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One year after Poland’s pivotal parliamentary elections, the atmosphere of political upheaval and social optimism that followed October 15, 2023, has somewhat dimmed in the collective memory. Global crises such as the escalating conflict in the Middle East and Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, alongside domestic events like severe flooding but also internal political battles and media skirmishes, have overshadowed the transformative nature of that election. At the time, many Polish media outlets—particularly those sympathetic to the opposition—characterized the results as nothing short of a "political shock" and "social miracle”. Headlines celebrated the victory as “The impossible has become true!" and framed the election as one of the most significant democratic moments in Poland’s recent history.
A year on, against the background of a mixed government record, much of that enthusiasm has faded.
Tusk is (and always has been) a populist, but something has changed significantly in his rhetoric
In the days leading up to Poland’s October 2023 parliamentary elections, few could have predicted the scale of the opposition’s victory, particularly securing an unprecedented 50-seat majority. Forecasts leaned toward a more evenly split outcome, raising concerns about potential gridlock and even early elections due to the difficulty in forming a government. However, in a dramatic turn of events, the opposition’s fortunes changed in the final stretch of the campaign, largely driven by a wave of social mobilization that resulted in a record-breaking voter turnout—an impressive 74%, one of the highest in Europe.
This electoral shift was fueled, in large part, by the unprecedented engagement of young voters and women, two key demographics that rallied behind Donald Tusk's opposition bloc. Their support was instrumental in the opposition’s success, but now they are holding Tusk’s government accountable, pushing for the reforms and changes that were central to his campaign promises. As these voters begin to demand action on the issues that motivated them to turn out in such large numbers, the weight of expectation falls heavily on Tusk’s administration.
Tusk’s campaign was marked by ambitious promises, encapsulated in his “100 specifics for the first 100 days of government”. In the final days of the election, he made a bold declaration: “We will win, we will hold them accountable, we will right the wrongs, and we will reconcile”. To his credit, the first two parts of that pledge have materialized—they won the election and have begun the process of political reckoning. However, the promise of reconciliation—the idea that Poland’s bitter political divisions would end—remains elusive.
Despite his aspirations, the so-called “Polish-Polish war” continues. While Tusk’s government may operate with a different style compared to his predecessor Mateusz Morawiecki and/or Jarosław Kaczyński, the deep polarization in Polish society persists. The fault lines that divide the nation are as pronounced as ever, leading many to conclude that this promise of unity was always a lofty goal—perhaps an impossible one. Tusk can hardly be blamed entirely for this failure, as reconciliation requires willing partners on both sides, and the opposition to reconciliation remains strong from many quarters.
Yet, Tusk’s government faces growing criticism, not only from political commentators but also from the very voters who entrusted him with their support. Many feel that some of the other key promises that brought them to the ballot box have been neglected, leaving them with a sense of disappointment and frustration at the pace of change.
In the first year of Poland’s new coalition government, formed after the October 15, 2023 elections, progress on the much-publicized list of "100 specifics" has been slow. By March 2024, only a handful of these promises had been fully realized. Among the achievements touted by the government are Poland's commitment to anti-violence policies, reinstating reimbursements for in vitro fertilization procedures, halting deforestation in key natural areas, and securing long-awaited EU funds.
However, some critics question whether the unlocking of EU funds should be labeled as a true success. They argue that the more relevant benchmark is how these funds will be utilized and the long-term impact of these investments. This criticism highlights broader concerns about Donald Tusk’s governing style—specifically, his inclination toward populist gestures over substantial policy decisions driven by expert advice.
A clear example of this trend emerged during the campaign in September 2023, when Tusk made an unexpected promise at a rally in Tarnów. His party had an extensively developed education reform plan, supported by experts, local governments, and educators. Yet, Tusk set aside this carefully crafted proposal in favor of populist rhetoric, famously pledging to "eliminate homework in primary schools”. This promise, reportedly inspired by a request from a young boy named Maciek at a previous rally, was criticized as emblematic of the government’s reliance on simplistic slogans rather than substantive policy initiatives.
There is growing sentiment, increasingly voiced today, that Civic Platform's (PO) 2023 election campaign revolved around a singular objective: defeating the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS). Critics argue that Tusk’s political machinery focused so intensely on the notion that a third term for PiS would be catastrophic for Poland that little attention was given to developing a comprehensive policy agenda. The message, they suggest, was aimed at leveraging public dissatisfaction with Jarosław Kaczyński's government rather than offering a detailed vision for the future.
Kaczyński's brand of populism has been centered on fueling societal fears and scapegoating marginalized groups—refugees, LGBTQ+ communities, and others—who are easy targets due to their minority status and inability to retaliate politically. His approach, blending social conservatism with an authoritarian tilt, has also involved weakening independent institutions to consolidate PiS power.
Tusk’s so-called "smiling populism”, by comparison, relied on promises that some critics labeled as unrealistic or overly simplistic. Many of these pledges, such as the notion that removing PiS appointees from office would solve many of the country's problems, lacked a deeper framework for systemic change.
However, in recent months, there has been a noticeable shift in Tusk’s rhetoric. His language has started to echo right-wing narratives more closely, raising questions about whether this is merely a superficial shift in communication, or if it signals a deeper alignment with the populist playbook once wielded by PiS.
The first year of PO's rule did not bring a breakthrough, only a change of costumes
In the year since Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) came to power, many of the promises from their "100 specifics" remain unfulfilled, revealing the challenges of governing after an intense and populist campaign. This list of ambitious pledges helped draw a significant number of voters to the polls, swayed by the prospect of immediate and sweeping reforms. However, one year on, many Poles have grown disillusioned, particularly over delays in critical areas like raising the tax-free income threshold to €14,000, the lack of progress on affordable housing, and, perhaps most notably, the failure to liberalize Poland's restrictive abortion laws—a promise that motivated many women to vote for KO in the first place.
This unmet expectation has left many of Tusk’s supporters feeling disappointed. In fact, some now draw comparisons between Donald Tusk and Jarosław Kaczyński, pointing out that, despite a change in leadership, the substance of governance feels remarkably similar. Tusk has attributed his government’s stalling to resistance from coalition partners, particularly the Polish People's Party (PSL), which leans conservative on social issues, and Poland 2050, a centrist group reluctant to push for progressive changes. He has also cited obstruction by Poland’s president, who has vetoed key legislation, and the influence of a Constitutional Tribunal still dominated by PiS appointees. This echoes the early complaints of PiS’s own Beata Szydło, who blamed judicial institutions and European interference for her party’s early struggles in office.
The parallels between the two administrations go beyond delays and institutional conflicts. On policy, Tusk's government has adopted a significant portion of PiS’s social and economic agenda. Programs like the 800+ child benefit, substantial increases to the minimum wage, record levels of defense spending, and strict immigration controls have carried over from PiS’s rule to the current government. Even on contentious issues like the Green Deal and energy transition, Tusk’s government has maintained a largely passive stance, aligning with PiS’s cautious approach to environmental reforms.
These overlaps raise deeper questions about the state of Polish politics. Despite their rhetorical differences and opposing campaign styles, both parties—ostensibly at opposite ends of the political spectrum—are converging on key policy areas. Both PiS and PO position themselves as defenders of Polish sovereignty, freedom, and democracy, with populist undertones that appeal to their respective voter bases. And just as PiS sought to consolidate power through media control and sidelining independent institutions, similar criticisms have been leveled at Tusk’s government. Public reprimands of cultural institutions, dismissals of key officials at press conferences, and state media favoring pro-government journalists have led to concerns about a lack of transparency and fairness.
The shift in Tusk’s language is particularly notable. In recent months, he has adopted a more nationalistic tone, echoing some of the rhetoric once associated with PiS’s hardliners like Mariusz Błaszczak, the former defense minister. Tusk’s frequent references to securing borders and his focus on military investments have led some to argue that he is trying to win over centrist and right-wing voters, aligning his message more closely with PiS’s.
This convergence of policies between PiS and PO has sparked debate about why the anticipated political “breakthrough” has not materialized in Poland. For many, the answer lies in the reality that both parties are responding to the same broader concerns—national security, economic stability, and social welfare—leaving little room for major ideological divergence. Thus, what was expected to be a significant political shift has instead turned into what some observers see as merely a change in style rather than substance.
Leftist economics and right wing politics
Over the past decade, Poland has experienced a profound shift in its political and economic landscape, driven by what could be described as a "revolution of aspirations”. When Donald Tusk returned to Polish politics in 2023, after his tenure as President of the European Council, he encountered a country very different from the one he had led in 2007-2014. The period of his absence saw an economic transformation that included the highest real wage growth in Europe, low unemployment, and a fast post-pandemic recovery. These accomplishments fundamentally altered the expectations of Polish society.
Under PiS’s leadership from 2015 to 2023, Poland moved away from the neoliberal policies that once dominated its economic framework, abandoning principles like fiscal conservatism, minimal state intervention, and privatization. Instead, PiS introduced expansive social programs like the 500+ child benefit scheme, large public investments, and a more interventionist state. This policy direction raised expectations for an active, caring government that prioritized social redistribution and state involvement in both economic and national security matters. It is this shift that Tusk's coalition has had to embrace, even as it tries to distinguish itself from PiS.
Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) has continued many of the policies introduced by PiS, further consolidating the idea of a more interventionist state. Record-high deficits, plans for building the "strongest army in Europe”, and visions of grand national projects, like hosting the Olympics in Warsaw, showcase a government determined to match the aspirations of a population that has come to expect both social benefits and economic growth. Whether in response to the development of artificial intelligence or crises related to border security and public health, the government’s answer has consistently been to promise more public investment and state action. This is not the minimal state once envisioned under liberal capitalism; instead, it's a state more akin to PiS's model, focused on welfare, protectionism, and heavy state involvement.
At the same time, Polish politics has taken a rightward turn on issues of national identity, patriotism, and historical memory. Tusk’s government, like its predecessor, has adopted a strong stance on questions of national dignity. It has pursued policies that emphasize Poland’s sovereignty and rightful place as a regional power. This has included seeking reparations from Germany, battling Ukraine over historical grievances like the Volhynia massacre, and insisting on Poland’s role in shaping Eastern Europe’s geopolitical future. These moves reflect the aspirations of a Polish populace that desires the material benefits of Western Europe without the social disruptions they perceive in the West.
This convergence between PO and PiS shows how much Polish politics has evolved. The center of gravity in political discourse has shifted left on economics but right on national identity, creating an environment where the differences between the two largest parties are less about the substance of their policies and more about the personalities that lead them. Polish voters, it seems, wanted the policies of PiS but with a leader like Tusk—someone whose style aligns more with European liberalism, but whose policies do not stray far from the populist model PiS pioneered.
The result? Poles got a version of PiS they are not ashamed of, with a leader who presents himself as a modern European statesman, yet implements policies rooted in the populist appeal of his predecessors. In this way, Tusk's government exemplifies how Polish politics has adapted to the revolution of aspirations that redefined the expectations of its electorate.
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