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If we were to listen to the qualified majority of earthlings (in Romania, for example, 65% of citizens believe that the pandemic was caused by the “global elites”) , the world is ruled by the global Occult, Darwin is a reptilian and his theory an anti-Christian conspiracy, the pandemic was intended to remove from the stage of life the elderly who are a fiscal burden for the World Government (but failed), and Russia is fighting the Western military industrial complex, the Nazis, the European gay and pedophile lobbying, the Freemasons and the militant Islam. It is the battle between Good and Evil, Sovereignists and Globalists, between Putin and Trump on one side, Gates and Soros on the other. And if those who believe in these conspiracy theories account for the majority, simple or qualified, then 2024 may indeed be a decisive year, the year of the “Great Reset.” Because they may decide by voting that liberal democracies have expired and that salvation can only come from those whom the rest of us call populists or sovereignist, authoritarian or far-right leaders, Eurosceptic or anti-European. And that would cause the ranks of states led by such leaders, where alternative truth is the norm, to swell.
It will be the most important and extensive election year in history: 76 states will hold elections; more than 4 billion citizens will vote. Eight of the ten most populous countries are among them: Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia and the United States of America. More than half of the earth’s population will go to the polls. Therefore, the majority, simple or qualified, will vote in this decisive year. But what is there to be reset?
From liberal democracy to “Potemkin” democracy
Democracies and autocracies, failed and successful states, liberal and illiberal democracies will take the test of the ballot box. In some, the vote will be free and fair, in others elections will be rigged and votes stolen, be it electronic or paper ballot. Some politicians will believe that democracy, with its limitations, is the best form of society that humanity has yet produced and will conform to its rules, others will invent oxymorons that political science will relegate to the index of the cabinet of curiosities – from “Potemkin” democracies and one-party democracies to theocratic democracies.
In Russia, the vote will be faked and Russians will contemplate the miracle of Putin's fifth descent as president, while in China the voters will just rest (the Party has already decided for them). In Iran, the Guardian Council decides who can run for parliament or the Council of Experts.
Elections in some states will matter globally, like, for example those in the US and India. Some countries will not have legislative elections, but they will have local elections, in which the citizens of the whole country will participate. This is the case of Turkey and Brazil. The 27 EU member states will go through a new democratic exercise to elect their European parliament. And finally, with four rounds of elections, Romania is the champion, as it suits it best.
Populism is inherent in democracy, but this time it could be fatal
In more or less consolidated democracies, politicians will try to do what they have always done, to hypnotize their electorate with promises. Populism is inherent in democracy, but it can sometimes be fatal to it. In states where democracy is fake, the results are mostly known beforehand and the electorate is spared the emotions of opening the ballot boxes.
But 2024 will be special for other reasons as well: regimes with democracies that cannot be classified in the political science taxonomy will, once again, export not only corruption and organized crime, but also disinformation, propaganda, fake news, kompromat, hate speech. They will put their armies of trolls, bots, hackers and mercenary journalists to work (more than 45 states have already been doing this for at least 10 years). China opened the Election Super Year before celebrating the Chinese New Year of the Wood Dragon by targeting Taiwan with a massive disinformation campaign. This time, the island’s democracy somehow managed to stand.
The story of voter manipulation by Cambridge Analytica in Brexit and the 2016 US election is so well-known that it has become boring. The psychometric profile of each voter, refined through the theft or illegal purchase of huge databases, and the delivery of personalized fake news are milestones passed. There are now better software on the market (AI automatic profiling or AI generated fake news) and state or non-state actors have invested in more refined tools (Team Jorge, Experian).
Elections are monitored by various domestic and international bodies, sometimes correctly, sometimes not. But who monitors, especially in emerging, young democracies, the hijacking of votes through disinformation? In consolidated democracies we have serious, well-documented case studies for fake news and disinformation campaigns launched in the US, France or Germany, in the context of Brexit or the referendum for the independence of Catalonia, for example. But we know close to nothing about the campaigns in Eastern Europe.
Electoral fraud is severely punished, it is an attack on democracy itself. Fraud through disinformation is still being studied by lawmakers. Paradoxically, fake news is assimilated to freedom of expression, so it is not illegal content (including in the European Digital Services Law). Manipulation of the electorate is allowed because the electorate allows it, knowingly or not.
The Great Reset could happen, even if the discerning electorate refuses to believe the conspiracy theory. The majority qualified by lies and propaganda could decide for the minority that still believes in the norms and values of liberal democracy.
The Super Election Year on Veridica
In 2024, we will talk here, on Veridica, about the fight between Good and Evil in the Election Super Year 2024. About the Good assumed by the majority through an informed vote and the Evil decided through a vote manipulated by conspiracy theories, fake news and disinformation.
We will describe Romania’s milestones in the last 35 years, the stakes, actors and false narratives, and we will reflect on the regional and global election mapping. We will explain why the votes in Slovakia or Iran also matter to us, Romanians. Why Russia turned from an autocracy into a dictatorship and the Russians’ votes no longer matter, why parliamentary elections in India, Belarus, Iran, Austria or Portugal, presidential elections in Azerbaijan, Lithuania or Georgia, local elections in Turkey or Poland matter regionally and globally. Finally, we will see why the elections in the USA can influence how the world will look like in the coming years and those in the Republic of Moldova can be decisive for its European future.
Who are the candidates and what are the stakes? What is the domestic and regional context in these states? What are the false narratives produced in previous electoral cycles? Is there a danger of confiscating the electorate through populism? What could be the consequences of vote diversion through fake news and disinformation campaigns? Which global or regional actor would gain from the hijacking of the vote, by destabilizing the respective state?
Veridica will be more present this year, with what it knows to do best: monitor the public space, identify fake news and narratives, critically deconstruct campaigns directed against democracies by delegitimizing the majority.
We will address, first of all, the public in Romania, but not only. We would be tempted to think that with the demise of Communism, the lie that fed it will no longer find admirers here in the East. That we are vaccinated against propaganda. However, new strains of the disinformation virus have appeared, spectral mutations, which could be fatal to democracy.
Usually, the battle between Good and Evil ends with the victory of Good. But do we know how to distinguish Good from Evil anymore?
