
Boyko Borissov’s GERB party expectedly topped the vote, but the elections left a bitter taste that political influence can be easily bought. They also underlined a worrying tendency for ethnicization of the vote.
Allegations of elections fraud
In the run-up to Bulgaria’s October the 27th elections, the 7th in three years, there was much talk about attempts to manipulate the vote. The elections ended with another pyrrhic win for Boyko Borissov’s centre-right conservative GERB, topping with 26.4 per cent of the popular vote, and a total amount of eight more or less distanced from one another parties in the upcoming 51st parliament.
“Yes, I’ll vote again for what it’s worth, but this exercise is becoming more and more absurd: the last time in June, a car parked near the queue, some well-built men in black t-shirts started talking intimidatingly to the people: you’re all voting for Revival, right? This is happening even here, in Paris”, confided a young Bulgarian voter, working abroad, little before the general elections on Sunday.
In the local media space, questions like how much a vote is bought for (from 50 to 250 euro, depending on the region), where in Bulgaria does this happen most, and which party is using state and local institutions for its benefit (fingers are especially being pointed at GERB), appear to be normalized with each round of the election cycle. Those that are trying to get people to head to the ballots despite the voting fatigue are often pointing out that the authentic vote should outnumber the manipulated one and that as turnout is low (38.9 per cent now, 34.4 in June), it’s easy for one to buy some seats in the parliament.
As elections were nearing, the authorities intensified their crack down on those attempting to commit electoral fraud, many of whom were arrested. On elections day, the Ministry of Interior reported a 70 per cent rise in vote rigging compared to the campaign in June. However, opposition parties such as We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria are claiming that all this barely reflects the magnitude of the problem. And the authorities don’t seem too willing to address the core of the problem, as police usually targets the people that are operating on the ground, not the politicians who order and benefit the fraud.
Manipulation of vulnerable communities
For years, allegations of electoral fraud have been made against GERB, a party that has been a main player in Bulgarian politics for a decade and a half, and against the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, which has been controlling most of the votes of Bulgaria’s Turkish minority since the 1990s.
The situation in 2024 became even more complex. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms – a liberal party on the outside, marred in various controversies through the years – unexpectedly split in two opposing camps over the summer, just as the party was sending mixed signals over supporting a GERB cabinet.
One faction, “MRF – New Beginning”, is attached to the MP and Magnitsky-act sanctioned tycoon Delyan Peevski, who was one of the few politicians of Bulgarian descent in the original MRF party and a major figure in Bulgarian politics over the past decade. For a year or so, Peevski has been trying to rebrand himself as a reformist who shares Western values.
The second faction, the “Alliance for Rights and Freedoms,” gathers members loyal to the party’s founder, Ahmed Dogan, one of the most recognisable and even mythologised personalities after the fall of Communism in 1989. Of the two, Peevski’s wing was more prone to cling to power through GERB.
With minimal campaigning, both parties comfortably secured places in the parliament – “MRF – New Beginning” took 11.5 per cent (significantly more than any polling had predicted before the elections), while ARF got 6.8 per cent. But what does this mean for the “Turkish” vote?
According to data from Gallup International on Monday, 52 per cent of the votes from the Turkish diaspora went to Ahmed Dogan’s party, meaning that the voters of the original MRF have recognised their first leader as the one who is leading the authentic continuation of the party. Peevski’s MRF - New Beginning was supported by 25% of the Turkish diaspora. MRF - New Beginning is however winning the vote of the Roma community in Sofia, with votes in the two major Roma neighborhoods in divided between this party and GERB.
Many in Bulgaria have decried for years alleged campaign and elections irregularities. As the political stalemate settled in a few years ago, the international community started to take note too.
According to the 2022 Freedom Index report, there are “alleged instances of voter intimidation and vote-buying by various groups, including by the Movement for Rights and Freedoms party, were reported; such irregularities are persistent in economically and socially vulnerable communities.”
The 2024 report makes a point that “the elections were marred by an extremely high number of invalid paper ballots—which machine voting could have prevented, independent observers said—and allegations of electoral fraud”.
“People in smaller communities, including the Roma, are frequently pressured to vote for the party that controls the city council or has appointed the mayor, or for the party favored by the biggest employers in the area (a phenomenon known as a “controlled” or “corporate” vote)”, the report notes. “Prominent businessmen dominate major political parties and exert influence over party platforms and policy decisions, and some are also able to advance their agenda through media holdings. The problem of business influence in politics is exacerbated by a lack of transparency in campaign finance laws.”
The way forward may mean a democratic backsliding for Bulgaria
Bulgaria’s general election on October 27 passed with a level of international attention that was little below the coverage around the polls in Moldova and Georgia, both representative of the geopolitical and ideological clashes and tension in respective countries.
While similar battles can be observed in Bulgaria, the country’s fragile democracy has morphed into an almost perfect kleptocracy where right or left, pro-Brussels or pro-Moscow positioning hold a little weight.
This dynamic essentially changes the philosophy of voting: people are not supporting ideas, causes or values, but are often voting against, whether that would be against the regressive pro-Russia politics of Revival (or vice-versa, against the liberal or pro-EU vision of others) or against the votes that are up for sell. During the campaign, all parties in all spectrums were focused on preserving, rather than expanding their electoral base.
In case Borissov’s GERB finally decides to get closer to Peevski’s MRF-New Beginning after much back and forth between the leaders in recent years, this would also mean a merging of the methods of the two parties on securing votes and power. Then Bulgaria will have a ruling coalition that would appear as pro-West to Brussels, but would likely exert unprecedented pressure on all institutions at home.