kilometers of what is now the Russian Far East, including the city of Vladivostok, belonged to China until after the mid XIX century; Beijing still calls the region “Outer Manchuria”. Putin, who claims he invaded Ukraine to reclaim Russian territory, is likely willing to make multiple concessions just in case Xi Jinping has similar claims on the Chinese territories annexed by the Russians.

Therefore, China has no reason to let go of Russia. Russia, not Putin, who in the current context is the “useful idiot” who can help Beijing achieve its goals regarding Taiwan, but also regarding, let's say, historical revanchism which is also to XI's liking.

When Xi Jinping met Putin in Moscow on the doorstep of the Kremlin he told him:

“Right now there are changes   the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years  and we are the ones driving these changes together”.

It seems that the words of Xi, who is probably already preparing for a post-Putin era, are starting to make sense.

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