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Volodymyr Zelsnky visit to Sofia may be a boost for the pro-Western ruling coalition, which is under pressure from pro-Russian parties and President Rumen Radev. The coalition’s task is not easy: it is made up of rivals who agreed to a truce rather an alliance, and it’s trying to carve out Bulgaria’s near future after a two-year deadlock. A failure would most likely benefit the country’s pro-Russia parties and President Radev, who appears to be hungry for more power. Of course, Zelensky didn’t go to Sofia to solve political problems: Ukraine needs Bulgaria’s support for its NATO bid and, more pressingly, the country’s weapons and ammunition, which is compatible with Ukraine’s own Soviet-era type of military equipment.
Bulgaria’s pro-Western government seems determined to help Ukraine and fight Russian meddling in Sofia’s affairs
Zelensky’s arrival was not a given: this was his 13th visit abroad since the beginning of the war, a rare appearance in the Balkans, and it came without an official motive.
After arriving little after 12 with a private flight from Chișinău and amid increased security in downtown Sofia, Zelensky met with Bulgaria’s Prime Minister, Nickolay Denkov of We Continue the Change, and Deputy Prime Minister Mariya Gabriel of GERB, representing Bulgaria’s uneasy coalition of opposing forces GERB / United Democratic Forces and reformists We Continue the Change / Democratic Bulgaria. Zelensky’s visit especially brought increased attention on Denkov, a rather unknown and unpopular figure in Bulgaria (an Alpha Research survey from June 29th put his rating at 26 per cent of approval).
After assuming office on June 6, Denkov immediately prioritised Bulgaria’s Eurozone and Schengen entrance. In light of Zelensky’s arrival, the prime minister said that a lustration of Russian informants from Bulgaria’s intelligence and security services is forthcoming. Also, in a recent exchange with Politico, published on July 5, Denkov has said that Bulgaria has long kept their “eyes wide shut” to Russian meddling.
The current ruling coalition had also signalled its intention to rein in the Russian influence by its choice for a Minister of Defence. It appointed Todor Tagarev, a military expert, and an outspoken critic of Russia’s meddling in Bulgaria. He has held the same position in 2013 and he’s also a former Director of the Centre for Security and Defence management at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences.
Through the years, Bulgaria’s Ministry of Defence has been associated with being infiltrated with people serving Moscow’s interests. Ever since the Communist regime fell in 1989, the Ministry has been seen as a vulnerability to Bulgaria’s security. The magnitude of the Russian influence has been a topic of debates and speculations. In March 2021, for instance, three officials from the Ministry were detained on suspicion of spying for Russia. That’s proof of direct involvement with Russia. The position towards Ukraine of those at the helm of the ministry, even after the spying scandal, is also relevant. Stefan Yanev, a former presidential military advisor, was a defence minister in Petkov’s cabinet who was ousted in early 2022 after calling the war a “special military operation”. Yanev’s successor, former NATO envoy Dragomir Zakov, opposed giving Ukraine any military aid. After Zakov, interim minister Dimitar Stoyanov also opposed sending heavy military equipment.
Despite the parliament voting to finally send aid last November, nothing happened until Todor Tagarev came at the helm of the Ministry of Defence; the process is just being started. Tagarev is looking beyond helping Ukraine – he also wants to better protect Bulgaria from Russian influence. In a recent interview, Tagarev he pointed to disinformation as a key problem that remains unsolved.
“Unfortunately, Russia has managed to successfully polarise our society by driving a wedge between these two huge groups”, Tagarev told Capital Weekly newspaper in an interview, published on Friday, likely meaning the liberal pro-EU and the conservative pro-Moscow minded voters.
“We don’t have any detailed analysis from our security agencies on this matter yet but it’s all clearly visible – the Bulgarian society is divided and this becomes more and more apparent. Propaganda uses every opportunity to push certain parts of the society against each other - we saw this with COVID-19, around other issues and right now - we’re seeing the same mechanisms played out during the war. Somehow “they” manage to reach a large part of our fellow citizens who wilfully accept the Russian thesis. It's not clear exactly what techniques they use - I’m aware of some of them, but it's clearly done very professionally.”
In the interview Tagarev also directly refers some key moments in the Bulgaria - Russia relations from 2022 – such as Russia ambassador in Bulgaria Eleonora Mitrofanova’s dismissive remarks to then Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, and the sudden halt of Gazprom deliveries to Bulgaria in April 2022, seen as an attempt to force Sofia to yield to Kremlin’s demands. (More on how Bulgaria appeared to distance itself from Moscow in some moments, then come closer in others depending on the dynamics in the parliament in this Veridica analysis from July last year).
The pro-Russians remained defiant
All parliamentary parties except leftist leaders Bulgarian Socialist Party and far-righters Revival, both pro-Kremlin, adopted a declaration in support of Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO, signed by Denkov and Zelensky. Also on Thursday, the Parliament voted to sell the Soviet-era equipment of the Belene power plant, which has been under construction since the 80’s and is not expected to become operational, to Ukraine.
BSP and Revival were highly critical of Zelensky’s visit (with Revival leader Kostadin Kostadinov stating that “we have enough fascists in the parliament already”) but calls for a protest against his arrival found little support.
However, all eyes were on the streamed meeting between Zelensky and President Rumen Radev, who has displayed, over the past several years, an increasingly anti-reformist and pro-Russian stance. Around 2020 Radev was critical of ex-PM Boyko Borissov and GERB’s numerous corruption controversies, supported citizens’ protests, and appeared closer to reformist parties. However, Radev’s attitude changed around the Presidential elections in November 2021 and furthermore after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After We Continue the Change, which was governing since late 2021, expressed a pro-Ukraine and pro-military aid stance, Radev – who, officially, condemned the war – turned vehemently against Kiril Petkov’s cabinet and eventually tried to overturn reforms with his interim cabinets. Radev’s interim PM’s, Stefan Yanev in 2021 and Galab Donev in 2022-2023, all made sure that the caretaker cabinet will stick to the President’s vision which has also included scepticism on North Macedonia’s ascension to the EU, a detail which remains part of the pro-Russia playbook in Bulgaria.
In the meeting with Zelensky, streamed on social media, Radev did not tone down his position that Ukraine should not be armed anymore, and that diplomacy is the only way for de-escalation of “the conflict”. This fact alone showcases a surprising self-confidence by Radev, given that this attitude will solidify his image as a Kremlin proxy. It also gives more room for long-standing speculations that Radev is touting his own political project. He won his two terms as president as an independent supported by the Socialists, but as their electorate is shrinking, Radev might feel free to ditch them away and explore how far he can go with a party of his own.
Radev’s choice of words visibly triggered Zelensky, who retorted sarcastically: “God forbid some tragedy come upon and you should be in my place. And if people with shared values do not help, what will you do? Would you say: Putin, please grab Bulgarian territory?”
The videos of the exchange went viral on Twitter and YouTube, and many wrote on social media that Zelensky was acting much more like a leader representing Bulgaria’s interests than the actual President. As one recent tweet reads: “I see that in this meeting there was only one true President and that wasn’t ours.”
The heated exchange was not mentioned in the Presidency’s press release after the meeting. In a press conference later the same day, Zelensky told Bulgaria media that Radev “thinks that it's an act of escalation to give Ukraine aid, while I think it's an act of protection. We have completely different philosophies” but added that “I won’t criticise the President since I’m a guest and I respect your country”.
A morale boost for the pro-Western camp
“Whether he meant it intentionally or not, with this visit Zelensky became a key figure in local politics and practically a leader of change in Bulgaria. It’s not coincidental that all politicians who have sworn in introducing reforms, even candidates in the [forthcoming] mayoral elections, were there to support what he symbolises - freedom, integrity, bravery”, military expert and former Defence Minister Velizar Shalamanov told the Bulgarian National Radio on Saturday. Even some of the controversial politicians tried to make a quick PR move by lining up to take a photo with Ukraine’s president. Among them, tycoon and Magnitsky-sanctioned member of Movement for Rights and Freedoms Delyan Peevski and GERB leader Boyko Borissov.
What became apparent in the next few days, was that Zelensky's arrival actually took the President by surprise. On Monday, Radev once again criticised the government's plans to increase aid to Ukraine and said that Zelensky's arrival was not coordinated with him, as the invitation was sent by PM Denkov. "I hope that from now on the Ministerial Council will follow the most elementary procedures and protocols, so that such events can be coordinated", Radev commented to local media.
On Monday, the Ministry of Defence issued a statement in which the institution pointed to the Presidency as a source of “manipulation of the public’s opinion by promoting untrue claims” and wilfully trying to “destabilise the government”.
Essentially, Zelensky’s presence validated the pro-Western view of the cabinet carved out after five general elections between 2021-2023. But it didn’t muzzle the pro-Russian. The game between the two sides is still on.
