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Bulgaria showed signs of further democratic regression after its Parliament passed a law, on August 7, which prohibits “propaganda” for “ideas and views connected to nontraditional sexual orientation or to gender-identifying different from the biological” in schools. This development has been followed by calls for a “foreign agents” law to further limit liberal and critical voices.
Momentum for Bulgaria’s far-right
The engine behind the two laws was the far-right pro-Russian Revival party, but they gained traction after winning support from some of the pro-Western parties that made an unexpected populist gamble.
The anti-LGBTQ+ law was voted by MPs from Revival and the Bulgarian Socialist Party, but also by the pro-EU GERB, which is the biggest party in the parliament, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, and the increasingly nationalist There’s Such a People who even demanded that access to scientific resources connected to the topic of gender must be limited.
Support also came from independent MP’s previously associated with the now dissolved parliamentary group of Greatness – a party which would probably be remembered as political one-hit wonders and made its way to the parliament in June. Greatness is the political extension of a circle of shareholders of the tourist site called Historical Park near Varna, made to glorify Bulgaria’s history. The whole project has been repeatedly investigated as a Ponzi and has been connected with paramilitary training. On August 12, the National Security State Agency issued a report in which it described the Historical Park site as a financial fraud costing 35 million euro and without much specifics, mentioned that business and party founder Ivelin Mihaylov had connections with Russia’s Night Wolves.
While members of reformist duo We Continue the Change or Democratic Bulgaria voted against or abstained, the alliance was criticized for not being more active on the topic.
The turn of events is an unprecedented validation for Revival, a party which, from a marginal presence, gained wider support after it adopted anti-vaxx positions during the COVID-19 pandemic, entered the parliament, remained hardline over Ukraine and is increasingly aggressive in its vocabulary and campaign tactics.
After the adoption of the anti-LGBTQ+ amendment, Revival started openly talking about passing another Russian-styled law: the “foreign agents” bill which would see sanctions against anyone working with funds outside of the state or the EU. Attempts for such a law were made in 2022. Internationally, it most recently made headlines around the adoption in Georgia in late 2023, followed by protests.
The development unleashed widespread outrage, with protests against the amendment taking place in Sofia and Varna, as well as in Berlin, London and the Hague and organised by local immigrant communities.
Slogans such as the ironic “Spasibo, GERB” and the alarmist “Bulgaria is not Russia” were among the popular statements during the demonstrations in Sofia, sometimes held in close proximity to crowds gathering in favor of the law.
In recent days, teachers and academics who opposed the LGBTQ law have been harassed and threatened online by Telegram and Facebook groups connected to Revival, some motivating parents to take actions against the teachers in opposition.
The conservative reinvention of GERB
While GERB’s support of the LGBTQ+ law and newfound allegiance to Revival came as a surprise, this move is not exactly unexpected and is more representative for the complex parliament dynamics rather than a sudden geopolitical shift.
GERB are prone to risky populist moves for quick gains: between 2017-2021, Borissov governed in a coalition with now defunct far-right alliance United Patriots and in 2020, amid a wave of anti-establishment protests, GERB imposed a veto on the EU ascension of North Macedonia, reigniting historical debates and poisoning the diplomatic relations between the two countries for the near future.
In 2023 GERB seemed to move towards a firmly pro-EU stance, in line with their archrivals/former coalition partners from We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria. However, as that alliance crumbled, GERB turned to its most conservative based, in what seems to be an attempt to ride the right wing surge in the country.
Through the disputes around the LGBTQ+amendment, GERB and Revival essentially tested a potential parliament majority as after the coming elections in October, GERB will have almost no good moves for a coalition: all bridges back to We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria seems to be burned, while loyal partners Movement for Rights and Freedoms have split in two camps around the sudden conflict between party’s key leaders.
As other parties appear disoriented and marred in internal conflicts, for Revival and GERB the controversial move also kick-started their current campaigns and outlines a strong narrative amid the expected low voter interest (34.41 per cent voted in June 2024, compared to 50.61 per cent in April 2021 at the beginning of Bulgaria’s logjam).
Weary Bulgarians will head to the polls for new general elections – the seventh in just three years – on October 27.
However, the current developments are maybe a bit too much for Bulgaria’s predominantly, even if divided, pro-EU society. According to a survey by Alpha Research, made available on August 20 and done in collaboration with Sofia’s Human and Social Studies Foundation, there’s a rising number in people seeing Bulgaria potentially distancing itself or leaving the EU as a strongly negative scenario: 30.9 per cent in 2024 in comparison to 22.2 per cent in 2023.
“There’s a point in which the anti-liberal propaganda is becoming counterproductive for its own goals”, the survey concludes.
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