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Russia lost a battle in the hybrid war against Chișinău, but the election also revealed Moldova's vulnerabilities, the pro-Europeans' faulty communication and the need for the authorities to do more. Veridica’s staff and contributors analyze the result of the election.
Marian Voicu, journalist, Veridica publisher: Moscow took a swing at Moldova and missed
The Moldovan election night will be overshadowed by the American election night. Ready to party with their glasses full, Moldovans in the diaspora have once again overturned the result of the election. The euphoria of the EU accession referendum filled the air once more. Now it's Moscow's turn to taste defeat once more.
“They can only steal so many of our votes!”, people said before the second round of the presidential election. Popular in the Romanian diaspora during the 2014 and 2019 presidential election, the same slogan was heard again.
This year, Moscow decided to take a swing at the Republic of Moldova. Disinformation and propaganda were this year as well fatal to part of the electorate, although large-scale vote buying was a novelty. The Kremlin physically mobilized its electorate, carrying voters on buses and planes, bribing, intimidating, deceiving and misinforming people. And yet, it lost.
It's a big day for the Republic of Moldova, a big day for Maia Sandu.
But let's not get overexcited, Russia isn’t going anywhere. Starting tomorrow morning, the pro-European government must conclude this exceptional course by making a third step – next year's parliamentary election. Once again, the stake will be huge. The new Parliament could sidetrack Moldova’s European aspirations, if forces hostile to the president, Maia Sandu, win the election. The president will need to reinvent PAS, reshuffle the government and show that she has understood the message of people whose expectations have gone up in the past four years. And communication will be key.
The future for the Republic of Moldova has never looked brighter.
Cosmin Popa, historian, Veridica board: Maia Sandu and the Moldovan people have managed to mothball Russia’s onslaught in Europe
For the first time in history, the presidential election in the Republic of Moldova carried an important regional stake, and Maia Sandu's victory is one of the few good political items of news of late. Despite the fact that she is criticized for communication errors and some inefficiency in the act of governance, Maia Sandu and her supporters have shown that the Russian political offensive in Europe can and must be stopped. To consolidate the victory of the democratic forces, however, significant changes are needed, which depend only to a small extent on the Republic of Moldova.
First of all, and this is true also of Ukraine, a very clear pro-Western political baseline is needed, one which opposes the Russian thread of lies not only through general principles, but especially through very sound lines of action and declared deadlines.
Secondly, the entire democratic Europe, not just Moldova and Ukraine, must understand that de-Putinization is a priority that cannot be postponed. In the absence of a far-reaching working plan, designed to combat the Kremlin’s propaganda, corruption and disinformation networks, Maia Sandu's victory risks turning into a singular event. Although it lost this battle, the system that the Kremlin created in Moldova was not dispelled by the wave of relative democratic euphoria that followed the election. The fact that Alexandr Stoianoglo managed to grab the majority of votes in the constituencies on the territory of the Republic of Moldova shows that the Russian machine for rigging the elections through corruption and propaganda partially achieved its goal. Such a development will enable forces loyal to the Kremlin to strongly challenge the legitimacy of Maia Sandu, but this time its methods will be blunter.
Ahead of the upcoming parliamentary election in the Republic of Moldova, Moscow will do its utmost to oppose the reforms announced by president Maia Sandu, using the networks at its disposal to target the institutions and the society of this country. After failing to seize political power by hijacking the election, Moscow will contend itself, should no one stop it, with establishing a state of quasi-anarchy in Moldova, and nearly all the conditions have been reached to achieve this goal. A democratic victory should be celebrated, and this cannot be done only through public rhetoric and perspectives as bright as they are distant. The democratic and Western consensus in Moldova must be built, and uprooting the Russian system of corruption and propaganda as quickly as possible is the first and most important step of this enduring project.
Marin Gherman, journalist/political scientist, Veridica contributor: Russia has lost a battle in the hybrid war against Moldova, while Ukraine breathes a sigh of relief
Maia Sandu's victory in the second round of the presidential election in the Republic of Moldova is celebrated both in Bucharest and in Kyiv - in the capitals of the two and only neighboring states, which should matter more to Chișinău than the harmful influence of the Russian Federation. The struggle for a “less Putinist Russia” in the life of the former Soviet republic was not an easy one. The hybrid war and the external pressure were enormous, but the fragile Moldovan democracy seems to have withstood this difficult test.
This election was dominated by both the idea of a civilizational break with Russia, by moving closer to the EU, as well as the fear of war. Russian propaganda managed to convince some of the citizens of the Republic of Moldova that the vote they give to pro-Russian forces is a vote for peace, while the pro-European option is tantamount to war. “If you want to join the EU according to the Ukrainian model, Russia will come and demilitarize you” – this was by and large the false metanarrative that dominated the election year in the Republic of Moldova, but also in Georgia. Fortunately, although the Kremlin tried to instill in them the fear of war and of a decadent and immoral West, as suggested by propaganda, most Moldovans managed to see past these disinformation attempts.
Right now, Kyiv is breathing a sigh of relief after learning it won't have a pro-Russian state for a neighbor. The Ukrainian media sincerely celebrated Maia Sandu's victory, emphasizing she will have a partner by her side in the “geopolitical train” heading to Brussels.
It is also an important victory for Bucharest, which, in a super election year, is going to develop new strategies in its relations with Moldova, but also to support and help the Republic of Moldova more around the second great geopolitical test – the parliamentary election slated for the summer of 2025.
Cătălin Gomboș, journalist, editor-in-chief at Veridica: The election showed that the Russians have the ability to tip the scales in their favor
First and foremost, Maia Sandu's victory is a validation of the referendum regarding Moldova’s European integration, which passed with a difference of less than nine thousand votes. The majority vote grabbed by Maia Sandu, who is the main exponent of the pro-European current, is however somewhat more robust, reinforcing the result of the referendum.
Most votes came from the diaspora in Western countries (including Romania) where, once again, Moldovans managed to mobilize to tip the balance decisively. Almost 20% of total votes were cast abroad, and the overwhelming majority (82%, namely over 270,000 votes) favored the European option. Worth mentioning in this regard is also a benefit of the Romanian citizenship return policy, as the majority of Moldovans living in Europe, who favor EU after living on its territory and seeing first hand the values and prosperity the EY brings, have arrived in EU Member States owing to their Romanian/European citizenship.
On the territory of the Republic of Moldova, however, the Russians have shown they have the ability to tip the scales in their favor. In the referendum on the European Union integration of Moldova, the majority vote on the territory of the Republic was “no”, and in the presidential election, Alexandr Stoianoglo grabbed more votes than Maia Sandu. In both cases, Chișinău was the exception. Admittedly, the Republic of Moldova has always had a large segment of the population that favored the proximity to Russia (national minorities, Soviet nostalgics, Moldovenists). However, for many years now, a new majority took shape in Moldova, if not fully pro-European, then at least Europe-friendly. However, Russia managed to widen Moldova’s pro-Russian core by wining over parts of the electorate through disinformation and propaganda (it is difficult to quantify the exact amount) and by buying votes - at least 8% of the electorate, if we are to trust the payments identified by Chișinău authorities.
This means Moldova, a country that is aware it is currently the target of a hybrid war, must seriously reexamine its defense systems in the face of Russian hybrid operations. At the same time, however, the government in Chișinău must do something to reach out to that hard pro-Russia mass and to convince them that the European track is the right one for Moldova, one that is not worth sacrificing just to punish one government or the other for their missteps.
See here the first reactions of the Veridica.md team
