Why is Serbia seemingly trying to court Estonia?

As Serbia’s relationship with the EU are tensed by a range of issue, including support for Russia, Belgrade is opening towards Estonia, one of Europe’s harshest Russia critics.

Serbia is courting Estonia, but its friendship with Russia is not helping

The appointment of former Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs theoretically should increase Estonia's influence on the international stage. This is partly what high-ranking representatives of European countries, who want to strengthen ties with the EU, have in mind.

In mid-September, Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Đurić visited Estonia on an official visit – the first in the last 14 years. "Thus, Serbia is refreshing the historically stable and friendly Serbian-Estonian relations. My primary goal is to revitalize existing relationships and find new friends around the world, especially in the Baltic region," he said in an interview with Delfi.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, who invited him, commented on the visit's outcome much more harshly and concretely on social media: “I welcomed Marko Đurić and emphasized that it's unacceptable to shake hands with a war criminal who is trying to undermine the security of Europe and Ukraine's sovereignty; EU candidate Serbia is expected to align with The Common Foreign and Security Policy; I support dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo towards peace.”

The war criminal Margus Tsahkna was talking about was Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who had recently received in Moscow two other Serbian officials, Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin and Minister without Portfolio Nenad Popović. During their meeting, Vulin had stated that Serbia is a strategic partner of Russia and will never impose sanctions against it, despite pressure from Western countries.

"The meeting with my Serbian colleague Marko Đurić in Tallinn provided a good opportunity to explain Estonia's position on Russian aggression in detail," the Estonian Foreign Minister told Veridica, saying that he also urged Serbia to adhere to anti-Russian sanctions. "I added that Russia's goal is to destroy Ukraine, which is fighting for us and instead of us. Russia will not stop in Ukraine, and therefore Ukraine's victory is an existential issue for us, and there can be no flexibility in dealing with Russia," he explained. At the same time, Tsahkna emphasized that Estonia consistently supports the integration of Western Balkan countries into the EU and is ready to share its experience.

Serbs’ support for EU integration was undermined by European Kosovo policies

While Vulin and Popović, who are considered pro-Russian and both are under U.S. sanctions, personally have little to lose in the West, Serbia's close relations with an aggressor state could have painful consequences. During his visit to Estonia, Marko Đurić emphasized that the EU is Serbia's number one economic partner in all respects, and Serbia has been striving to join the EU for over twenty years.

However, as noted by Euronews Serbia journalist Ljubiša Ivanović, over the years, the attitude of Serbs towards EU membership has changed significantly. “6-7 years after the fall of Milosevic's regime, when Serbia finally opened to Europe and the world, enthusiasm in Serbia was very, very high. Over 80% of citizens were not only pro-European, but also pro-NATO”, Ivanović recalls.

However, several serious obstacles hindered joining these organizations. The euro-integration process was delayed for five years due to Montenegro's separation, the legacy of the civil war played a role, as did the extradition of Milosevic and the Hague Tribunal. Finally, Kosovo's independence was a significant blow to Serbs.

“From 2001 until 2008, all European Union officials and not only them, all officials from the largest European countries like France, Germany, the United Kingdom at the time, Italy, Spain, and others were telling us that the Kosovo issue is not an issue of European integration, that these two issues are completely separate, and that Serbia needed to cooperate with the international community to find a solution to Kosovo's status. Then, in 2008, Kosovo declared independence”, Ivanović said.

Most European countries, except for Spain, Romania, Cyprus, Greece, and Slovakia (who had their reasons for not supporting separatism), recognized Kosovo's independence. “And that was approximately the point when the enthusiasm for EU integration in Serbia started to fall a little. Still, at that time, the overall majority of citizens were pro-EU,” explains the Serbian journalist. However, the enthusiasm waned even further after Kosovo's independence was recognized by the United Nations International Court of Justice.

Serbia – Russia relationship: it’s complicated

As for relations with Russia, Ivanović notes that despite the Russian stereotype of "brother Serbs," their relations have also seen ups and downs. "Serbia had good relations with Russia historically, but Serbia also had historically really bad relations with Russia," summarizes Ivanović. "Russia didn't trust us because we used to say we were the West in the East and the East in the West. Some kind of a bridge". He also recalls the military treaty Yugoslavia once signed with Greece and Turkey, effectively aligning with NATO countries: "Against whom exactly? The answer is quite clear because Soviet troops were all over the border, ready to invade, like in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. The only thing that saved us then was Harry Truman, the U.S. President, with the 6th Fleet in the Adriatic Sea", says the Serbian journalist.

The relations between Serbia and Russia remain ambiguous now: for obvious reasons, Serbia has not recognized Crimea's annexation, voted to suspend Russia's membership in the UN Human Rights Council, condemned the aggression in Ukraine in 2022, but refused to impose anti-Russian sanctions.

“The question of sanctions, in our case, is a question of gesture. Even if we don't impose sanctions on Russia, we practically don't trade — just a bit of gas, and that's about it. But Germany is still buying Russian gas and some other countries as well", Ivanović explains. According to him, there is also another reason: in the 90s, Serbia was under sanctions itself, and the older generation remembers these times well: “I've been there. I've lived through that. It was hell. And I'm not the one to blame. The international community punished everyone except for the close circle of people who were never even touched by the sanctions; they had their whiskey, Mercedes, everything. So Milosevic and his company did quite well during the United Nations Resolution 757 embargo, but we were struggling heavily. If you ask Serbian people if they think sanctions are a solution to political disputes, the overall majority will say no”.

Serbia is trying to open new doors in the EU. The Europeans can’t afford to slam them in Belgrade’s face

All this does not make Serbian-Estonian relations easier. And according to Ivanović, the Serbian political establishment expects that Kaja Kallas, as head of European diplomacy, will take a tough stance towards Serbia due to its relations with Russia.

At the same time, in Ivanović’s opinion, Serbia is obviously not playing the European Commission card because real decisions are made in Berlin, Paris, and not in Tallinn or even Brussels. Although this does not negate the need to seek any allies in Europe: “I think that Marko Đurić is trying to at least open some new doors, and Estonia, as the country sending the new EU chief diplomat, is important in that sense."

However, Europe also needs Serbian support — not only for political and military reasons. In July, the EU signed an agreement to supply lithium from Serbia, which in the future should reduce Western countries' dependence on this strategic raw material. A lithium mine near Gornje Nedeljice is being developed by the British-Australian corporation Rio Tinto. The development is scheduled to begin in 2028, but massive protests are already taking place. At the same time, Serbian ministers accused their opposition of preparing a coup, citing information received from Russian intelligence services. Russian media eagerly picked up the theme of "the active involvement of external forces in artificially inflating tensions" in Serbia. The struggle for this country continues.