French expert: Russia stepped-up its destabilisation efforts in Moldova

French expert: Russia stepped-up its destabilisation efforts in Moldova
© EPA-EFE/DUMITRU DORU   |   French President Emmanuel Macron (L) walks with Moldova's President Maia Sandu (R) during his visit in Chisinau, Moldova, 15 June 2022.

Russia's strategy in Moldova is to insist on discrediting the EU and undermining the European integration process and to put less emphasis on its promotion, according to Florent Parmentier, associate researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute (Centre Grande Europe) and secretary general of the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po (CEVIPOF) in Paris, one of the best young researchers French on the ex-Soviet space and a good connoisseur of the realities in Moldova.

Veridica talked with Florent Parmentier about the hybrid war waged by Russia and its internal actors in Moldova, the evolution of Russian propaganda narratives in Moldova, upcoming presidential elections and the referendum on the European integration of Moldova that they will have this fall, the situation in the Gagauz UTA and the breakaway region of Transnistria, but also other topics of interest.

VERIDICA: According to your observations, how much has Russia's hybrid war against Moldova and the pro-European government in Chisinau intensified after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022?

Florent Parmentier: In November 2020, President Maia Sandu expressed her desire to move Moldovan politics away from geopolitical alternatives and focus instead on domestic reforms to solidify a pro-European Union direction.

At that time, the idea of Moldova opening negotiations with the European Union during Sandu's term seemed premature or overly ambitious. Consequently, the President avoided making any overtures toward Russia without seeking to antagonise the country overly.

The war in Ukraine has completely changed the landscape. Moldova initially responded to the conflict by welcoming hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians following Russia's aggression.

This significantly tarnished Russia's image, and pro-Russian parties found themselves unable to support the war directly. Since then, the Moldovan government has taken several steps to strengthen its ties with Europe, while Russia has ramped up destabilisation efforts to discredit and weaken Maia Sandu, particularly among her supporters in Gagauzia.

Hybrid threats are currently at a very high level and are expected to intensify further in the context of the upcoming presidential campaign.

VERIDICA: What are the primary narratives that Russia has been promoting against Moldova since the submission of Moldova's EU accession application in March 2022 to the present? How do you perceive these narratives evolving, necessitating our constant vigilance and analysis?

Florent Parmentier: Russian authorities seem to prefer an approach that focuses not on defending Moscow in the war in Ukraine but on using narratives aimed at discrediting the European integration process, criticising the current government, and condemning Moldova's European partners.

The launch of the political group 'Pobeda' [Victory] in April, for instance, came with criticism of the EU (and the referendum on Europe) and stoked fears about a possible reunification between Romania and Moldova.

VERIDICA: These narratives can be very contradictory: how can they accuse the government of not being truly pro-European, claim that this goal is out of reach, and argue that Moldova risks losing its sovereignty?

Florent Parmentier: There are countless examples of such tactics over the past two years of war. In this area, the NGO Watchdog does a tremendous job of monitoring, especially on social media platforms like Telegram and TikTok, unlike Facebook or television channels that authorities can control.

Casting doubt on the current team's competence to carry out reforms and bring Moldova closer to the EU is likely to be one of the most frequently used lines of attack in the near future.

VERIDICA: Moldova is one of the least resilient states in Eastern Europe to Russian propaganda. How do you see the authorities in Chisinau dealing with these hybrid attacks, and what is the contribution of external partners to improve resilience against Russian propaganda?

Florent Parmentier: Many reasons can explain this vulnerability to Russian hybrid threats. Moldova is home to significant Russian-speaking populations and other ethnic minorities, such as the Gagauz.

Obviously, these groups can be more sympathetic to Russian perspectives, making them potential vectors for Russian influence and propaganda, especially in a polarised political debate.

Since its independence in 1991, the country has experienced significant political instability and corruption, which weakened state institutions and public trust in government. This environment creates fertile ground for Russian hybrid tactics, such as disinformation campaigns, to exacerbate divisions and undermine the government.

In this context, I would say that strengthening State institutions is probably the most important aspect to face these hybrid threats.

Implementing robust anti-corruption reforms, ensuring the independence of the judiciary, and building administrative capacity would greatly help increase public trust. A second aspect is reinforcing information security (media literacy, supporting independent media, combating disinformation, etc.). A multifaceted strategy is required.

VERIDICA: How do you rate the military partnership between France and Moldova? Moldova managed to acquire a radar with France's help, but elements still need to be added for an air defence system. How do you see this partnership continuing?

Florent Parmentier: The personal relationship between Emmanuel Macron and Maia Sandu is at an exceptional level compared to any historical precedent.

Numerous visits have taken place between Chisinau and Paris by the President and several ministers, and the reciprocal is also true.

The challenge for both leaders now is to transform their excellent personal relations into durable bilateral ties based on concrete cooperations beyond what already exists, particularly in the cultural domain. It's worth noting that the Alliance Française opened its doors in Moldova as early as 1989, even before independence!

The war in Ukraine has sparked a project of closer military cooperation between Moldova and France, symbolised by the opening of a defence mission, which was the focus of Maia Sandu's visit to Paris last March.

Firstly, a defence agreement establishes the legal framework for future training, regular dialogue, and intelligence sharing. Secondly, this cooperation includes material aspects such as radars and an air defense system. The industrial partnership allows for long-term engagement.

VERIDICA: How do you see the destabilising actions of the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor and Moscow against the pro-European government in Chisinau? There are two opinions - that the authorities should intervene more decisively against those who practice destabilising actions or that any more brutal intervention would be considered an abuse of the opposition. How do you see this situation?

The case of Ilan Shor presents an interesting political dilemma.

Technically and potentially legitimately, a party can be banned if it violates national laws, incites violence, threatens the country's territorial integrity, or receives illegitimate foreign influence.

If the party is proven to receive substantial financial or logistical support from Russia or other foreign actors aiming to destabilise Moldova, then banning it is justified. The facts must be established, and a fair trial must be held.

However, banning a party could have disastrous consequences for Moldova's international reputation regarding fundamental rights. Additionally, it could turn the Shor party into a martyr, with supporters viewing the ban as evidence of government repression, increasing social tensions.

From the authorities' perspective, banning the Shor party during the municipal elections in the fall of 2023 had its own legitimacy, based on the dangers posed by this party, which is associated with "criminal groups."

However, the Moldovan Supreme Court's decision undermined this strategy, ruling according to the law. This outcome should prompt the authorities to proceed with great caution in such matters.

VERIDICA: Can the Gagauz territorial-administrative autonomy and the Transnistrian separatist region be platforms from which pro-Russian forces could launch various destabilising actions against Chisinau, or do you consider that the Chisinau authorities have the situation under control?

Florent Parmentier: The two regions are experiencing contrasting situations. The leadership in Transnistria is in a relatively worse position compared to before the war in Ukraine.

Several Ukrainian representatives have mentioned the possibility of military intervention in Transnistria to eliminate this pocket of Russian influence. However, the risk may be less about military escalation, which Chisinau opposes, and more about socio-political collapse. Therefore, it would be surprising if Russia focuses all its efforts on Transnistria.

In contrast, Gagauzia was already very opposed to Maia Sandu during the 2020 election, and relations with the central government have remained very difficult since then. However, the region only accounts for 4% of the population. Neither Transnistria nor Gagauzia wants to participate in any way in Russia's war against Ukraine.

In other words, the authorities in Chisinau will have a lot to contend with in the coming months to resist Russia's destabilisation. Still, Moscow's influence is less significant than at any other time in Moldova's history. With the help of the European Union mission, the authorities have so far demonstrated the necessary calm and vigilance. Discernment will remain crucial leading up to the presidential elections.

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