The Kremlin has prepared an advance justification for its arms supplies to criminal groups, predictably shifting the blame onto the West and Ukraine.
One of the main narratives pushed by Kremlin propaganda regarding military assistance to Ukraine is the claim that weapons supplied to Kyiv are not properly controlled and consequently end up in the hands of terrorist groups and organised crime networks around the world. Such claims are promoted primarily in NATO member states in an effort to undermine trust in Ukraine. Recently, however, Russian officials have gone even further, claiming that “the intelligence service of one of the Western countries, in coordination with its Ukrainian henchmen, intends to stage yet another anti-Russian spectacle” — allegedly in an attempt to blame Russia for illegal arms trafficking:
“There are plans to accuse Russia of illegally supplying weapons to drug cartels and other organised crime groups in Venezuela, Colombia, and Mexico. To this end, Russian-made weapons captured by the enemy during the special military operation are already being brought into these countries. At the same time, fake audio and video materials are being prepared to “confirm” the alleged transfer of weapons by Russians to Latin Americans through intermediaries. For greater credibility, this “body of evidence” is supposedly to be backed up by forged documents indicating the alleged involvement of Russian Armed Forces personnel in the scheme”.
All of this should be interpreted in precisely the opposite way: the Kremlin is pre-emptively attempting to absolve itself of responsibility for large-scale arms shipments to drug cartels in Latin America, as well as to other criminal and terrorist groups. It appears that more such schemes may become public in the near future, potentially raising entirely legitimate questions to Moscow in several capitals across the Western Hemisphere. This is particularly significant given the investigations already underway in the United States into alleged Russian arms supplies to Mexican drug cartels.
Against this backdrop, the Kremlin’s claims about its “friendly relations with the governments of these states” — the very countries where those cartels operate — look especially cynical. Yet there is nothing particularly surprising about this: in Africa, Moscow employs essentially the same strategy, supplying weapons, goods, mercenaries, and military expertise to opposing sides. This allows Russia to maximise its influence over regional developments and hedge against an unexpected turn of events in which one of the sides is defeated. The main objective is to maintain influence over the process and extract maximum profit from the situation, regardless of any principles or rules.
