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The Chinese authorities have relaxed anti-pandemic measures after a wave of protests over the zero-Covid policy. It is a rare concession from a regime that in recent years has tightened its grip on society and has not hesitated to use its repressive apparatus against the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong or the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. However, the step back seems to be a tactical one and there are no signs that it could be followed by a political relaxation.
Anti-pandemic restrictions prompt the Chinese to demand political freedoms
China's zero-Covid policy has brought the Chinese to the brink of despair. A different kind of desperation than the one 33 years ago that brought people to Tiananmen Square. Locked in their homes under the pretext of preventing the spread of the virus, now the Chinese say: ENOUGH!
Freshly re-elected as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping is faced with another first. “Down with Communism!” and “Xi, resign!” was heard at the spontaneous demonstrations triggered by a fire in a block of flats, sealed by authorities, according to the measures provided in the zero Covid policy. The protests, in which young people in particular participated, also spread like fire in a dry forest. “Down with Communism!”, “Xi, resign!” and “Freedom!” they shouted. In Tiananmen Square, in 1989, nothing like this was heard. Awoken from the nightmare called Covid, have the Chinese somehow realized that the zero-Covid policy is nothing more than an experiment to keep such a large nation under control? In the face of unprecedented demonstrations in Communist China, the government in Beijing has taken a quarter step back with the clear aim of releasing some of the tension built up during three years of restrictions. For example, in Beijing, people are now allowed to go into crowded places without proof of a Covid test. Is it enough? or is it just another strategy in search of a new security and population control apparatus?
The zero Covid policy was presented as a package of restrictive measures aimed at preventing the spread of the disease. And for that, an extensive guard and security apparatus was needed. This is the first hidden and already accomplished objective of the entire strategy. In order to rule for life, Xi Jinping needs “peace and harmony”, a wish that is difficult to fulfill in a China where people have tasted a bit of freedom, limited as it may be.
Xi, the most powerful and ambitious leader since Mao
Like his predecessors, Xi Jinping aspires to regain leadership in all three components of the communist state: party, military, state. In other words, to have absolute power. The first and second are checked. In March, at the 14th National People's Congress, Xi is expected to be re-elected president of the People's Republic of China.
In speeches and documents prepared for the party congress, Xi and his colleagues claimed credit for a string of political successes over the past 10 years and outlined an ambitious set of goals for the next five years. The initiatives launched over the past decade, along with the rhetoric presented at the congress, show that Xi's top priority has always been strengthening and centralizing the party's control over the government, military, economy and society. While the world tends to perceive China under Xi as confident, strong and bent on expanding its power and the Communist Party's influence beyond the borders of the People's Republic, across the globe if possible, party leaders feel as vulnerable and exposed.
Although Xi is China's most powerful and ambitious leader since Mao Zedong, with a regional and global profile, he remains insecure and domestically focused. In the work report of the 20th Party Congress , Xi warned the more than 2,000 delegates: “We must be more alert to potential dangers and be prepared to face worst-case scenarios...” . When Xi and his Politburo colleagues say they're worried about external threats, they're really saying they're worried about domestic threats — challenges that stem from societal problems, political dissent and unrest among China's vast population of more than a billion citizens.
Chinese Communist leaders fear their own people the most. Protesters in Tiananmen Square didn’t shout “Down with Communism!” or “Resign, Zemin!”, the name of the then president who, without hesitation, ordered the army to intervene brutally and put an end to pro-democracy rallies. How did Xi Jinping achieve this “performance”? Let's not forget that his two mandates were marked by purges carried out by the state apparatus, by lots of replacements among those who were not loyal or loyal enough to the new leader in Beijing. Moreover, Xi has carried out the most comprehensive and thorough reorganization of China's defense establishment in the past 3 decades. The result was an even more centralized military, with control and command functions brought together in the Central Army, as the People's Liberation Army was renamed, i.e. in the hands of its president - Xi.
The Zero-Covid policy has strengthened the centralization of power in China
Since late 2012, when he took power, Xi Jinping has also reorganized the Communist Party, re-involving it in controlling society down to the farthest of hamlets.
In his second term, Xi’s aim was to restructure the economy by reasserting central control over most sectors and re-emphasized the importance of state-owned enterprises. And this is planned to continue.
Repressive measures against civil society are a constant of his mandate. He is the one who forced all non-governmental organizations to register with the authorities, provide detailed information about their activities, and insisted that NGOs establish a kind of dependent relationship with the party. Through violent repression in the Xinjiang region, where Uyghur Muslims are seen as a disloyal population, or by torpedoing democracy in Hong Kong, Xi Jinping and the Party-State-Army have shown the Chinese and the world what the power in Beijing is capable of. The brutal suppression of dissent in Hong Kong cannot be forgotten too easily and too soon, nor can the deportation of Uyghur dissidents to concentration camps.
Although the former British colony should have been allowed a high degree of autonomy from Beijing under the existing devolution agreements and treaties, Hong Kong ended up being treated just like any other mainland jurisdiction. And this fact was mentioned by Xi Jinping at the 20th Party Congress as a victory by which “ethnic separatists, religious extremists and violent terrorists have been restrained”.
However, the control exercised by the Xi Jinping regime became evident with the outbreak of the pandemic. The fact that at the beginning of the year the army-state-party managed to lock down Shanghai, a metropolis of more than 20 million inhabitants, showed that Beijing is able to impose its will on society like no one can; with the exception, of course, of North Korea.
China's citizens can expect the continuation of the current policies and a greater centralization of power because, basically, at some point the zero-Covid policy will have to end. And what comes next?
