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The candidacy of President Iohannis for the post of Secretary General of NATO caused a stir in Romania, and not only. In Europe in general, a new name opposing the Dutch Mark Rutte, quasi-approved by the Western powers to succeed Jens Stoltenberg, is an unusual situation. Does Iohannis really hope to become the head of NATO? Or, if not, what can he gain from such a candidacy? And above all: what significance does it have for Romania?
Iohannis's candidacy, from rumors and media obsession to the East's intention to rethink the NATO strategy
The fact that the current president of Romania aims for an important position in one of the global institutions is not secret – on the contrary, it became a media obsession. In the last year, more or less fancy scenarios have appeared in the press, starting with the fact that Iohannis was to be nominated as a candidate of the EPP for the position of High Representative of the EU (briefly put, such a candidate status does not exist). There followed the story of the "takeover of power" in the European Council, after the withdrawal of Charles Michel from the position of president, to participate in the elections in Belgium (Charles Michel is still president of the Council). And even a speculation about a "coup" planned in Brussels against Ursula von der Leyen (the noise made by Cristian Terheș in the Berlaymont round is probably more threatening than such a horrible plot).
It is hard to say who put these scenarios into circulation and to what extent they are related to Cotroceni. By all means, this time Iohannis said it himself , in an official context. He immediately promoted his candidacy on Politico.eu , the website most visited by the Brussels “Eurobubble”. The first conclusion we can draw is that we are talking about more than a naive and glorious dream. But what exactly prompted Iohannis to make such a move? Is there a solid basis for his candidacy?
The media recalled, and rightly so, an episode from 2023 that may give us an indication of how things played out. Asked how he would react if he was proposed to replace Jens Stoltenberg, Iohannis said then: "If such a proposal were made to me, I would evaluate it very seriously and make a public statement." We can't be sure that candidate status was "proposed" to him, because the idea of the proposal came from the question, but the "public statement" happened, and the story clearly suggest a concerted action, of a "coalition" behind the president of Romania. He would not have publicly assumed a candidacy if he did not have a certain kind of support. And the supporters have started to show , in other words, to publicly assume their stand: Turkey, Hungary, Bulgaria. At first glance, it looks like a motley crew. But is it, really?
The Dutch Mark Rutte, already known as a candidate when Klaus Iohannis announced his intention, enjoys (until proven otherwise) the support of 17 of the 32 NATO countries, including the USA-France-Germany-Great Britain “quad”. In the hallways of the futuristic and huge NATO headquarters in Haren, Brussels, the atmosphere reads that the succession of Jens Stoltenberg, whose mandate was extended anyway, must be ensured quickly, especially given the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. This current of thought sees in the change of the NATO leader something close to a formality.
But there is also a more reflexive attitude, which boils down to a known thing: the role and strategy of the North Atlantic Alliance must be redefined for two big, well-known reasons: again, the War in Ukraine and, in addition, the involvement of the US in NATO, which depends on the outcome of this year's US presidential election. If Trump wins, his anti-NATO statements are famous, as are his unpredictability and fascination with dictators.
The change of leader would be, for NATO, an opportunity for redefinition. And the redefinition is catalyzed by a kind of moral pressure that comes, naturally, from the proximity of the conflict in which the Western world is involved today as a supporter: from Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic States. The fact that they repeatedly warned about the threat posed by Russia, before February 24, 2022, without being heeded by the Western partners, is known. This gives the East - and implicitly Romania and President Iohannis - a moral high ground that is reflected in the European and transatlantic political balance.
“The North-East coalition” behind Iohannis
All this considered, beyond the three countries that have explicitly declared their support for President Iohannis, one begins to guess an "Eastern coalition" behind him, at least in terms of current of thought or political Zeitgeist, if not in terms of behind the scenes negotiations. And the coalition has found a supporter, both unexpected (geographically) and predictable (ideologically): Latvia. The Baltic country's foreign minister, Krišjānis Kariņš, is calling for a less formal and more reflective appointment process . The "Eastern coalition" is, as it should be in the historical sense, a "North-Eastern" one.
Kariņš criticized the system of appointing the Secretary General, i.e. the so-called "Dean's Coffee", in which the senior of the NATO ambassadors summons his counterparts from the Alliance member countries to an informal meeting, where the new leader is decided by consensus. The suggestion is that informal processes run the risk of becoming occult (Rutte's appearance out of nowhere in pole position, compared to Iohannis' public announcement) and too expeditious at certain times.
But the real surprise comes from a completely different place: America. Asked what she thinks about Iohannis' candidacy to NATO, Kathleen Kavalec, the US Ambassador to Bucharest , stated on March 13: "Romania is a key ally and partner throughout this terrible war at our borders, and we have the highest respect for President Iohannis". Of course, this is neither an explicit endorsement, nor an official statement - just an answer to a question. But its diplomatic vagueness includes clear positive overtones regarding Iohannis. And the one who gave it is the most senior ambassador that the USA has had in Bucharest. A lesser-known fact in Romania, Kathleen Kavalec takes over from a long line of "political ambassadors," meaning appointed for their campaign services, and has a distinguished Department of State resume as a career diplomat with stints in Ukraine and Russia. Her appointment took place, strategically, on December 20, 2022, after the outbreak of the War in Ukraine, and Romania has not had a diplomat of such caliber in Bucharest since Michael Guest, the ambassador also strategically sent here in the early 2000s, immediately after Putin’s election as a president, with the task of taking Romania into NATO.
Of course, Kathleen Kavalec's statement is not equivalent to the support offered by the USA in the "quad" or at the "Dean's Coffee" table. But it intimately illustrates the thinking of the political establishment in Washington. Ultimately, at least during the Biden administration, it needs a strong NATO, and Rutte is a candidate who, as prime minister, did not even fulfill the requirement to allocate 2% of the Dutch budget to NATO. All in all, the important thing is simply that the ambassador spoke out, and she did it on behalf of the USA.
What will Johannis win if he does not win? Political “mojo”
If we go back to Brussels, the NATO sources we consulted say that President Iohannis "has no chance". In principle, there is a path to victory, as there is a theoretical possibility that Mark Rutte will become prime minister again in the Netherlands after Geert Wilders, the right-wing extremist who won the election, gave up the leadership of the government, which he is unable to form. The potential disappearance of Rutte from the "Dean's Coffee" table means resuming the process, but starting from slightly different political dates. However, it is very difficult to imagine that Iohannis could manage to obtain a consensus in his favor, although he has in his camp the Nemesis of any consensus in Europe, Viktor Orbán, who was recently whining about Rutte “hating him”. Rather, Iohannis could block a consensus in favor of Rutte.
Seen this way, his candidacy no longer seems dreamy or frivolous. On the website of the well-known British think tank RUSI, Oana Lungescu wrote last November: "Nothing would be worse than turning the top NATO post into a product of negotiations taking place late at night, at a table in the EU". Little known in Romania, Oana Lungescu was until last year, for many years, the so-called "principal spokesperson" for NATO, so we are dealing with an opinion if not official, at least very well informed about the internal discussions in NATO and still attentive to the interests of the institution of which the former spokesperson was a part for so long.
One way or another, in his campaign for NATO, President Iohannis embarked on something other than a bizarre, Eastern political adventure. The personal image benefits are clear. In addition to The Guardian or Politico, which I mentioned, his name also appears in the Voice of America , Associated Press, Bloomberg and in other places. And it should be noted that in Europe there are also honorable defeats. A recent famous example is Margrethe Vestager's unsuccessful bid to head the European Investment Bank, which she lost to Spain's Nadia Calviño. The "Danish queen of competition" returned to the position and duties of vice-president of the European Commission, without a fuss, but also without damage to her image or political quota. Repeatedly worded by the media, the idea that Iohannis is keeping his name in circulation – or building up his political mojo, as one would say in Eurospeak – for another high, global office is credible.
On February 7, in Brussels, Klaus Iohannis was preparing to give a speech in the European Parliament. Around the "Eurobubble", jokes popped out about the fact that the President of Romania could appear before Parliament in a ski outfit: "Let's look at his feet, his boots will tell!" But Iohannis did not come wearing ski boots; he came with a very good speech , all the more surprising since such speeches are not his specialty. Applauded in the European Parliament, the speech was not noticed in Romania, much too interested in Iohannis’s eventual candidacy for a high office and too little willing to recognize any merit of a president who has not been very popular in recent years. The very fact that Iohannis prepared his speech so well, however, says something about the seriousness of his campaign for NATO or some other high office.
Romania’s political benefits: communication channels, diplomatic affinities
Politicians sacrifice themselves for their own country very rarely and only in life or death situations. Rather, "good" politicians are those who derive their personal benefits from actions that correspond to the public interest. If all the above represent points won by Klaus Iohannis, they are also positive for Romania. Which has a leader capable of operating on behalf of a multinational political entente and explicitly and credibly expressing his interest in a high office. All the setting we are trying to identify means opening channels of communication, high level political relations, creating diplomatic affinities. Again, Klaus Iohannis’ personal benefits overlap those of the country.
After the announcement of the candidacy, even the former president Traian Băsescu came out of his political torpor with a sort of ironic endorsement for the man he used to call the "GRIVCO premier": "Personally, I would say, perhaps a little ironically, that I never believed that there would be a contest for the position of Secretary General of NATO, but it seems that is happening, and Mr. Iohannis signed up for this competition". It is worth noting the choice of the word contest, which suggests that the "Dean's Coffee" table is not closed. And it is open not necessarily to people, but to countries. Wondering whether or not Klaus Iohannis will get the headship of NATO is interesting but limiting. The problem is whether Romania will get it or not. Ultimately, the country matters more than the man in such decisions.
In entirely different terms, stakes like the number one position in NATO become important, gain weight, to the extent that they highlight the existence of a conflict of ideas or a new Zeitgeist. In one way or another, on his own initiative or at the suggestion of others, the Romanian candidate settled in such a current of opinion, related to the moral superiority of the East in its attitude towards Russia, which will bring political benefits to the country. It turns out that ideas and ideals matter. But we have yet to see to what extent the "coalition" behind him proves to be an extensive and operational one, how "serious" it is, because we can only detect its symptoms. Creating a deadlock for the NATO chief position may also become bad news at some point if it drags on during a war with stakes for NATO, which has explicitly expressed its support for Ukraine and is supporting it politically, but also through arms and ammunition deliveries made by member states or by training Ukrainian soldiers.
Apart from that, beyond Romania’s external image and external geopolitical weight, it is necessary to take a bit of a look at Romania’s image in Romania, after the candidacy announcement. On social media, the whole story generated at least one successful and kinda friendly meme about Klaus Iohannis: "Dude, what country is this, if even the president wants to leave and work abroad?" In fact, the European Union or NATO are no longer the distant "abroad" that we perceive from within the country. Ours by right, in the institutional sense, they begin to get closer to us in fact. Or, in other words, if we think that Romania and not the man may get the leadership of NATO, it means that we all went to work abroad and we perceive the abroad as being ours.
Until now, the Secretary General of NATO was more of a secretary than a general, and the office was rather representative, with a more or less administrative role. Now, for obvious reasons, something closer to a general is being sought. Iohannis has been once again cast in an unlikely role for him. But we shouldn’t forget that it is not the first time that this is happening to him.
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